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Posted: 12:49 PM
When I look at NFL strength of schedule numbers that use last year’s wins and losses as their lone barometer, I have to laugh. A true strength of schedule (SOS) number will incorporate this year’s projections, not a look back at last year. Look for a blog entry from me on that subject next week.
But there is something to be gained from looking at last year’s SOS – the differential between last year’s schedule and this year’s. It’s a problematic exercise, however, because the numbers from the full season for last year do not accurately display the current form of the opposing team at the time the game was played. Here are some examples.
Teams that played the Tennessee Titans in the first five weeks of the season were playing the weakest team in the NFL. Tennessee started 0-5, losing those games by an average of 15 points per game. But if you played the Titans in December, you were facing a red hot juggernaut, as they reeled off six consecutive victories. Buffalo, too, was a team that played much better in December than September.
Ben Roethlisberger missed time due to his appendectomy. Matt Hasselbeck missed time due to injury as well.
The Eagles went 4-1 to open the season, then 1-5 in their next six games before closing out the season with five straight wins. Philly was a completely different team in November than they were behind Jeff Garcia in December.
The Giants were as good as anybody in the NFL through the first half of the season, then went 2-6 down the stretch. Big difference if you played the Giants early vs. playing them late.
It’s the same story with the Falcons, who started out the season looking like a juggernaut, 5-2 in their first seven games. Standard strength of schedule formulations show no difference if you faced Atlanta in September or in December, when they were in the midst of a 2-7 slide to end the season.
Obviously, there are numerous other examples. I’ve just cherry-picked a few for demonstration purposes. My TRUE strength of schedule indicator is far more accurate than anything I’ve seen elsewhere, giving us a good barometer to compare last year’s SOS with what teams are expected to face in 2007.
The numbers below are an average of the power ratings that I make and use each week for my NFL handicapping. However, due to the bizarre nature of Week 17, I excluded that week entirely, making it a 15 game average, not a 16 game average. Remember, the Lions beat the Cowboys Week 17, etc, as numerous teams were resting starters.
The Jets and the Bills played twelve common opponents last year, and two games against each other. In their two ‘other’ games, New York faced Cleveland and Oakland (Week 17; not counted in my averages). Buffalo’s two other games were San Diego and Baltimore (also Week 17, and not counted). Clearly, the Bills played ONE game that was tougher than what the Jets played. Their strength of schedule numbers for last year should be slightly tougher than the Jets.
But the reality was that the Bills played a bunch of teams when those teams were hot, while the Jets played many of those same teams when those teams were struggling. Hence the disparity between the two strength of schedules, despite having only ONE opponent that was different for the purposes of this study.
Teams are listed from the most difficult 2006 schedule (the Giants) to the weakest 2006 schedule (the Bears).
| Team |
weekly pr |
| Giants |
15.33 |
| Bengals |
15.26 |
| Bucs |
15.23 |
| Bills |
15.13 |
| Texans |
15.10 |
| Browns |
14.96 |
| Titans |
14.60 |
| Broncos |
14.56 |
| Dolphins |
14.56 |
| Raiders |
14.53 |
| Jaguars |
14.40 |
| Redskins |
14.40 |
| Steelers |
14.36 |
| Ravens |
14.13 |
| Chiefs |
14.06 |
| Falcons |
14.00 |
| 49ers |
13.96 |
| Patriots |
13.93 |
| Colts |
13.80 |
| Saints |
13.76 |
| Cowboys |
13.73 |
| Lions |
13.70 |
| Cardinals |
13.66 |
| Seahawks |
13.56 |
| Jets |
13.53 |
| Panthers |
13.50 |
| Rams |
13.40 |
| Eagles |
13.36 |
| Vikings |
13.33 |
| Packers |
13.23 |
| Chargers |
12.96 |
| Bears |
12.26 |
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Wednesday, November 19, 2008
| Posted: 12:50 PM 1) Florida: The Gators rank below Alabama in the national polls, thanks to their one point loss to Ole Miss back in September. But any oddsmaker in the world will tell you that the Gators will be favored over the Crimson Tide when these two teams meet in the SEC Championship Game.
2) USC: Are we seeing some slippage from the most dominating defense in the country? Last week, Stanford became the first team to gain more than 200 true rushing yards against the Trojans, moving the ball on the ground at a 5.25 yards per carry clip.
3) Texas Tech: If Oklahoma beats Texas Tech on Saturday, the national media will call it an upset. Again, as any oddsmaker can tell you, the Sooners are a full touchdown favorite over the Red Raiders this weekend. Texas Tech has lost by double digits on every visit to Norman since 1996.
4) Alabama: Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide get a week off in preparation for the Iron Bowl against in-state rival Auburn. ‘Bama has lost six straight to the Tigers, the longest losing streak for the Tide in the history of the series.
5) Texas: Colt McCoy is playing like the single best quarterback in college football these days, leading the nation with his 77.2 completion percentage, with a 30-7 touchdown to interception ratio. Even more impressively, McCoy is the Longhorns leading rusher as well.
6) Oklahoma: I expect the Sooners to take a significant leap up in the rankings if, as the betting marketplace expects, they take care of business at home against Texas Tech on Saturday. Remember, each of Oklahoma’s nine previous victories this season has come by at least two TD’s.
