Today is the day.  I’ve been reading everything I can find about the upcoming NFL season for the past few weeks; today I start my team by team previews.  Guest radio host Marty Otto and I got into a minor argument about the St Louis Rams on air earlier this week, so I’ll start my previews with Scott Linehan’s squad, coming off a dismal 3-13 season.

 

The Rams haven’t enjoyed a winning season since 2003, but last year was a clear step down for a franchise that has fallen on hard times.  2007 was an injury plagued disaster from start to finish, with a dozen players finishing the season on injured reserve.  The offensive line was particularly hard hit by the injury bug, with three starters basically missing the entire season.

 

Scott Linehan is most assuredly on the hot seat in his third season at the helm.  Linehan did what most coaches on the hot seat do in the offseason – he threw his assistants under the bus.  The Rams will have six new assistant coaches this year, including new offensive coordinator Al Saunders, who enjoyed success in previous stints at Kansas City and Washington.  Saunders has an extensive playbook – this is not an easy offense to learn, nor to execute, and we can expect some growing pains from the Rams early in the season.

 

Quarterback Marc Bulger signed a $65 million contract before the start of the ’07 campaign.  Battered and bruised operating behind that injury devastated offensive line, Bulger finished the season with a QB rating of 70.3.  To put that number in perspective, Tom Brady had a QB rating of 117.2.  Bulger ranked just behind Buffalo rookie QB Trent Edwards, and just ahead of Kansas City rookie QB Brodie Croyle.  For $65 million, the Rams certainly didn’t get a good return on their investment last year.

 

The Rams have had great skill position talent for the better part of the last decade.  That is no longer the case.  Running back Stephen Jackson is coming off an injury plagued season of his own, in which he scored only five rushing touchdowns.  Wide receiver Tory Holt, now 32 years old, has recurring knee problems that are likely to limit his effectiveness for the rest of his NFL career.  On the other side from Holt, the Rams have nothing but question marks.  The underachieving Drew Bennett and second round draft choice Donnie Avery out of Houston will be expected to fill in Issac Bruce’s big shoes, both on the field and in the locker room, something I wouldn’t count on them being able to do.

 

The biggest single issue for the Rams this year is their offensive line.  All the guys that were hurt last year are coming back, including pro bowl caliber left tackle Orlando Pace.  Certainly, from a depth perspective, this OL is head and shoulders ahead of where they were last year.  But with a new offense and no continuity whatsoever from last year to this year in terms of personnel, this offensive line has to be considered a major question mark.

 

The Rams finished 21^st in the NFL in total yardage allowed defensively last season and 31^st in points allowed.  The defense finished with a respectable 27 takeaways, but the team still finished -10 in turnover margin, ranked 28^th in the NFL in that key statistical category.  Coordinator Jim Haslett prides himself on an aggressive approach, but the Rams personnel is ill suited for his style.  And frankly, dating back to his tenure with New Orleans, Haslett hasn’t put together a top notch defense this decade, another coach barely hanging on to his job.

 

There’s a little to like about the 2008 Rams defense, most notably on the defensive line.  Last year’s #1 pick Adam Carriker and this year’s #1, Chris Long out of Virginia, make an excellent inside/outside duo on what had been a very porous unit.  But the Rams desperately need a rebound season from former pass rushing force Leonard Little, who notched only one sack last year.

 

The back seven defensively is mediocre at best.  Yes, linebacker Will Witherspoon had a breakout season in ’07, but that doesn’t guarantee similar results in ’08.  The secondary lacks a ballhawking cornerback or a playmaking safety.  To be generous, I’d give the Rams linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties a ‘C’ grade heading into the season if everyone stays healthy and performs to expectations.

 

I do like the pickup of kicker Josh Brown in free agency from divisional rival Seattle.  Free agent pickup Jacob Bell from Tennessee should provide depth for the offensive line and could end up as a starting guard.  That’s about it for impact free agent acquisitions; Long and Avery are the only two rookies likely to see extensive playing time.  In other words, this year’s roster looks a lot like last year’s roster, minus all the injuries.

 

St Louis has a positively brutal schedule to open up the season, terrible news for any head coach on the hot seat, trying desperately to keep his veterans playing hard.  The Rams play all four NFC East teams in the first half of the season (Giants, Cowboys, Eagles and Redskins, one of the toughest divisions in football), along with the Seahawks, Bills and Patriots.  They’ll be underdogs in six of their first seven games, so barring an upset, we’re looking at a 1-6 start, maybe 2-5.  That could be all it takes to send this team down the tubes once again, sealing Linehan’s fate and sending him back to a coordinator job.

Underdogs have ruled the roost in the Arena Football League playoffs in recent years, and the Wild Card weekend of the playoffs in 2008 confirmed the prevailing current trend. In 2006, the Chicago Rush were road underdogs in four straight playoff games on their way to winning the Arena Bowl. Last year, another regular season also-ran got hot in the playoffs, as 7-9 Columbus pulled off three consecutive road upsets before finally falling short in the Arena Bowl against San Jose. 

 

This past week, we saw road underdogs go 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU in the opening round of the playoffs. Will we see more of the same this week? The betting marketplace doesn’t seem to think so. All four home teams are favored by more than a touchdown following their bye week here in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, with the four road underdogs still searching for respect from bettors. Let’s break down the games one by one, focusing on the key pointspread and totals issues for each squad. Just like last weekend, all four games will be nationally televised on ESPN or ESPN2.

 

 

Colorado has some real momentum right now, winning and covering three straight, including two strong performances on the road. The Crush have a solid recent history of postseason success. John Elway’s squad won the Arena Bowl with John Dutton at QB and Mike Dailey as head coach as recently as 2005. Last year, the Crush went 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS on the road in the playoffs, winning outright at Kansas City and losing in spread covering fashion at the eventual champs San Jose. And despite a rash of injuries at wide receiver, the Crush defense appears to be good enough to give them a chance in this game as well.

