Serious punting game problems – they can’t handle the pressure, and the punter has lost his mojo.  Blocked punts, short punts, shanked punts – this is ugly for junior Adam Miller.  The offense wasn’t very good with starting QB Donovan Porterie in the game, but it got far worse once he got hurt.  Redshirt frosh QB Brad Gruner absolutely stunk up the joint -- another team that hasn’t had good QB play in years.

 

This hurry up offense is as fast paced as it gets in college football; it’ll really wear down defenses that don’t have the depth substitute liberally throughout the ballgame.  Three new starters on the offensive line, including a redshirt frosh at center – this unit is a long way from gelling together right now.  New conditioning program for NW this past offseason to prepare them for the rigors of the fast paced offense – pay attention to this for second half betting!!  It really showed in the fourth quarter when they were clearly the stronger of these two teams.

 

Kick return coverage is already a problem.  First two kickoffs resulted in long returns by Wyoming.  And this secondary does not impress at all – slow, unable to cover speedy receivers both in man and in zone coverages.  You can’t allow 3^rd and 18 conversions with wide open receivers downfield.  When did Frank Solich become Mr Aggressive?  Went for it on fourth down four times; converted on three of them, but eschwed the field goal by going for it and failing just before halftime – three points that would have won the game.  QB Theo Scott isn’t taking any shots downfield, only one pass play longer than 15 yards all game.  Good linebackers here – the team speed is better than I thought sideline to sideline.

 

Bizarre play calling in the red zone turned a second and goal at the one into a field goal attempt on their first drive.  More poor execution in the red zone turned another first and goal into a field goal attempt right before halftime.  Early penalties are killing this team, finished 7^th in the country in most penalties last year.  And they look very young and out of sync, the crowd seems to be taking them out of their game completely.  This offense looks very shaky, lots of indecisiveness in both the running game (Kendall Hunter dancing to the line of scrimmage instead of blowing through the hole) and passing game (Robinson seems to be very nervous about upsetting the coaching staff and getting pulled).   With all the skill position talent here, it’s amazing how much of a struggle the Cowboys had moving the football, particularly the non-existent running game.  They use the jump-ball very effectively in the passing game, with their big receivers able to box out the opposing defenders.

 

RB LeSean McCoy is the real deal, a difference maker.  But that’s about it --- this team just doesn’t impress me any more than they have for the last three years under Wannstedt.  Defense ranked in the Top 10 in the country last year, but BG was just picking them apart with a patient dink-n-dunk game.  This team appears less than the sum of their parts, even with QB Bill Stull looking okay.  When the Panthers were locked in a ‘life and death’ struggle against a MAC foe in the second half, we did not see any intensity level increase from Pitt, no deep down resolve to win.  This offensive line did not dominate in the slightest.  And when they were forced to pass on nearly every down in the fourth quarter, Stull had no chance, unable to get the ball into his playmakers hands.

 

This defensive line is actually getting some pressure – a pass rush would go a long way towards improving their horrific secondary.  But these linebackers are slow and weak – mismatches every time a skill position player is matched up against one of them.  And boy, this defense really ran out of gas by the fourth quarter.  The effort just wasn’t there late!  The offense didn’t have a pass play longer than 20 yards through three quarters and QB Andrew Robinson turned the ball over deep in his own territory, the game changing pick six that sucked the life out of this team….as has happened so many times in recent years.  Robinson seemed to get worse as the game progressed, just chucking the ball up for grabs repeatedly.  This team looks like a ‘quit’ team and it’s only Week 1!

 

Absolute domination at the line of scrimmage, particularly on defense.  Not impressed with QB Andy Dalton’s ability to throw the football.  He’s a good runner out of the pocket, but this passing game is rather limited.  This team is every bit as good as BYU and Utah on the defensive side of the ball; maybe better.  But Dalton is no Brian Johnson or Max Hall, not even close.

 

Joe McKnight continues to have problems with fumbled punts, the type of mistakes that just won’t cut it in his second year as the return man.  In their best years, USC went for the jugular as well as any team in the country, piling on score after score, even when winning in blowout fashion.  I didn’t see that same mentality from the Trojans last year, but we saw some of that mentality in the second half here.   Mark Sanchez keeps having his passes knocked down at the line of scrimmage; no arc on the football.  Good thing he has an amazing receiving corps to bail him out – Sanchez was only modestly impressive here, although he did throw a beautiful 50+ yard spiral to a wide open Ronald Johnson for a big play touchdown, the score that really blew the game open.

 

This defense is built around speed – they are getting to the football quickly.  But, as they have done repeatedly in season openers in recent years, lots of mistakes on the road in a place you can’t make mistakes – fumbled punt return, penalty negating an interception. BCS conference level talent on offense as well – this is a legit Top 25 team.  Brian Johnson looks very confident and very comfortable as a senior running the offense.  But with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, Utah lost their composure, doing everything they possibly could to lose – blocked punts, turnovers deep in their own territory, penalties in bunches.  Those type of mistakes will come back to haunt them against a better class of opponent down the line.