7) Missouri: While the Big 12 South powerhouses beat up on each other each week, Missouri is quietly lurking in the background, waiting for their opportunity to pull off a major upset in the Big 12 title game. Remember, the Tigers were controversially denied a BCS Bowl berth last year.
8) Penn State: The Nittany Lions didn’t suffer any sort of a major hangover last week following their crushing loss to Iowa. Then again, they played the weakest team in the Big 10, Indiana, in the midst of a down year for the Hoosiers. Things get much tougher this week against Michigan State.
9) Ohio State: Since losing to Penn State, the Buckeyes have gained more than 550 true rushing yards in their last two contests, dominating Illinois and Northwestern on the ground. But if they face a strong run defense in their bowl, will Terrelle Pryor be able to pass them to victory?
10) Utah: The Utes will be BCS bowl bound if they can get past a feisty BYU team on Saturday, improving their record to 12-0. In ’04, with a BCS bowl berth (and the corresponding huge payday for the Mountain West Conference) on the line, the Utes rolled the Cougars 52-21.
11) Georgia: Since their national TV win over an Arizona State team that turned out to be a fraud, the Bulldogs have been burning the cash of their backers. Marck Richt’s squad is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven ballgames, beating only LSU by enough of a margin to cash.
12) Boise State: The Broncos are playing their best football of the season right here in November, peaking at just the right time. Still, the possibility exists that an undefeated Boise team with a road win at Oregon could get shut out of the BCS bowls, thanks to Utah’s success.
13) Oklahoma State: The best pointspread team in the country has now lost two straight against the number, following a relatively sluggish, lethargic showing in Boulder against the Buffaloes last Saturday. Don’t sleep on Okie State – they’ll get their chance to knock off Oklahoma next week!
14) TCU: The Horned Frogs have never played in the Las Vegas Bowl, where the Mountain West champs face a mid-tier PAC-10 foe. If Utah beats BYU, TCU will get their first Vegas Bowl appearance on a field where they’ve won by more than two TD’s twice in the last three seasons.
15) Oregon: The Ducks continued their incoherent level of play again last week. In the first half against Arizona, Oregon scored on every possession, leading 45-17 at the break. In the second half, they blew the entire lead, barely hanging on for the win and needing a late TD to cover.
16) Oregon State: The Beavers continued success raises an intriguing possibility. Oregon State will win the PAC-10 title if they take care of business in their last two games, but a team they beat – USC – still has the potential to leap the Beavers right into the national championship game.
17) Ball State: The Cardinals face their single toughest test of the season on Wednesday Night, travelling to snowy, windy, cold Mt Pleasant, Michigan to take on a Central Michigan squad that is 21-2 straight up in their last 23 MAC Conference games.
18) Pittsburgh: Dave Wannstedt has a Big East title firmly in his sights. The Panthers control their own destiny with games against Cincinnati and West Virginia in the next two weeks; the two teams they’ll need to beat in order to reach a BCS bowl for the first time since ’04.
19) Michigan State: The Spartans are in line for a piece of the Big 10 title if they can pull off the upset in Happy Valley this Saturday. However, the Spartans are not likely to end their extended Rose Bowl drought unless hated Michigan can pull off the road upset at Ohio State as well.
20) BYU: The Cougars are 22-1 straight up in the Mountain West Conference since losing their season finale in overtime to Utah back in ’05. They’ve beaten Utah in each of the last two years, but failed to cover the spread as a favorite either time. This year, however, the Cougs are underdogs to the Utes.
21) Cincinnati: The Bearcats make a return to my Top 25 this week, following their third straight impressive win. If Cinci can beat Pitt at home this weekend, they’re BCS Bowl Bound for the first time in the history of the program….assuming they can take care of Syracuse the following week.
22) Arizona: The Wildcats have been hanging out in this low 20’s range of my rankings for most of the season – good enough to win the games they are supposed to win; not good enough to pull off any major upsets when stepping up in class against the better squads that they’ve faced.
23) Florida State: I’m not going to drop the Seminoles out of my Top 25 entirely, despite their poor showing on national TV last Saturday Night, losing at home to Boston College. The Eagles played their best game of the season; the Seminoles couldn’t step up and match their execution.
24) LSU: The only thing separating LSU from an embarrassing home loss to Troy was a 30-0 fourth quarter, as they rallied from a 31-3 deficit to steal the win away from the Trojans. Les Miles won the national championship last year. This year, in the football-crazy SEC, he’s already under fire.
25) South Carolina: South Carolina entered their game against the Gators as the best defensive team in the SEC. 56 points and 519 yards allowed later, the Gamecocks were humiliated. Coach Spurrier: “We got clobbered. Sometimes getting your butt beat real good is better than a one-pointer or two-pointer.”