 

San Jose dominated the lone regular season meeting between these two teams, winning 59-42 while averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt in sharp contrast to the Crush’s 5.9 yards per attempt.  And the Sabercats defense remains an elite level unit, returning every starter from last year’s Arena Bowl championship team. Few home fields in the AFL really matter, but San Jose enjoys a tremendous advantage at the HP Pavilion, 16-2 SU (12-6 ATS) over the past two seasons. Future Hall of Fame quarterback Mark Grieb led the league with 100 touchdown passes this season while ranking third in the AFL in completion percentage. 

 

 

 

New York has been a pointspread machine since March, covering the pointspread at a 9-3-1 clip in their last thirteen games. The Dragons scored touchdowns on eleven consecutive drives against an elite level defense in their upset win at Dallas last week, with quarterback Aaron Garcia showing no ill effects from the hard hit that he took against Philly in his regular season finale. Garcia has Hall of Fame credentials, but he’s never guided his team to the Arena Bowl. The Dragons enjoyed tremendous special teams play in their win over the Desperados as well. Kicker Steve Azar had a pair of onside kicks recovered by New York, while going a perfect 11-11 on extra point tries and booting three touchbacks.

 

On paper, Philadelphia looks like the team to beat in this year’s playoffs. The Soul cruised through the regular season with an AFL best 13-3 record, thanks to the play of the league’s top rated quarterback, Matt D’Orazio, who has filled in admirably for the injured Tony Graziani for most of the season. D’Orazio guided Chicago to an Arena Bowl title two years ago. It’s surely worth noting that the Soul’s three losses can all be easily explained away. Their loss to Cleveland came in a major flat spot on a short week following their biggest game of the year against Dallas. Their loss to Georgia was an aberration – the Soul led by three scores in the fourth quarter but collapsed in the final few minutes. And their loss to KC as a 17 point favorite was a matter of a disinterested team suffering through some mid-season injuries. The Soul are healthy now, and they beat New York 59-30 and 63-42 in their two regular season meetings.

 

 

 

Grand Rapids has the ‘feel’ of a team like Columbus from last year, who came out of nowhere to reach the Arena Bowl. The Rampage were not good for most of the regular season, losing eight out of nine during one particularly ugly mid-season stretch. But the Rampage played their best football when it counted the most, reeling off three consecutive wins to close out the regular season, then winning outright as a road underdog at Arizona last week in a rare stellar defensive effort (a huge goal line stand essentially winning the game) from a stop unit that allowed 59+ on eleven different occasions in the 16 game regular season. First year head coach Steve Thonn and first year starting quarterback James MacPherson seem to be clicking together right now as Grand Rapids has averaged more than 70 points per game during their current four game winning streak.

 

Chicago looked like the class of the American Conference for much of the season, but the Rush really tailed off late.  First year starter Russ Michna finished fourth in the league in quarterback efficiency, but the offense was sluggish down the stretch as the Rush were held to 52 points or less four times in their final five games. To make matters even worse for Chicago, they lost All-Arena linebacker DeJuan Alfonzo to a season ending injury prior to Week 16.  Chicago went 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) at home this year, but they didn’t have an easy time in their most recent home meeting with the Rampage, needing a huge fourth quarter rally to beat Grand Rapids by a single field goal.

 

 

 

The Gladiators didn’t look like a team that hadn’t made the playoffs since 2003 in their opening round win over Orlando, showing great poise following a rough start to pull out the three point victory. The Gladiators have not been the most consistent team in the AFL this year (to put it mildly) – they haven’t won back-2-back games since mid-May. This offense is loaded. Quarterback Raymond Philyaw finished the regular season as the #2 rated quarterback in the AFL. Wide receiver Otis Amey made the All-AFL squad with 50 touchdown receptions while Robert Redd led the team in receiving yards and fullback Marlon Jackson also earned All-AFL honors. But the Gladiators defense has been a problem area all season, and could be a problem again here.

 

Georgia has not been a ‘blowout’ team this year, with half of their ten wins coming by a touchdown or less.  In six of those ten wins, Georgia found themselves tied or trailing in the fourth quarter, a testament to the coaching acumen of Doug Plank (my choice for AFL Coach of the Year honors) and the fortitude of quarterback Chris Griesen, who ranked among the league’s elite signal callers for the second consecutive season.  Georgia went 14-2 during the regular season last year, then blew out Philadelphia in their first playoff game, but were knocked off at home by the upstart Destroyers in the National Conference Championship Game right here at Phillips Arena. A solid win here should wipe some of the bad taste from that defeat away, and put the Force in position to return to the Arena Bowl for the first time since 2005.

 

 

 

 

If playoff experience matters, the Cleveland Gladiators are in big trouble tonight.  Orlando has been the single most successful franchise in Arena Football history, earning their 17^th consecutive playoff appearance with a big win at home over New Orleans in their regular season finale.  Head coach Jay Gruden ranks fifth in AFL history for post-season wins by a head coach with eleven.  The Predators played in the Arena Bowl just two years ago, and have a pair of championship rings already this decade.

 

Cleveland, on the other hand, is in unfamiliar territory, just as they’ve been all season.  The Gladiators franchise hasn’t made the playoffs since 2003.  They relocated to Cleveland this past offseason after a truly dismal 2-14 campaign last year.  Very little remains of that horrific ballclub, with the exception of the team name, as the Gladiators have enjoyed a truly remarkable turnaround campaign, entering the playoffs with a 6-2 mark at Quicken Loans Arena.  Unlike his counterpart on the opposing sideline, Gladiators head coach Mike Wilpot has never coached a playoff victory.

 

The Gladiators pounded Orlando 62-43 in the lone regular season meeting between these two squads.  Quarterback Raymond Philyaw finished the regular season as the #2 rated quarterback in the AFL.  Wide receiver Otis Amey made the All-AFL squad with 50 touchdown receptions while Robert Redd led the team in receiving yards and fullback Marlon Jackson also earned All-AFL honors.  The Gladiators played well at home down the stretch, beating both Chicago and Columbus by double digit margins.