 

The Cavs are really struggling on both sides of the line of scrimmage, getting pushed around badly.  This is not a team brimming with confidence right about now.  Even when they stopped the bleeding with a nice long TD drive – no quit down three touchdowns, the extra effort didn’t last for long.  They did have success with the short, quick passing game, negating the weakness on their offensive line, but that was about the only thing they did right offensively.  Four consecutive second half turnovers = very ugly loss.

 

Sean Glennon is just terrible.  Frank Beamer will regret the decision to redshirt soph QB Tyrod Taylor.  Glennon has been putting up subpar stats for two years, despite playing behind a veteran offensive line and thowing to NFL caliber receivers.  This year, his receivers are less than NFL caliber, his offensive line isn’t as good, and his two interceptions in the first half were both just awful throws, the kind of throws that senior quarterbacks simply can’t be making on top notch teams.  Still Beamer ball – fumble return touchdown, blocked extra point = nine cheap points.  Surprising number of missed tackles on defense –perhaps this unit, too, is down a notch.  And this two minute drill on offense, trailing by five with two minutes to go is an absolute joke – Glennon’s throws weren’t anywhere near his receivers.  This team deserved to lose by a wider margin than they did!

 

Impressive defensive showing early on – good tackling, good sideline to sideline speed, not getting blown off the line of scrimmage. This team didn’t miss a tackle all day, really playing out of their minds defensively!  After a horrible first half offensively, Wassou came out after halftime and ran the ball down Okie State’s throat; two consecutive long, grind it out drives.  Big punting problems – three punts, three line drives, three big returns the other way.  Then the kicker missed his first extra point try.  Short cornerbacks are having a very hard time with big receivers on jump-ball routes.  Not impressed with QB Gary Rodgers, big drop-off in comparison to NFL-bound Alex Brink.

 

New QB Dax Crum seems more comfortable running out of the pocket than throwing.  Boy, this QB is staring down his receivers badly, throwing to the wrong guy, throwing balls up for grabs --- I’m not impressed with Crum at all.  Solid skill position talent here, both at RB and at WR – these playmakers have the potential to be pretty good, even though big play touchdowns are the exception rather than the rule for this squad.  New kicker, new punter and it seems as if Joe Glenn doesn’t necessarily trust either one.  Eight yard net punts just don’t cut it!

Alabama - Kicker Leigh Tiffin nailed a 54 yard field goal to open the scoring.  What a weapon!  He gives the Tide a chance to score from anywhere inside the 35 yard line.  John Parker Wilson is playing like a senior quarterback, leading scoring drives on the Tide’s first four possessions.  This team might be pretty darn good.  Impressive defensive showing, really dominant at the line of scrimmage!

 

Auburn - This team does not look ready for prime time just yet.  The offense doesn’t have a quality QB, and they are still learning how to play at their new ultra-uptempo pace, yet another new offense for the Tigers to learn.  First three drives against a Sun Belt foe = three punts.  The defense isn’t blowing up the line of scrimmage, giving up too many easy yards early.  It didn’t seem too difficult to dink and dunk down the field against this D.  Thin and young in the secondary.  Once again Tuberville’s team is not ready to go in their season opener.  But they are scoring non-offensive TD’s: first two TD’s of the game were on a fumble return and a punt return.  Last punt return TD for Auburn came in 1996!   They covered the spread here, but this team looks way over-rated on both sides of the football. 

 

Bowling Green - This offense is moving the football against a speedy, talented, experienced Pitt defense!  Misdirection, multiple formations – they’ll put up points in bunches against mediocre, poorly coached or un-athletic defenses.  Surprisingly strong run defense – they were not pushed around at the line of scrimmage at all.

Clemson - Senior quarterback Cullen Harper still doesn’t know when to throw the ball away, taking a drive killing sack in the red zone when he shouldn’t.  Rebuilt offensive line – the QB has to know that he doesn’t have much time to get rid of the football.  I’m not sure why this defense was hyped – certainly didn’t look like an elite level stop unit here.  First four possessions, four scores allowed.  And the offensive line was every bit as bad as advertised.  One big pass play; the other 14 plays on their first four drives went for a total of 17 yards.

 

Cal - Why is there a quarterback battle here?  Nate Longshore was terrible, and his pick six before halftime was truly a bench-able offense.  After the pick six, Kevin Riley marched the team right down the field with a couple of beautifully thrown balls, right into the end zone, gaining all the momentum back.  Good team speed here – this team was faster than plodding Michigan State.  RB Best is insanely fast – don’t let this guy get into open space or he’s gone. And Shane Vereen looks pretty special as well. Right now this is a fairly pedestrian passing offense – their big plays will have to come from the running game, which means that when they play a grade A run defense, this offense isn’t going to move the football.  FB Will Ta’ufo’ou was delivering some monster blocks!