26) Mississippi
27) Miami-FL
28) Iowa
29) North Carolina
30) Georgia Tech
31) Boston College
32) West Virginia
33) Virginia Tech
34) Nebraska
35) Wisconsin
36) California
37) Maryland
38) Houston
39) Notre Dame
40) Tulsa
41) Rutgers
42) Wake Forest
43) Illinois
44) Clemson
45) Kansas
46) Air Force
47) Connecticut
48) Virginia
49) Arizona State
50) South Florida
51) Central Michigan
52) Nevada
53) Stanford
54) Auburn
55) Arkansas
56) North Carolina State
57) Baylor
58) Northwestern
59) Minnesota
60) Louisville
61) Rice
62) Western Michigan
63) Southern Miss
64) Vanderbilt
65) East Carolina
66) Navy
67) Buffalo
68) Kentucky
69) Bowling Green
70) Troy
71) Louisiana Tech
72) Michigan
73) UTEP
74) Tennessee
75) New Mexico
76) Mississippi State
77) Northern Illinois
78) Memphis
79) Colorado
80) UCLA
81) Purdue
82) Fresno State
83) Louisiana-Lafayette
84) Duke
85) Marshall
86) UNLV
87) Hawaii
88) Florida Atlantic
89) Colorado State
90) Kansas State
91) Temple
92) Akron
93) Army
94) Texas A&M
95) Florida International
96) Central Florida
97) San Jose State
98) Utah State
99) Middle Tennessee State
100) Toledo
101) Kent
102) Miami-Ohio
103) UAB
104) Arkansas State
105) Louisiana-Monroe
106) Eastern Michigan
107) Ohio U
108) Indiana
109) Wyoming
110) Iowa State
111) Syracuse
112) Tulane
113) Washington
114) SMU
115) New Mexico State
116) Western Kentucky
117) San Diego State
118) Idaho
119) North Texas
120) Washington State
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| Tuesday, November 18, 2008
| Posted: 11:30 AM Prior to the start of the young NBA season, I highlighted the New Jersey Nets as a potential pointspread overachiever for the 2008-09 campaign. What follows is a running commentary, highlighting some excerpts from my original blog entry (in italics and quotes) followed by my current thoughts after watching this team play for three weeks (in regular type).
“The concept of "buy low, sell high" certainly applies to the Nets. Nobody – NOBODY – expects much from New Jersey this year. Read any NBA preview out there and you’ll see the Nets routinely listed as the very worst team in the Eastern Conference, ranked 14th or 15th out of the 15 teams in every preseason prediction that I’ve come across. Their season Over/Under win total is sitting at 27.5 wins, lowest in the East. The betting marketplace expects an ugly year in New Jersey.”
With a 4-5 straight up record, the Nets haven’t made any sort of a leap in the view of the general public or the betting marketplace. That being said, scouting around the internet, the Nets appear to have gained a little bit of support; no longer considered one of the very worst teams in the league. Most power rankings have the Nets in the low 20’s out of 30 NBA teams, a fairly accurate depiction in my eyes.
“But the Nets are not true bottom feeders. In a star-driven betting marketplace, New Jersey is being penalized for moving Richard Jefferson and Jason Kidd, despite the fact that the loss of two veteran playmakers has improved the roster significantly thanks to the pieces that they brought in return.”
Vince Carter is still very much an NBA superstar, averaging 23.8 points per game, 3.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists. But Carter is widely mistrusted by the betting public, a ‘second tier’ superstar. On this team, however, he is the clear veteran leader, and the Nets feed off his energy (or lack thereof). Carter is also, most assuredly, a go-to guy during crunch time, something that most true bottom feeders (Minnesota, anyone) don’t have.
“When we talk about team defense, the Nets also stand out. New Jersey is absolutely loaded with frontcourt promise; their most talented group of centers and forwards in decades. Head coach Lawrence Frank emphasizes a defensive approach, and he’ll have the bodies to do just that this year. Sean Williams, Yi Jianlian, Stomile Swift, Josh Boone, Eduardo Najera and Brook Lopez make up a stellar defensive sextet in the paint. These are blue collar guys, not petulant superstars. Don’t expect many easy drive and dish buckets in the key against this crew.”
This has been the Nets biggest weakness so far this season. The developing frontcourt has been riddled with injuries. Stromile Swift has yet to put on his uniform this season, suffering from a bad back. Josh Boone showed great promise as a shot-swatting interior defender, but he’s been sidelined with a turned ankle. Eduardo Najera sprained his neck. Sean Williams has largely been a non-factor, earning very limited minutes off the bench. Yi Jianlian is turning into a seven footer who won’t bang with the big boys, a perimeter oriented player. The bright spot of the bunch has been rookie center Brook Lopez, their #1 pick out of Stanford. In the Nets home-and-home sweep of the Hawks this past weekend, Lopez started at center, contributing 30 points, 16 boards and 7 blocks.
The Nets overall defense has been mediocre: 101 points per game allowed on 45.2% shooting. Their rebounding numbers are good, outboarding their foes by 1.5 rebounds per game, eighth best in the league. A closer look at the numbers indicates very clearly that their interior defense is very much a strong point. The Nets have struggled defending the perimeter, not the paint, allowing a whopping 41.5% shooting from beyond the arc so far this season. That’s dead last in the NBA, and a clear area of concern for head coach Lawrence Frank.
“Devin Harris is a better point guard right now than Jason Kidd was (and is), on both ends of the court. Getting rid of Kidd’s salary and off-court issues for a better, cheaper player who is ten years his junior was an amazing trade for New Jersey. Now in his second season as the starter here, look for Harris to show his stuff; a great defensive point guard with a knack for finding his teammates in position to make uncontested shots.”