 

Meanwhile, the Predators stumbled and bumbled their way towards the finish line, losing three of their last four, all by a touchdown or more.  Orlando led the league in turnovers, with Shane Stafford avoiding getting benched only because of a lack of decent alternatives.  The Predators kicking game has been problematic; their defense has been suspect, and frankly, head coach Jay Gruden seems to have lost his ability to consistently coax quality performances from his mediocre personnel.   That being said, the road underdogs have been pointspread gold here in the postseason, 2-0 SU and ATS so far in 2008 after a very strong showing in the 2007 playoffs as well.

 

 

 

 

In these playoff previews, I’ve been writing about some remarkable in-season turnarounds from playoff bound squads.  Utah, New York and Georgia stand out among teams that put together excellent runs to close out the regular season.  Grand Rapids isn’t all that far behind.

 

The Rampage have been a bottom tier franchise in the AFL for years.  Grand Rapids won an Arena Bowl back in 2001, but the franchise declined precipitously afterwards.  This is their first playoff appearance since 2003 under first year head coach Steve Thonn and first year starting quarterback James MacPherson.  The Rampage suffered through some major growing pains for the first ¾ of the season, losing eight out of nine during one particularly ugly mid-season stretch.  But the Rampage played their best football when it counted the most, reeling off three consecutive wins to close out the regular season, earning the sixth and final playoff spot in the weaker of the two conferences despite their 6-10 overall record.

 

Arizona went to three consecutive Arena Bowls from 2002-2004, but the franchise fell on hard times when head coach/GM Danny White (the former Dallas Cowboys quarterback) moved over to Utah to coach the expansion Blaze three years ago.  To spur declining ticket sales, the new ownership group guaranteed a playoff berth in 2008 after a rough 4-12 season last year, and head coach Kevin Guy delivered on that promise.  The Rattlers were at their best as road underdogs, winning outright at Utah, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Orlando and Kansas City, but they went only 3-5 at home, dropping their last two games of the regular season to enter the playoffs on a losing note.

 

Once again, the major sites have dropped the ball when it comes to key personnel changes.  My sources indicate that Jeff Smoker will be the starting quarterback tonight, not Matt Sauk who has started the last four games for the Rattlers, but that has not been confirmed by any ‘official’ sources.  Smoker led Arizona to a four point win over Grand Rapids on this field back on May 24^th in the only regular season meeting between these two squads.  But Smoker’s inconsistency has been a major problem – he has struggled against several of the better defenses that he’s faced.

 

Grand Rapids QB James MacPherson, too, has been a model of inconsistency.  The Rampage offense put up 92, 84, 72, 84, 63 and 84 points in their six wins this season, but were held to less than 46 points per game in their nine losses with MacPherson behind center.  Defensively, Grand Rapids allowed 59 or more points on eleven different occasions this year, including in each of their last four games, far worse than the Rattlers defense statistically. 

The Arena Football playoffs begin this weekend, with four national TV games on ESPN and ESPN2.  We’ll see four more national TV games next weekend as the top two seeds in each conference come off their bye weeks with home games.  The two conference championship games are the following weekend, followed by Arena Bowl XXII in New Orleans following a two week ‘Super Bowl’ type layoff.  Each week between now and the Arena Bowl, I’ll be previewing the upcoming playoff matchups.

 

 

Dallas won 13 games in 2006, but were bounced out of the playoffs at home by Orlando following their bye week.  They went 15-1 last year, but suffered a devastating playoff loss at home to Columbus, also following their bye.  Dallas is coming off another exceptional regular season, but the Desperados know full well that regular season success does not directly translate to postseason excellence.  It’s surely worth noting that this year, Dallas didn’t win the division and won’t have a bye prior to the start of the playoffs.

 

Dallas played like a team that wasn’t particularly concerned with their regular season results down the stretch of the regular season.  The Desperados went just 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS in their final six games of the campaign.  To make matters worse, the Desperados have suffered through a rash of injuries in recent weeks, with electric kick returner Josh Bush the latest to go down, although star Ironman Will Pettis is expected to return to the lineup this week following a two game concussion induced absence.

 

Dallas has dominated this series in recent years, winning six straight meetings against the Dragons.  Both meetings this year were tight games, each decided by exactly two points, with New York covering the spread as an underdog in both contests.  Last year, Dallas won the two meetings 60-7 and 67-13, with their defense absolutely dominating the Dragons in both games.  The Dragons offense hasn’t exactly clicked against the Desperados defense this year either.  New York scored just 31 and 49 points in the two defeats, held to a very modest 11 touchdowns on 21 meaningful drives in those games.

 

New York suffered a major injury of their own in their season ending loss to Philadelphia last weekend when leading receiver Jason Willis dislocated his ankle.  Willis caught 135 passes and 30 touchdowns this year, leaving veteran quarterback Aaron Garcia without his top target against a defense that they’ve struggled against.  That being said, all the pressure is on the home team coming off two consecutive playoff collapses, and New York has been a pointspread machine since March, covering the pointspread at an 8-3-1 clip in their last dozen games.  It’s surely worth noting that the last four games have all flown Under the total, three of those Unders coming by more than five touchdowns!

 

 

 

Utah’s second half turnaround was one of the biggest stories of the season in the AFL.  The Blaze started out the campaign with an 0-9 mark finding new ways to lose each week – a defensive meltdown, an untimely turnover, a special teams miscue.  But head coach Danny White coaxed an amazing turnaround, as Utah went 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS in their final seven games to not only reach the playoffs but actually earn a first round home game in the weak American Conference.

 

The Blaze are led by the #2 quarterback in passing yardage and touchdowns this year, Joe Germaine (#3 in QB rating).  Receivers Huey Whittaker, JJ McKelvey and Aaron Boone became the first receiving trio to each catch 100 passes in the same season, all three ranking in the top eight in the AFL in receiving yards.  Even the Blaze defense, which was a disaster area back in March and April, has come on strong down the stretch.

