Last week, in Part 1 of this article, we took a look back at the 2007 NFL season Over/Under win totals, and went through the process I use to formulate my own numbers. This week, we’ll look forward to the 2008 campaign, examining who really faces the toughest schedules and how much tougher or easier each team’s schedule actually is compared to last year. We’ll also shred the NFL’s 2008 "official" strength of schedule numbers – the numbers that the bookmakers use as a foundation to formulate this year’s season Over/Under win totals.

I have intentionally not included any "hard" numbers in the accompanying chart. Instead, the teams are ranked from 1-32, with one being the easiest and 32 being the hardest in every category. I am willing to share my process and my rankings, but to give out every actual "number" that my formulas have created in a publicly available newsletter is not something I’m willing to do – I want these numbers to be as meaningful for myself and my clients next year as they are this year. The 1-32 rankings will serve our purposes for this article just fine without giving away the entire store. It’s important to note that the key rankings are on the margins, not in the middle. If you plot all the numbers that lead to the 1-32 rankings for each team, you’ll get a graph that looks very much like the standard "Bell Curve" you learned in statistics class years ago.

In a Bell Curve, the majority of the rankings are fairly close to one another in the middle of the spectrum. But, say the top quartile (top eight) and the bottom quartile (bottom eight) are spread out along the perimeter; a significant differential from those teams in the middle of the pack. Therefore, teams with a ranking at the top or at the bottom of any category are absolutely the teams that we should be focusing on.

Let’s start with the first column, the 2007 final strength of schedule numbers for each team. As I discussed last week, these numbers are moderately subjective, based on my power ratings for each team on the week their opponents faced them. In my opinion, this is a much better starting point than just a final Won-Loss record for each team at the completion of the season, accurately reflecting injuries, momentum and other key factors. The numbers clearly show that four playoff teams from 2007 faced the four easiest schedules of any opponent: Seattle, Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Pittsburgh. The Saints, Vikings, Cardinals, Titans and Browns all faced easier than average schedules. As a result of these numbers, my first thoughts are that all of these teams are not quite as good as they might look on paper heading into 2008, with the top four teams in particular likely headed for at least a modest decline

On the other end of the spectrum, the Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Redskins, Eagles and Texans all faced abnormally tough schedules in 2007. Only one of those teams (Washington) was able to overcome that tough slate and earn a trip to the postseason. Atlanta, Detroit, Jacksonville and Carolina also faced tougher than average slates. Therefore, all of these teams are probably a little better than they look on paper coming into the new campaign after facing a litany of tough opposition last year. From here, we’ll take a cursory look at the "official" strength of schedule numbers for this year, based exclusively on last year’s final standings. I include this chart for one reason and one reason only – to poke holes in it. My goal here is to show you, the reader, what teams are being penalized by the betting marketplace for a supposedly tough slate of opposition when the reality is quite different. Conversely, I’m also looking at the other end of the spectrum – teams that supposedly face a very weak slate, who, in fact, are facing a much tougher slate than the "official" numbers would indicate.

The final column in the chart lists a ranking of this year’s strength of schedule, by team, based on this year’s season Over/Under win totals. This is another concept that I explained in detail in Part 1 of this essay last week. This week, we’ll look at the specifics.

The "official" numbers show that the Steelers play the toughest schedule in the NFL this year, followed by the Colts. I wouldn’t argue with either prognosis – my numbers show the exact same thing. Considering that Pittsburgh faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL last year, while the Colts were ‘middle of the pack’, my only thoughts regarding these two teams is whether to bet them Under their season win total or not – this type of dramatic strength of schedule differential from year to year ensures that I won’t be betting these two teams to go Over their win total in 2008.

We start to see some dramatic differentials between the official numbers and my numbers as we progress through the chart, team by team. Take a look at the Buffalo Bills as a prime example. According to the official sources, the Bills face a fairly easy schedule in ’08, ranked 6th easiest out of 32 teams. But, based on this year’s win totals, the Bills face a tougher than average slate in ’08, ranked 22 out of 32 teams. In other words, Buffalo is likely overvalued in this particular betting marketplace, another team that I’ll take an ‘Under or Pass’ mentality with.

Look at Minnesota as a prime example of a team who’s strength of schedule is getting too much respect from the betting marketplace. The official numbers show the Vikings as a team facing a tough slate, but my numbers show a much easier one. Therefore, the Vikings become a prime ‘Over’ candidate for this year’s win total recommendations. Jacksonville and Chicago are in the same category, particularly when we consider that both squads played a tougher than normal schedule last year.

* Ranked from easiest (1) to hardest (32)