It hasn’t even taken ten games for savvy NBA bettors to become aware of the impact that the Nets point guard has on their fortunes. Harris went through some early season struggles in the first few games, but found his way against the Pistons, engineering a New Jersey upset with a career high 38 point effort. But Harris got hurt in that game, forced to miss the Nets next three contests. New Jersey went 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS in those ballgames. As soon as Harris returned to the court, the Nets started winning again, pulling off back-2-back upsets over the Hawks. Harris had 33 points, 10 assists and 2 steals in one game; 30 points, 8 assists and 2 steals in the other.
Harris: “I’m in attack mode, commanding the paint...Confidence does amazing things. Maybe I wasn’t being aggressive enough. Maybe I didn’t fully understand what I needed to do. You never know until you try. The Detroit game kind of opened my eyes.”
Are the Nets going to win a championship this year? Of course not, not even a division title. Are they a potential playoff team? Probably not, in the rapidly improving Eastern Conference, although it’s possible that New Jersey could earn one of the final few seeds once April rolls around. Are the Nets still on my ‘buy low’ list? Absolutely! Remember, with Harris in the lineup, New Jersey is 4-2 ATS this season. It’s a very short sample size, but I firmly believe that it’s a leading indicator – there’s still money to be made betting on the Nets in appropriate spots in the weeks and months to come. |
| Monday, November 17, 2008
| Posted: 11:07 AM I’m not a true publicity whore, but I do try to self promote when the opportunity presents itself. I’ve had my fair share of major media reports. I’ve been prominently mentioned on ESPN.com in an article about baseball betting. I’ve had an article giving NCAA tournament betting tips in Playboy Magazine. I’ve been featured in the New York Times before, and the Wall Street Journal, as well as numerous other newspapers around the country. So publicity is nothing new.
I was moderately surprised, however, when Pulitzer Prize nominated reporter Alan Schwarz from the New York Times called me yesterday just a few minutes after the Chargers-Steelers game ended in major controversy. I knew that this was a big story in Las Vegas, but I had no idea that the national media would get involved. After all, the national media only covers sports betting stories when the word ‘scandal’, ‘pointshaving’ or ‘fix’ is in the headline. And, despite the bizarre ending of San Diego-Pittsburgh, I simply didn’t see the story as a scandal…initially, at least.
Well, the Times featured me in an article in today’s edition – you can read it RIGHT HERE. Schwarz was all over ESPN today, featured on Cold Pizza and ESPN’s First Take; dropping my name in each instance. Mike and Mike talked about the ending on their national ESPN radio show this morning. Even stoic, ultra-conservative NBC talked about the wild finish on Football Night in America and the halftime show of the Sunday Night game between Dallas and Washington. This little gambling story has turned into a major national issue.
Schwarz’s story is accurate. I had a Big Ticket play on San Diego for my clients, and a substantial wager on the Chargers in my pocket. San Diego certainly wasn’t the ‘right’ side in that game, but they weren’t the ‘wrong’ side either – it was a pointspread outcome that could have gone either way. And it did go either way. Repeatedly. In the closing seconds.
First, the Steelers punched in a touchdown with less than 30 seconds remaining in the game, which would have resulted in a five point win (assuming they made the extra point). The Chargers were +5/+5.5 on Friday, but the line had dropped to +4.5 by kickoff, even +4 in a few locations. Early San Diego bettors would have cashed had the Steelers won 15-10; late bettors would have lost. I’m certain that very few of my clients would have cashed a winning ticket on the play.
But the Steelers first touchdown of the game was called back on a holding penalty. Instead, Pittsburgh was forced to settle for the field goal, and the apparent 11-10 victory, the first 11-10 final in the history of the NFL.
Then came the zaniness, the insanity. San Diego did what teams do when they need a touchdown on the last play of the game, but have no chance to get it – they pulled the ‘multiple bad laterals’ play out of their playbook. Troy Polamalu knocked the ball down, picked it up and raced into the end zone for the Steelers touchdown with no time remaining on the clock. Game Over. Pittsburgh has to kick the extra point. Expected final score? 18-10. A tough, tough, tough beat.
I went ballistic. It doesn’t happen very often, but I lost my cool after that play. I’ve been running great lately: 15-4 in the last four weeks of NFL betting, 6-1 in college football on Saturday, 10-0 since a week ago Friday in the NBA. I’d been building some nice momentum, and making my clients very, very happy. This loss was a real streak snapper. It was brutal. I needed to release some steam, and went downstairs from my office to go outside and smash something.
I happened to turn on the radio downstairs, and the radio happened to be on the local broadcast of the Chargers game. The announcers were wondering why Pittsburgh hadn’t kicked the extra point; why the officials were still huddling, and why, on earth, all of a sudden, the final touchdown had come off the scoreboard. What! My ears perked up! The announcers said “we’re going to a commercial break, and when we come back, we’ll sort out this mess and find out the real final score.” I stayed downstairs, listening to the commercials, stressed and sweating.
Of course, after one commercial break came another one. And then, the local broadcast was gone, switched over to the Fox national broadcast. And the Fox broadcaster, listing the final scores, reported “Steelers 11, Chargers 10”. OMG – I was freaking out. I ran upstairs as fast as I could, looking to confirm the result on my Sportsoptions live odds screen.
My home phone was blowing up. My cell phone was blowing up. My instant messenger was blowing up! Everybody I knew seemed to be contacting me at the same time….and it was good news, not bad!
I’ve been on the wrong end of far too many bad beats in my betting career. This time, I really caught a break, as did my clients. Amen for that –frankly, we deserve a break like this every ten years or so.