 

Colorado, too, has some momentum heading into the playoffs after winning and covering their last two regular season games following a dismal stretch of seven defeats in an eight game span.  Unlike Danny White’s Blaze, who have been bounced out of the playoffs in the first round in each of the last two seasons, Colorado has a recent history of postseason success.  John Elway’s Crush won the Arena Bowl with John Dutton at QB and Mike Dailey as head coach as recently as 2005.  Last year, the Crush went 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS on the road in the playoffs, winning outright at Kansas City and losing in spread covering fashion at the eventual champs San Jose.

 

But the depleted Crush receiving corps took another hit last weekend.  Already missing star rookie wide receiver/kick returner Chad Owens with a torn ACL, speedy WR threat Brad Pyatt went on injured reserve with concussion problems.  Dutton, the former Arena Bowl MVP, ranked dead last among QB’s with at least 220 passing attempts in quarterback rating, and he tied for the league lead in interceptions thrown.  The Crush lost their only regular season meeting at Utah 71-36.

 

Check back on Monday as I preview the two Monday Night games.

 

With the AFL entering the final week of the regular season, very little has been determined when it comes to the playoffs.  Eight teams are in contention for the six postseason berths still available, three in each conference.  And each of the two conference titles is up for grabs, with homefield edge throughout the playoffs still to be determined this weekend.  Amazingly, all eight games on tap for the final weekend of the regular season hold some playoff implications – there isn’t a meaningless season finale on the board.

 

I’ll be going through the playoff scenarios for each of those eight games right here.  It is important to note the starting times for the eight games (six on Saturday, two on Sunday), because the outcome of early games could have a dramatic effect on the intensity (or lack thereof) in later games.  Most Arena Football games take between two and a half and three hours to complete

 

Saturday, 7:00 pm ET

Columbus is out of the playoffs, after reaching the Arena Bowl last year.  Cleveland’s playoff scenario is very simple – a win and they’re in, a loss and they’ll probably be out.  The Gladiators will get a home game in the first round of the playoffs next weekend with the following scenario: Cleveland Gladiators win + New York Dragons loss + New Orleans VooDoo loss.

 

Saturday, 7:00 pm ET

This is the only game where both teams are fighting for a playoff spot.  Grand Rapids can get in with a win, or an LA loss at Tampa Bay.  They’ll earn a home game in the first round of the playoffs next weekend with the following scenario: Grand Rapids Rampage win + Utah Blaze loss + Colorado Crush loss.  New Orleans is in with a win, or they can still get in with a Cleveland loss if they lose the game themselves.  The VooDoo get a home playoff game next weekend if they win and either New York or Cleveland wins as well.

Saturday, 7:30 pm ET

Tampa Bay had the best record within the ultra-competitive Southern Division, but they have no chance to reach the postseason after last week’s loss at San Jose.  LA stayed alive in the playoff race with a win over Kansas City last week.  The Avengers need a win here AND a loss from one of these three teams: Grand Rapids, Colorado or Utah in order to earn a playoff berth.  They’ll get a first round home game if they win and both Colorado and Grand Rapids lose.

 

Saturday, 8:00 pm ET

Kansas City is out.  Colorado gets in to the playoffs with a win or a loss by either Grand Rapids or LA.  If the Crush win and Utah loses, Colorado will host a first round playoff game next weekend.

 

Saturday, 10:00 pm ET

Only two of the six teams that have already clinched playoff spots know their status heading into this weekend.  Arizona is one of those two teams, having clinched the #3 seed in the American Conference.  They’ll get a home playoff game next weekend, then hit the highway should they survive and advance to the following week.  This game against Utah is absolutely meaningless for the Rattlers.  Utah, on the other hand, is in need of a win here to clinch their spot.  The Blaze can also earn a playoff spot even in defeat if either Colorado or Grand Rapids goes down to defeat as well. 

 

Saturday, 10:30 pm ET

Georgia joins Arizona as the only two teams that know their playoff status completely heading into Week 17.  The Force won the Southern Division last week earning them a first round bye and a second round home game.  They’ll be the #2 seed in the National Conference, unable to catch Philly or Dallas for the #1 seed.  This game is completely meaningless for the Force.  San Jose has already clinched the Western Division title and a first round playoff bye.  But the Sabercats are locked in a tight battle with Chicago for the #1 seed in the American Conference, needing a win and a Rush loss to clinch that spot.

 

Sunday, 3:00 pm ET

Philly can clinch the Eastern Division title and home field advantage throughout the National Conference playoffs with a win here or a Dallas loss.  If the Soul lose and Dallas wins, Philly will be relegated to the #3 seed in the National Conference, losing out on their bye week and forced into action with a home game next weekend to open up the playoffs.  New York needs a win just as much, if not more.  If the Dragons can win, they’re in – it’s just that simple.  If they don’t win here, New York can still back into the playoffs with a loss from either Cleveland or New Orleans.  They’ll earn a first round home game with a win and a New Orleans loss; otherwise, they’ll be hitting the highway for the opening round.

 

Sunday, 4:00 pm ET

Chicago will know their situation by kickoff.  If San Jose wins on Saturday night, Chicago will need a win to clinch the #1 seed in the American Conference.  With a San Jose loss on Saturday night, Chicago clinches that #1 seed, and this game becomes a meaningless season finale prior to their bye week.  Dallas will be either the #1 seed or the #3 seed in the National Conference.  The Desperados can earn that #1 seed if they win here and Philly loses to New York.  If the Soul beat the Dragons, this game is meaningless for Dallas, but they won’t know the outcome of that game before they take the field.

 

The Predators have a bye for Week 17.  They currently sit with the #4 seed in the National Conference, but could be out of the playoffs entirely depending on the action this weekend.  Orlando needs at least one of the other three teams in contention to lose: Cleveland, New York or New Orleans.  If all three win, the Predators are out.

Favorite bettors in the AFL suffered an absolute disaster this past weekend.  While the favorites were 7-1 straight up, with only the underdog Colorado Crush winning outright, the underdogs were a perfect 8-0 against the spread.  All eight games were decided in the final minute, with five of the eight outcomes not determined until the final ten seconds of the game. Five games were determined after a failed on-side kick, two by a failed fourth down pass and one by a last second missed field goal.  If you were looking for excitement and competitive games, the AFL certainly suited your needs this past weekend.

 

It’s extremely rare to see favorites win seven of eight games in straight up fashion, but lose all eight against the spread.  All seven games where the favorite won but didn’t cover were decided by three points or less.  In a league where the winning team covers the spread at an 80%+ clip, the results this past weekend were a significant change from the long term history of the league. 

 

As the regular season ends this weekend, there are eight teams battling for six playoff spots – three seeds available for the taking in each conference. In the American Conference four teams with 5-10 records (the Utah Blaze, LA Avengers, Grand Rapids Rampage and Colorado Crush) will battle for the three playoff spots, with one of the four teams earning a home playoff game. In league history, there has never been a team with losing records that has hosted a playoff game. One of the four teams listed above will host a playoff game next week with (at best) a 6-10 record.  Since 1995, there had been just five teams with losing records to reach the post-season but there will be three that earn that dubious achievement in 2008.

 

One of the biggest in-season turnarounds this year came from the Georgia Force.  Georgia wrapped up a third division title in four years this past weekend with a nailbiting win over Chicago.  Remember, Georgia went 14-2 last year, clinching their division title midseason.  This year, however, after losing two thirds of their superstar receiving trio when Derek Lee when to Columbus and Chris Jackson went to Philadelphia in the offseason, the Force stumbled out the gate, losing five of their first eight.

 

Georgia head coach Doug Plank: “I’ve never had so many people question my ability to coach before. It was a difficult time for us, but we just had to keep doing what we felt was right to put our team in a position to win.”  Plank’s patience paid off, as Georgia reeled off seven straight wins to win the division, winning outright as underdogs on four separate occasions during that span.  This week’s game at San Jose is meaningless for the Force, but Plank is reportedly not going to be resting starters with a bye week on tap. “Everyone will play, I won't sacrifice this momentum.”

 

The Chicago Rush have tanked down the stretch, losing three of their last four, including the loss at Georgia this past weekend.  Their lone win during this span came in a near-upset by lowly Kansas City as the Rush needed to rally from a double digit fourth quarter deficit as two touchdown favorites.  To make matters even worse for Chicago, they’ve suffered some key injuries on the defensive side of the football.  All-Arena linebacker DeJuan Alfonzo ruptured his right biceps tendon, placed on injured reserve prior to last week’s game.  His backup, Ryan Dennard started against Georgia but left the game with an injury after the first series forcing LB Liam Ezekiel into extensive action.

 

Alfonzo’s injury is a devastating one.  Head coach Mike Hohensee: “It’s a tremendous loss for the team. And I know nobody is more upset right now than ‘Zo. He is a great competitor and no one in the league plays the Jack linebacker position the way he does. However, we believe we have enough talent and depth to overcome his loss and make a run at another championship.”

 

The playoff scenario going into the final two weeks of the 2008 regular season for the Colorado Crush was simple: win twice and you’re in.  Colorado had suffered a devastating injury blow of their own, when star rookie wide receiver/kick returner Chad Owens torn his ACL, joining another speedy WR threat Brad Pyatt on injured reserve.  On Monday night the Crush took care of part one of their playoff scenario, blowing most of a four touchdown lead at Arizona but hanging on for the win.

 

With co-owner John Elway making headlines this past week by discussing the possibility of folding the franchise and/or completely tearing apart the team in the offseason, the Crush needed a strong performance and they got one.  Head coach Mike Dailey: “We have had trouble getting bounces to go our way this season, but tonight we got a couple balls on turnovers that we were able to convert into points.”  Defensive back Rashad Floyd, talking about their mindset against Kansas City this week: “We were in a do or die position and we were able to get the job done (last week).”

 

I don’t know why head coaches lie to the media and their own players, but it cost us a bet last week.  Columbus Destroyers head coach Doug Kay told his team and the local beat writer that he would be giving backup quarterback Justin Zwick “extensive” playing time.  With the Destroyers trailing by two scores and the crowd chanting for the former Ohio State hero (“We Want Zwick”), Kay gave Zwick exactly one play under center for the entire game. Zwick: “I thought I was going to play a lot more.” 

 

Kay made no apologies for his outright lie: “We felt that Matt (Nagy) had to control the football game based on the way the situation was going.  Justin Zwick wasn't put in the game to control the game. He was put in the game so we could get some idea (of him in game conditions) and so that he could get some idea.”  I guess one play from scrimmage was enough for the 3-12 Destroyers to evaluate Zwick’s capabilities.  We’ll have to see whether he gets more playing time this week in the Destroyers season finale at Cleveland.

 

I’ll be back with a second AFL blog entry before the weekend, outlining each team’s respective playoff scenarios for Week 17.

 

We haven’t seen an NBA Finals with either team leading 3-1 since 2004, when Detroit beat the Lakers in five games.  In 2005, the Spurs and Pistons were tied at 2-2 before San Antonio stole Game 5 in overtime in Detroit on their way to the championship.  In ’06, the Heat and Mavs were tied at two games apiece as well, before Miami won the next two games to emerge victorious.  Last year, of course, San Antonio swept Cleveland in four games. 

 

Teams that face elimination have not done well in recent years.  The Cavs went down at home last year, unable to win trailing 3-0, but they did cover the pointspread in the series finale thanks to a Boobie Gibson three pointer at the buzzer.  Dallas went down at home in ’06, unable to change the momentum of the series after dropping three straight, losing Game 6 SU and ATS as a favorite. 