The ‘official’ word on the final play was that there was a forward lateral when San Diego still had the ball with no time on the clock, ending the game right there. The call sounded odd to me at the time – still does, for that matter. In fact, it sounded odd to the officials as well. From the AP story on the game: “After the game, referee Scott Green said the officials realized afterward the touchdown should have counted, though it wouldn't have affected the result.”
Wouldn’t have affected the result?!? Clearly, these guys have never been to a Las Vegas sportsbook.
I’ve always preferred the terminology ‘sports investing’ to ‘gambling’ – sports investing describes what I do far better than ‘gambling’ does. But in this instance, it was most assuredly a lucky break from the gambling gods that cashed our hard fought ticket…. |
| Saturday, November 15, 2008
| Posted: 1:38 PM These free opinions have continued to cash in recent weeks, as part of an overall ‘running good’ month of November. I’m riding a 9-0 NBA streak into Saturday Night and have a 13-3 mark over the last 3 ½ weeks with my guaranteed NFL selections. I’ll do my best to keep the profit train rolling on Sunday! This game just missed out on making my ‘official’ NFL card, but I still think it’s worthy of a small wager.
Sunday, November 16th
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Recommendation: Take the Titans -2.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars looked great last week, beating up on Detroit 38-14. Prior to the game, the money poured in on the Lions – the betting marketplace was convinced that Jack Del Rio’s squad was beset with internal turmoil. Rather than falling apart in Detroit, however, the Jags pulled together, earning their first win of the year by more than a touchdown.
This week, the betting marketplace seems to think that all of the Jaguars problems are solved. The money has poured in on Jacksonville, as bettors are looking for the Jags to end the Titans perfect season. Clearly, these bettors have paid no attention to recent history. Let’s start with this key fact --- Jacksonville has no homefield edge whatsoever. The Jags are 0-fer the season against the spread at home, losing as a favorite in straight up fashion in three of their four home games.
Then, we must consider this fact -- Everybody looks great when they play the Lions. There’s a reason that Detroit is 0-9, looking at the NFL’s first winless season since 1976 square in the face. But we’ve seen a very dramatic pattern for teams AFTER they face the NFL’s weakest team. These teams have been overvalued in the betting marketplace after looking so good against Detroit, unable to step up in class against a ‘real’ opponent. The numbers don’t lie. The first eight teams to beat Detroit went 0-8 against the spread in their next ballgame. That, folks, is an under-the-radar angle that is surely worth riding once again here. =
Tennessee isn’t a ‘sexy’ undefeated team like the Patriots (16-0 in the regular season) were last year or the Colts in ’05 (13-0 start) and ’06 (9-0 start). There’s no Peyton Manning or Tom Brady on Tennessee. The Titans don’t score 40 points against anybody; they don’t have a household name on the roster; and they don’t even have any fantasy studs. The Titans aren’t sexy, but they are efficient – all they do is win, much like they did earlier in the Jeff Fisher era when the Titans were routinely earning a significant profit for their supporters on an annual basis. In a game where a SU win should equal a pointspread cover, I’m quite comfortable backing the team that is finding ways to win, as opposed to the squad that has lost four different games by less than a touchdown in the last eight weeks.
Take Tennessee. |
| Friday, November 14, 2008
| Posted: 4:18 PM So, I'm at the Red Rock casino on Tuesday Night. Kara plays poker fairly well these days, and I'm obliged to pay attention to her at least one night a week, our 'date' night. I talked her into playing poker for our 'date night' this week -- nice -- and I'm sitting in a great game, with a near perfect table image, starting to build a mountain of chips.
As I often do when I'm playing poker, I'll take a few breaks and watch some games in the sportsbook. I had a bet on the T-wolves +6, and midway through the fourth quarter, I made my way over to the book to sweat out the finale. At the time, Minnesota was leading comfortably, up by nine.
I proceeded to watch the T-wolves completely collapse, failing to score A SINGLE POINT in the last 4 1/2 minutes of regulation. The Warriors actually stepped it up defensively, and started to score some quick transition buckets. Even worse, Stephen Jackson got 'that look' in his eyes -- the look of a veteran leader who is not going to let his team lose. My only thought process during this entire span? "No overtime, no overtime, please no overtime."
Of course, the game went into overtime.
Minnesota was on the last game of a long road trip, winless for the trip. With an extremely young lineup on the floor -- Jefferson, Love, Gomes, Foye and Brewer, spelled by Craig Smith and Mike Miller -- the T-wolves could not and did not execute effectively down the stretch on either end of the court. It got worse in the overtime -- missed free throws, bad fouls, terrible shot selection, poor rebounding -- and all of a sudden, Minny was down five and Golden State had the ball with just over a minute to play.
I've been around long enough to know how these stories usually end. My six point dog that was winning SU for most of the second half was now about to lose by 8, 10, maybe 12 in overtime.
Not this time, however. Foye hit a free throw. Foye hit a stop-n-pop jumper in the lane. Most importantly, the Warriors didn't make another shot from the floor, and the T-wolves hung in there to lose by only three. Winner, winner chicken dinner.
So I went back to the poker room, ready to pick up where I left off -- action table, lots of chips bouncing back and forth. Guess what -- I'd been gone too long, and they picked up my chips, seating another player in MY seat about two minutes before I got back to the table. There were six or seven players ahead of me on the list, and I was in no mood to wait around -- heck, it was almost my bedtime.