 

The ’05 Pistons were able to win Game 6 on the road at San Antonio when facing a 3-2 deficit, but they are the exception to the recent rule.  In ’03, with the series tied 2-2, the Spurs won and covered the final two games against New Jersey.  In ’02, the Nets were swept by the Lakers, losing Game 4 at home when facing elimination, with LA winning and covering Game 4 in New Jersey.

 

The last time a road team led 3-1 in the NBA Finals was in 2001, when the Lakers beat the 76ers in five games.   In that series, the 76ers stole Game 1 in LA, then lost four straight to the Lakers, with LA winning and covering all three games in Philadelphia, winning by 12 in the series finale. 

 

But the Lakers came up very short against Indiana with a 3-1 lead back in 2000, their first championship in more than a decade.  LA won a tough Game 4 in overtime to notch the 3-1 lead, but were blown off the court in Game 5 at Indiana, losing by 33.  They bounced back to win the title in Game 6 at home, but failed to cover the pointspread as 7.5 point favorites. 

 

The 1999 Spurs also held a 3-1 series lead facing Game 5 on the road.  They were underdogs at New York in that ballgame, but won by a single point, 78-77 to earn their first of four titles in the next nine years.

 

The 1998 Utah Jazz faced elimination on the road at Chicago, trailing 3-1 after losing three straight since their Game 1 victory.  The Jazz won Game 5 as 5.5 point road underdogs at Chicago, sending the series back to Salt Lake City, setting the stage for Michael Jordan’s single most famous shot to earn the Bulls their sixth title.

 

I know, I know – history lessons only go so far, and this particular history lesson doesn’t give us any consistent indicator of how teams perform facing 3-1 deficits at home, or how they fare facing elimination.  That being said, we do know that teams coming off a crushing loss, like the loss the Lakers suffered on Thursday Night, tend to have a hard time bouncing back when facing a foe intent on winning a title that day.  However, as the 2000 Lakers clearly show, sometimes those road teams run out of gas in a major way, knowing that they’ll have two more opportunities to clinch on their own homecourt.

 

The postgame comments don’t tell us that kind of a story.  According to the LA Times, on Friday, the Lakers had a brief team meeting with “the aftermath of Thursday night's loss to the Boston Celtics still lingering well into this afternoon.”  Phil Jackson: “We need rest and recuperation in this situation, probably more psychologically than we do physically.”

 

Contrast that with Paul Pierce’s focused comments: “We want to take care of business on Father's Day.”  Given Kevin Garnett’s intensity, Ray Allen’s consistency, the tremendous production from role players like James Posey and Eddie House and the way Doc Rivers has outcoached Phil Jackson in this series, the signs here certainly point towards Boston in Game 5. 

 

That being said, if Kobe tries to prove a point and goes off for 40+, as he’s quite capable of doing, all bets on Boston are probably in trouble.  Which Kobe will we see here?  The guy who was absolutely stymied by the Celtics defense in Game 4, held to 17 points on 6-19 shooting or the guy who poured in 66 points in Games 2 and 3 combined, hitting better than 50% from the floor in the process?

 

The Lakers are 0-4 ATS here in the 2008 Finals, and 0-6 ATS against Boston this season.  In fact, dating back to their last appearance in the Finals against Detroit in ‘04, LA is 0-8-1 ATS on the national stage, not exactly the type of track record that inspires confidence among bettors.  Three of the four games here in the Finals have gone Under the total, with Boston’s defensive intensity being the single most consistent storyline of the Finals thusfar.

 

On the injury front, Boston’s intimidating starting center, Kendrick Perkins, is listed as ‘questionable’ for Sunday with a bum shoulder.  But Perkins absence probably won’t affect the Celtics chances much – he’s been a non-factor throughout this series, contributing only 18 points, 14 boards and 4 blocks through the first four games.  Boston’s frontcourt depth, with Leon Powe and PJ Brown coming off the bench (as well as Big Baby Davis, should they need him) makes Perkins injury a non-issue pointspread wise.

 

Paul Pierce has shown no lingering effects from his Game 1 knee injury, on track to be the MVP of the series.  Point guard Rajon Rondo was definitely limited with his bad ankle in Game 4, held to a series low 17 minutes, five points and two assists, but again, the Celtics depth made the injury a non-factor, with Eddie House and Sam Cassell both stepping up. 

 

LA has no significant health issues to report heading into the weekend.

Seven teams can clinch playoff berths this weekend, but only two control their own destinies: Georgia and New Orleans both clinch a spot with a single victory this weekend.  Chicago can clinch homefield edge throughout the American Conference playoffs with a single victory as well.  Cleveland, Colorado, Grand Rapids, New York and Utah all have the potential to clinch spots in Week 16, but each of those teams needs some help.

 

The fact that Utah is in position to clinch this week is nothing short of amazing, a true testament to the weakness of the American Conference this season.  Remember, the Blaze started the year by losing their first nine games, but they’ve won five of their last six both SU and ATS, despite losing the pointspread cover this last Monday Night on the final play of the game against the LA Avengers, winning by only nine as 9.5/10 point favorites.

 

Blaze Quarterback Joe Germaine leads the league with 91 touchdown passes, while receivers Huey Whittaker, Aaron Boone and JJ McKelvey all rank in the top ten in both total receptions and receiving yards.  The Blaze are the only team in the AFL to have three receivers with more than 110 catches and more than 1300 receiving yards.  Head coach Danny White, following the win over LA:  “This win is a tribute to the resiliency of this team in the second half of the season.  This game is a perfect example of a bunch of guys taking ownership of this team who refused to give up.”

 

Grand Rapids is another team that is in position to clinch a playoff spot this week, despite a horrific run of eight losses in a nine game span and a 4-10 record overall.  The Rampage won an Arena Bowl title back in 2001, but the franchise has declined markedly in recent years, failing to reach the postseason since the 2003 campaign.

 

The Rampage put on a truly impressive offensive showing against Colorado this past weekend, hanging 84 points on the Crush.  First year head coach Steve Thonn promised a more aggressive approach following their home loss to Utah the previous week, and he certainly wasn’t bluffing.  The Rampage had a season high 16 possessions against Colorado, averaging less than two minutes per possession.  For the game, the two teams combined to score twenty touchdowns, while averaging less than three plays per touchdown drive; the longest drive for either team in the entire game taking slightly over four minutes.  That’s the single fastest pace (most aggressive) game of the entire season.

 

Rampage quarterback James MacPherson has an extraordinarily sharp dichotomy between his winning performances and his losing ones.  In his four wins as the starter, MacPherson has thrown 30 touchdowns with only four interceptions, completing better than 80% of his pass attempts.  In his eight losses as a starter, his completion percentage is a more modest 62.6 and his TD/INT ratio is also more modest: 41/11.  Three different Grand Rapids receivers had 100 or more yards and at least three touchdown receptions this past weekend, the first time in team history they’ve accomplished that feat.

I wrote about Orlando’s turnover problems last week, a team that started the season 6-2 but currently is on the outside, looking in, at the playoff race after another ugly loss at Tampa Bay this season.  Quarterback Shane Stafford threw for a season high 362 yards (the most Tampa Bay has allowed all year), but he fumbled a snap for the fifth straight game, and committed a turnover for the 13^th time in 15 games.  Only Colorado QB John Dutton has committed turnovers in 13 different games this season.  No one in the AFL has more total turnovers, total fumbles, or fumbles lost.  Stafford is approaching Kurt Warner’s (yes, THAT Kurt Warner) all time season record of 18 fumbles set back in 1995 with the Iowa Barnstormers.

 

Orlando has reached the playoffs in each and every season during their 16 year existence.  Head coach Jay Gruden: “We’re not out of it yet.  But the way we’re walking around out there right now…”.  The Predators have a bye in Week 17, giving them one chance, at home in the Jungle this Friday Night, to take care of business against New Orleans.  The VooDoo, by the way, are 0-7 in their history in the state of Florida, suffering a late season meltdown of their own after losing four of their last five following a 7-2 start.

 

The Chicago Rush are another team playing poorly down the stretch.  Needing only a single win to clinch homefield advantage throughout the American Conference playoffs, the Rush got hammered at Cleveland this past weekend, losing by three touchdowns.  Their normally strong defense coming out with their worst effort of the season, allowing 65 points on a whopping 10.7 yards per pass attempt.  Their only win in the last three weeks was a come-from-behind victory in the final seconds against arguably the league’s worst team, Kansas City.  To make matters even worse for Chicago, their final two games come against Georgia (the hottest team in the league, winners of six straight) and Dallas (also needing to win out to secure home playoff games).

Speaking of Kansas City, I made a mistake a few weeks ago, writing that head coach Kevin Porter was on the hot seat following their decline from 10-6 last year to 3-11 in 2008.  Porter, the former Chief, signed a five year deal in part due to his friendship with former Kansas City Chiefs teammate Neil Smith, one of the co-owners of the team.  The ownership group can certainly be blamed for the Brigade’s quarterback woes after letting Raymond Philyaw go to Cleveland in free agency in the offseason. 

 

The Brigade became the first AFL team this year to start four different quarterbacks, as former Dallas Cowboy Quincy Carter made his first career start at home against Arizona this past Sunday.  Proving once again that the AFL and NFL have completely different skill sets for quarterbacks, Carter’s performance was a disaster as KC lost by 39 points in a game that they were actually favored to win!  Much as benched quarterbacks John Fitzgerald, Matt Kohn and D. Bryant failed before him, Carter struggled from start to finish throwing a whopping 20 incomplete passes and two interceptions while leading the Brigade to a season low 34 points. 

 

Let’s return to the Brigade’s decision not to re-sign Philyaw to conclude this week’s news and notes.  In 2006, KC went 3-13.  They signed Philyaw in the offseason and improved to 10- 6 last year.  In 2007, the Las Vegas Gladiators went 2-14.  They moved to Cleveland, signed Philyaw, and are sitting at 8-6 in 2008.  Philyaw hasn’t thrown an interception in his last five games (173 pass attempts) and threw only five incomplete passes in an upset win over the league’s best defensive team (Chicago) this past Saturday.

 

But the Gladiators defense has been a major part of their turnaround as well.  First year head coach Mike Wilpolt was the defensive coordinator in LA from ’05-’07, and he was brought into Cleveland in an effort to transform their horrific defense from last year.  The defense played their best game of the season in the upset win over Chicago.  Wilpolt: “The (defensive backs) played better, we got a ton of pressure on the quarterback, and we got them in situations they weren’t comfortable in. This was one of our top two or three performances as a defense.”

 

However, the Gladiators still need a strong finish to clinch a playoff spot. Wilpolt: “I don’t like to put pressure like that on players but they read the paper and they look at the standings. (They know) that we need to win these two more games.”  Cleveland faces a tough test this weekend, traveling to Philadelphia to take on the revenge minded Soul. Remember, the Gladiators handed Philly their first loss of the season after the Soul’s 9-0 start, and Philadelphia needs to win out to clinch homefield edge in the ultra-competitive National Conference.

As a professional handicapper, there’s nothing worse than a Game of the Year loser.  Games of the Year don’t come around very often, and when a play develops that is worthy of that designation, I expect it to win.  Every time.  With ease.  That didn’t happen on Saturday, as Dallas lost outright to Philadelphia.

 

This Game of the Year loser was particularly ugly, because my handicap of the game was dead right.  In fact, looking back on this game, the loss was unbelievably improbable.  In today’s blog entry, I’ll do a post mortem report on the game, going back through my analysis and thought processes and comparing them to what actually happened.