So the T-wolves game worked out fine, and I made a nice profit from a short poker session, but frankly, I was looking for a score from that poker game and I didn't get it. And so it goes.
Kara and I started the drive home, taking the 215 from the Red Rock to my house. It was after 11:00 PM on a Tuesday night, yet the normally light 215 was filled with traffic. “What the heck is going on”, I wondered. And then I remembered. At 11:11 PM on November 11th, the brand new Aliante Station was opening up for business. Fireworks, celebrities, the works. Ah, what the heck, let’s check it out.
So Kara and I drove over to Aliante. We sat in traffic for a good half hour before finding our way into the property. It was a gorgeous new casino, and, of course, packed on opening night. We couldn’t even find a seat at a slot machine, let alone two seats at the same bank of machines. Every table game was full. The list for the poker room seemed endless, and I really didn’t have the energy or inclination to start another session.
Well, we had to play something – there’s only so much wandering around a new casino that you can do before getting bored. Plus, I wanted to use my player’s club card to get tracked, letting them know that I’d been there. I found a penny slot machine and jammed ten bucks into the hole. Thrilling, eh? Well, I thought I’d give them some action – ten bucks worth.
Lo and behold, I hit a stupid little jackpot. I was betting 40 cents a spin, and ended up winning $110 from that forty cent investment. I guess they really do loosen up the slots on opening night – that’s what the rumor has been in Vegas for the decade that I’ve been in town.
To be honest, I think this story sounded better in my head than it does on paper. Oh well, a boring story is better than no story at all, I suppose...... |
| Wednesday, November 12, 2008
| Posted: 1:04 PM 1) Florida: I’m not a politician, I’m a handicapper. In politics, flip-flopping is an indictable offense. In handicapping, it’s an absolute necessity to re-visit every team periodically throughout the campaign. Hence, the flip-flop at #1 this week – the Gators are playing better than any team in the country right now.
2) USC: Pete Carroll’s defense is amazing, allowing a grand total of 13 points in the Trojans last five games. The offense, however, is not at a #1 level, managing only 17 points in each of their last two competitive conference games against Arizona and Cal.
3) Texas Tech: OK, I’ll admit it – I bet against Texas Tech last Saturday. My clients and I were certainly not happy with the result, as the Red Raiders firmly earned my respect with the way they dismantled an Oklahoma State team that had beaten Missouri and taken Texas to the wire.
4) Alabama: Even in a down year for the SEC West, going undefeated through an SEC campaign is a remarkable accomplishment. To reach that goal, the Crimson Tide must snap a two game losing streak against Mississippi State and a six game losing streak against Auburn.
5) Texas: The Longhorns have already started to run up scores late in an effort to impress poll voters. Remember, if Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma all finish tied in the Big 12 South standings, the team with the highest BCS ranking will go to the Big 12 title game.
6) Oklahoma: I rip the Sooners’ defense in this column every week, so I’d better give credit where credit is due – this offense is unbelievable right now, hanging 58, 62 and 66 points in three straight wins and covers against a trio of weaker Big XII defenses.
7) Missouri: The Tigers had better not get caught looking past lowly Iowa State this weekend. The Cyclones have given the Tigers a world of trouble. Two of the last four meetings have gone into overtime. In a third, Iowa State pulled the outright upset as a double-digit dog.
8) Penn State: Joe Pa’s quote following Penn State’s crushing last second loss at Iowa last week: “Whaddaya gonna do?.” How about doing this, Mr. Paterno – get your team to execute effectively on the road with a two score lead in the fourth quarter.
9) Ohio State: In three Big 10 road games, the Buckeyes have outscored their foes 110-34, winning and covering the spread each time. In three Big 10 home games, Ohio State’s margin is only 56-37, and the Buckeyes are still looking for their first pointspread cover of the year in Columbus.
10) Utah: Give the Utes some credit. They were outplayed and outworked for three and a half quarters at home against TCU last Thursday Night, but played staunch red zone defense, got lucky with some TCU missed field goals, and found a way to pull out the victory in the final minute.
11) Georgia: The preseason #1 (do those voters bother to do ANY research at all before voting?) has fallen apart defensively, allowing at least 38 points in each of their last three ballgames. Good thing for Mark Richt that the offense produced more than 40 in two of those three contests.
12) Boise State: For those of you who think that Boise is a ‘Johnny Come Lately’ in the college football world, consider these facts: The Broncos are now 57-4 SU in conference play since joining the WAC in 2001, earning six straight conference titles in the process.
13) Oklahoma State: Well, every streak has to end sometime. The Cowboys were the last unbeaten team against the spread in the country, cashing eight straight tickets to open the season. That streak most assuredly did not survive their trip to Lubbock on Saturday Night.
14) TCU: Freshman kicker Ross Evans had nailed 13 of 15 field goal tries heading into the Utah game, but two misses from inside 40 yards cost the Horned Frogs their chance at a perfect Mountain West season and a potential BCS Bowl berth.
15) South Carolina: Last year, the Gamecocks fell apart down the stretch, losing five straight games to close out the season, missing out on a bowl bid for the first time in the Spurrier era. This year, the Gamecocks are getting better as the season has progressed, winning five of their last six.
16) Arizona: The Wildcats clinched bowl eligibility with their win at Washington State last week. They’ll need one more victory in their final three games to earn their first winning season since 1998 and to remove Mike Stoops from any list of ‘coaches on the hot seat’.
17) Florida State: Every time I watch the Seminoles, I think “If this team could just stay out of their own way, they’d be a juggernaut.” In the watered down ACC, Florida State has more talent than any other team, but turnovers, penalties and mental meltdowns continue to plague them.
18) LSU: The Tigers have now lost three games in the last five weeks, two of those losses coming at home. Les Miles’ squad gave Alabama their toughest test of the year to date, but Jarrett Lee’s fourth interception of the day cost them the chance at the upset.
19) Oregon: Based on "true rushing" numbers, the Ducks rank #3 in the country with 6.6 yards per rush attempt and #6 in the country, allowing only 3.7 yards per carry. But quarterback Jeremiah Masoli continues to struggle, still looking for his first 200 yard passing game of the season.
20) Oregon State: The Beavers control their own destiny in the PAC-10. While USC is still figuring out who needs to lose ahead of them for a chance at the national title, the Trojans won’t even earn a seventh consecutive PAC-10 championship if Oregon State can win their final three games.
21) Ball State: It’s long past time for me to include the Cardinals in my Top 25. The best team in the MAC hasn’t exactly faced a killer schedule. Navy and Indiana are their ‘signature’ wins this year, and they still must face heavyweights Central and Western Michigan to close out the season.
22) Pittsburgh: Dave Wannstedt’s squad snapped a three-year ATS losing streak as a home favorite in Big East play with their blowout win over Louisville last week. Even more impressive was the way they did it, winning by 34 despite LeSean McCoy’s worst rushing day of the season.
23) Michigan State: I guess I’ve got to bump the Spartans back up into my Top 25 this week. They are 9-2, after all, and have a half-game lead in the Big 10 standings. But they got blasted by Ohio State last month, and still have a trip to Happy Valley to take on Penn State on deck.
24) North Carolina: Butch Davis’s name has popped up in the rumor mill surrounding the upcoming coaching vacancy at Tennessee. Will that be a distraction for the Tar Heels this week as they travel to College Station to take on a Maryland squad that has been brilliant off a loss all year?
25) BYU: Teams like BYU are real bankroll boosters for savvy bettors. The Cougars got a ton of national hype for pitching back-2-back shutouts against UCLA and Wyoming back in September. Since that time, the Cougars are 0-6 against the spread, failing to live up to market expectations.
26) Cincinnati
27) California
28) Miami-FL
29) Mississippi
30) Iowa
31) Tulsa
32) Georgia Tech
33) West Virginia
34) Virginia Tech
35) Wake Forest
36) Boston College
37) Kansas
38) South Florida
39) Illinois
40) Wisconsin
41) Air Force
42) Nebraska
43) Maryland
44) Minnesota
45) Notre Dame
46) Clemson
47) Houston
48) Louisville
49) Virginia
50) East Carolina
51) Central Michigan
52) Connecticut
53) Rutgers
54) Arkansas
55) Arizona State
56) Nevada
57) Stanford
58) Kentucky
59) Northwestern
60) Auburn
61) Navy
62) Rice
63) North Carolina State
64) Western Michigan
65) Vanderbilt
66) Baylor
67) Buffalo
68) Bowling Green
69) Southern Miss
70) Louisiana-Lafayette
71) Mississippi State
72) Troy
73) Kansas State
74) Duke
75) New Mexico
76) Northern Illinois
77) Louisiana Tech
78) Michigan
79) Tennessee
80) Temple
81) Marshall
82) Memphis
83) Colorado
84) UCLA
85) Fresno State
86) Akron
87) Purdue
88) UTEP
89) Texas A&M
90) Hawaii
91) Florida Atlantic
92) San Jose State
93) Colorado State
94) Army
95) UNLV
96) Florida International
97) Miami-Ohio
98) Indiana
99) Utah State
100) Middle Tennessee State
101) Louisiana-Monroe
102) Arkansas State
103) Toledo
104) Central Florida
105) Syracuse
106) Kent
107) Tulane
108) Wyoming
109) UAB
110) Iowa State
111) Eastern Michigan
112) Ohio U
113) SMU
114) Washington
115) New Mexico State
116) San Diego State
117) Western Kentucky
118) Idaho
119) North Texas
120) Washington State |
| Tuesday, November 11, 2008
| Posted: 10:47 AM NBA Tuesday Night Opinion
My ‘free plays’ here in my blog have been cashing repeatedly in recent weeks. I thought I would try to keep the freight train rolling tonight, with this play that just missed out on ‘official’ status for my Tuesday Night card. Please be sure to shop around for the betting current pointspread – the Bulls are currently -3.5 in some spots; -4 in others.
Atlanta @ Chicago
Recommendation: Take Atlanta +4
Two weeks into the young season, there’s a lot to be said for the concept of strength of schedule. With most teams in the NBA having played five or six games, a quick look at the standings won’t tell us much. Atlanta is 5-0; Chicago is 3-4; no big deal, necessarily – until we start to look at the teams that Chicago has been losing to, and the teams that the Hawks have been beating.
The Bulls have three wins. They beat a last-place-contending Bucks squad; a worst-team-in-the-NBA contending Memphis Grizzlies and a Phoenix Suns team playing their third game in four nights on the road without Shaq. The Bulls have lost all four games that they’ve played against opposing teams with a winning record, including a home loss to the Cavs in their last outing.