 

Here are the facts.  I released Dallas as a 1.5 point favorite; the line was-3.5/ -4 by kickoff after my clients and I bet big money all over Vegas and offshore on the Desperados.  Dallas scored a touchdown on every single possession, with the lone exception of the one possession before halftime where the Desperados had only 13 seconds to work with.  On that possession, Dallas executed well and got a field goal. 

 

Let me repeat that one more time – every time Dallas had the ball on offense, they scored: seven ‘meaningful’ drives, seven touchdowns, plus the field goal right before the half.  In addition, Dallas intercepted a pass and returned it for a touchdown AND they also had a kickoff return touchdown.

 

An excerpt from my write-up supporting the Desperados:

 

Dallas scored 64 points on Saturday: the nine touchdowns described above and a field goal.  They missed two extra points (we’ll discuss that in a moment) leaving them with 64.  Philly’s defense had allowed more than 57 points on only two previous occasions all year, both SU and ATS losses.

 

Another excerpt from the write-up:

 

The Soul activated a handful of key players from injured reserve this week, most notably defensive back Mike Brown and quarterback Tony Graziani….Graziani appears poised to get the start.  Considering that Graziani’s backup, Matt D’Orazio, is the #1 rated quarterback in the league, while Graziani hasn’t been able to start and finish a game since Week 3, I’ll call the return of the veteran a drop-off, not a bonus.

 

Graziani was not sharp.  He threw the interception that was returned for the touchdown in the first quarter.  But the Dallas pass rush hammered his fragile body so hard that he was knocked out of the game before halftime.  Backup D’Orazio was nothing short of outstanding.  I suppose my handicap of the game could have predicted that Graziani would get hurt again, and D’Orazio would come off the bench and lead the team to victory, but it didn’t.

 

So, I nailed the part about the Desperados offense being in their best form of the season.  I nailed the part about the return of Graziani being a downgrade, not an upgrade.  How on earth did this play lose?

 

Special teams, that’s how. Bleepity bleep special teams.  First, kicker Remy Hamilton started missing extra points.  First one, then two, which eventually led to a two point conversion situation for Philadelphia, which they, of course, converted.  Coming into the game, Dallas kicker Remy Hamilton had 13 missed extra points in 13 games, while Philly kicker Connor Hughes had 12.  Hughes made all of his here, Hamilton did not, and that ended up costing us a field goal.  But it didn’t cost us the game.

 

In the AFL, it’s not uncommon to use onside kicks in an effort to control the clock before halftime.  Getting the final touchdown before the half is key; clock management is what separates the better coaches from the weaker ones in many regards.  Dallas attempted an onside kick before the half, but they didn’t recover it and Philly scored a TD.  Then the Soul attempted an onside kick right back, but they got the recovery, and were able to drain the clock down to 13 seconds before punching in the touchdown with D’Orazio managing the game brilliantly.

 

One onside kick recovery leading to an extra Philly possession, two missed Dallas extra points.  Not good, but certainly no crisis – Dallas got the ball first to start the second half, trailing by six.  As they did on every drive, they scored a touchdown to open up the half.  All we needed was one stop and we’d be in fantastic position to win the game by a touchdown, and everyone would cash.

 

That stop never came.  The Desperados defense, which hadn’t allowed more than 57 points all year, the second ranked defense in the AFL, allowed D’Orazio to complete pass after pass, drive after drive.  Philly went five of six on third down conversions and 1-1 on fourth down.  Dallas was whistled for flag after flag – illegal defense, roughing the passer, pass interference – 12 of them in all – giving the Soul a new set of downs again and again.

 

Yet despite all of this – the loss of a key possession thanks to the onside recovery, the lack of stops on defense, the missed extra points – Dallas still had the lead at the 59 minute mark, with one minute left to play.  Then all hell broke loose.  On third and long, D’Orazio threw an impossible strike into the end zone for a Soul touchdown.  It really was an unbelievable throw and catch, worthy of highlight reels, except it went against us. 

 

On the ensuing kickoff, it looked like Josh Bush was going to take it to the house for the second time, but he inexplicably slowed down and was stripped of the football.  Fumble!  Recovered by Philly!  We’re screwed.  One first down for the Soul and it’s Game Over.  They got the first down.  On third and long.  Missed tackle.  Brutal. 

 

One onside kick recovery, costing us an extraordinarily valuable possession in a game where both defenses were overmatched.  One fumble on a kickoff return, costing us our chance to win late.  Two missed extra points and a made two point conversion the other way.  The QB who I was betting against getting knocked out of the game early.  Despite their defensive deficiencies, Dallas should have won this game by ten points.  Instead, they lost by seven, and I’m stuck here explaining what the hell happened on a Monday morning.  And so it goes.

 

Even with the disappointing loss, I’m still hitting at a 60% clip in the AFL this season.  I’m still the #1 AFL handicapper in the world over the last four years.  We bounced back nicely on Sunday with a play on Arizona, as an underdog, winning 73-34 on the road at Kansas City, a nice six touchdown pointspread cover.  I certainly haven’t lost my confidence in the ‘beatablility’ of this league and I’m certain that I’m going to continue to beat it consistently in the final two weeks of the regular season and in the playoffs as well.  I hope you’ll join me, both those who were burned by the GOY loser on Saturday, and those who weren’t…..

Here’s the quote from longtime Caesar’s Palace Race and Sports Book Director Chuck Esposito: “I’m guessing (this year’s NBA Finals) will generate the most action since some of the Jordan/Bulls finals.  I would easily put the Lakers and Celtics as one and two or one and three (most popular NBA bets), the only other teams that draw that much interest in the NBA would also be the Bulls and Knicks. The action in the finals should be unreal.”

 

There is almost always an advantage for sharp bettors in situations where public money must be accounted for in the linesmaking process.  Remember, with the lone exception of the NFL, lines are set in every other sport to beat the professional bettors, not the public.  In a series like this, with an influx of public money, the betting marketplace can get skewed. 

 

In particular, I expect the sports betting mark