Atlanta is perfect on the road, and they’ve been beating quality squads, including impressive upset wins at New Orleans and at Orlando. Even without defensive stopper Josh Smith in the lineup on Saturday, the Hawks came through with a brilliant defensive game, winning despite shooting only 37% from the floor.
Head coach Mike Woodson: “These guys tasted a little success last season when we got in the playoffs against the Celtics, and they know what that feeling is like. And they want to get back.” Expect them to continue their winning ways at the United Center this evening.
Take Atlanta |
| Monday, November 10, 2008
| Posted: 12:30 PM When I lived in Michigan, November was my least favorite month of the year. The switch between Daylight Savings Time and Standard Time was depressing, with the shorter days affecting my mood negatively. The weather went from those beautiful fall days, with the leaves in full color to those dark, dank, cold, early winter days.
Forget sweaters – the full winter clothing came out in November – heavy parkas, hats, gloves, long johns – the works. There are many people out there who suffer some type of an annual depression at this time of the year – seasonal affective disorder is what the medical professionals call it – and I was one of them.
These memories came pouring back to me this past weekend, as I saw the cold, nasty conditions around the football betting world back East on both Saturday and Sunday. It looked positively frigid in Chicago yesterday, with the early darkness blanketed by snow and wind. It was a similar story in Pittsburgh – the first snow flurries of the year. The same weather system was on full display on Saturday throughout the Midwest. From the comfort of my La-Z-Boy, I wanted no part of the declining weather back east.
Since I moved to Vegas in ’98, I have not suffered from seasonal affective disorder at all. Yes, it was chilly in Sin City this weekend, with lows even dipping down to the upper 30’s one night. But the sun was out in full force for most of the weekend, and once this system passes, we’re looking at temperatures in the upper 70’s for most of the week – warm and sunny.
With warm, sunny days ahead for at least the next few weeks (hopefully longer), those depressing November days are for Midwesterners and East Coasters, not for those of us living in the desert southwest. Even the time change is a positive thing – I like waking up to sunlight through my windows, not darkness, and the shorter afternoons are mitigated by the longer mornings.
As a handicapper, November is the single busiest month of the year, just edging out March for that award. NFL is in full swing. College football is in full swing. NBA is in full swing. College hoops starts tonight, the most time consuming and difficult sport to handicap of them all.
Even though my personal spotlight doesn’t start to shine on NCAA hoops for another few weeks, I’m still tracking lines, watching games, doing research and learning everything I can about as many teams as I can. In November, when you finish your work on one sport, you take a break for five minutes and start to work on the next sport. There is no rest, no easy days – this month is a lot of work.
I couldn’t imagine doing what I do in the cold, dreary, depressing wintery conditions back east. I couldn’t imagine doing it without a boatload of energy, something that I sorely lacked around this time of year in Michigan. I’m so thankful at this time of the year that I got off my butt and did what needed to be done to get my ass out to Vegas a decade ago. For those of you back east who are suffering through a nasty November, all I can say is, in the immortal words of Bill Clinton, ‘I feel your pain’…. |
| Saturday, November 8, 2008
| Posted: 12:26 PM I’ve been running pretty good with these opinions of late; thought I’d pass along another NFL Sunday Opinion this week for a game that just missed out on my ‘official’ guaranteed card.
Carolina -9.5 @ Oakland
Recommendation: Take Carolina
Here are the quotes DeAngelo Hall’s former teammates in Oakland, describing the situation this week now that Hall has been cut just eight games after signing a huge multi-year contract to play for the Raiders long term. Safety Gibril Wilson: “I’ve never been in a situation where you cut one of the best players. That’s strange to me. It’s almost like we’re throwing in the towel.”
Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha: “I’m obviously disappointed. I don’t agree with what happened. I don’t agree with what’s going on. But I am just a player so I can’t speak on it. I don’t make the decisions. All I can do is play but I don’t agree with what happened at all….. Like I said, I’m not allowed to speak on it because we’re just supposed to shut up and play. But you ask me if I agree with it? I don’t agree with it.”
The Raiders have played four games since firing head coach Lane Kiffin and replacing him with Tom Cable. They have been absolutely dominated in three of those contests, suffering non-competitive losses to the Saints, Ravens and Falcons. Last week, right here in Oakland against Atlanta, the Raiders were outgained in the first half 302 yards to -3. They went ‘three-and-out’ on seven of their first eight possessions, fumbling away the football on the eighth possession.
The Raiders are not a confident team. They are not a well coached team. And they are most assuredly not a team that has developed any sort of positive chemistry in recent weeks. They’ve lost three of their four home games by double digit margins, enjoying very little homefield edge. No, we’re not getting any bargains betting against Oakland these days – the betting marketplace certainly recognizes their numerous issues – but it’s certainly easier to bet against them in this deflated price range at home, considering their non-existent home field edge.
Carolina is better than all three of the teams that have destroyed Oakland over the last month. Carolina is rested and ready, coming off a bye. The Panthers have enjoyed tremendous success following their bye week under John Fox, winning by at least two touchdowns three times in four years prior to last season. But last year, Carolina went into their bye with a 4-2 record, then proceeded to lose five straight, killing their season | | | |