 

East Carolina - This defense is not getting pushed around at the line of scrimmage by a legit Top 20 foe!  In fact, they are really controlling the tempo here – no big runs allowed, lots of penetration into the backfield.  I like the attitude here – they seemed to dig down deep both times when they were trailing by more than one score, on both sides of the football.  This team isn’t going to lay down when faced with adversity.

 

Florida - First defensive touchdown of the year came early in the second quarter.  This defense is going to score a lot of touchdowns this year!  I know that Tim Tebow is the reigning Heisman winner, and I know he’s really good, but every time I watch him, I’m amazed at how good he actually is – this is a QB with no flaws along with the speed to burn defenses and the arm strength to fire accurately 50 yards downfield on the run.  Third TD was a 74 yard punt return – NEVER forget how many touchdowns this team is capable of scoring without their offense on the field.  Fourth touchdown came on a 34 yard run, another big play TD from redshirt frosh Chris Rainey.  This team speed is going to far too much for weaker foes to handle.  Eight first half penalties is definitely a concern for a team that ranked among the nation’s leaders in penalties last year. 

 

Hawaii - Four first half turnovers on the road isn’t going to cut it – Hawaii’s offense in 2008 is not going to look anything like their offense in 2007.  Speed (or lack thereof) is definitely a problem for this team on the rare occasions when they step up in class…but it’ll affect them at Fresno and at Boise early in their WAC campaign.

 

Illinois - Juice looks pretty darn solid as a third year starter, much more comfortable throwing the football than he was last year at this time.  I like the receiving talent here as well – not just Arrelius Benn. This is, without a doubt, the best I’ve seen the Illini passing game look since Kurt Kittner graduated.  Can this defense stop anybody? 

 

Louisiana-Monroe - Rebuilt offensive line is struggling against an SEC defense, no surprise.  But overall, I was impressed with this team.  Their defense was excellent throughout, good, strong tackling.   While the offense couldn’t connect on the big play, they moved the ball fairly effectively, able to get some easy first downs – at least in the first half.  Dropped passes killed this team – the receiving corps is not as good as quarterback Kinsmon Lancaster.

 

Louisiana Tech - Good field goal kicker, Brad Oestricher.  His 48 yarder split the uprights to put the Bulldogs on the board, and his 50 yarder in the fourth quarter was just as big.  QB Taylor Bennett wasn’t very good at Georgia Tech, and he didn’t look very good here either. The only exception?  Third and long, as Bennett picked up a handful of big gainers with nice throws.  He took a bunch of hits early, might have upset his timing and rhythm.  But this offense did something, reaching Mississippi State territory an amazing ten times in this ballgame, moving the ball consistently all afternoon.  Still, ten drives into your opponents territory and only 22 points isn’t going to cut it very often.

 

Michigan - Starting QB Nick Sheridan is no Pat White, that’s for sure – he can’t run and his throws were downright awful!  No surprise, then – three and out on their first possession.  LOL, Michigan faces a spread offense in practice every day now but they still can’t avoid giving up big plays in the passing game against fairly simple spread offense passing routes.  This defense is a major disappointment early on, allowing 215 yards in the first 20 minutes of play.  They didn’t force a punt until there was less than two minutes remaining in the first half.  I’m not seeing any big play potential from this offense – all simple dinks and dunks with a young QB behind center.  QB Threet isn’t much better – this offense can’t move the football at all!  All three Wolverines touchdowns came on drives of 33 yards or less following special teams mistakes or turnovers.

 

Michigan State - Senior QB Brian Hoyer is a smart passer, heady kid.  He makes good decisions under pressure.  And he puts the ball where only his receiver can catch it, perfect fade route for their first touchdown (overturned on replay).  Unfortunately, he really wasn’t all that sharp here, not all that dissimilar from his subpar showing against Boston College in the bowl last December.  This defense really lacks athleticism – Sparty Spartans are slow.  This team lost their composure on the road in a tough environment – too many mistakes.  Defensive depth is definitely a concern – they simply ran out of gas as a unit in the fourth quarter.

 

Minnesota - This defense can’t stop the run.  Poor tackling!  Their pass defense isn’t much better, allowed 10 completions in 12 first half pass attempts, and a 90 yard touchdown in the second half (poor tackling and bad angles) to get Northern Illinois right back in the game.  At least the offense is showing big play ability, something they lacked last year.  Two touchdowns to open up the third quarter both came on 50+ yard plays, one run, one pass.  Not thrilled with this QB play either – lots of very poorly thrown balls from Adam Weber.  1-11 last year, and nothing about their Week 1 performance indicated that the Gophers are primed for a turnaround in ’08.

 

Mississippi State - At times, QB Wesley Carroll stepped up in the pocket and found receivers downfield.  His big WR’s were making plays after the catch.  But this offensive line is struggling against a mediocre WAC level defensive front; couldn’t handle the blitz at all = first INT of the game.  Second INT was just a bad throw.   Third INT was horrible – throwing late, over the middle, for the second consecutive pass after he almost had one picked off the previous throw.  In the red zone!   Backup QB Tyson Lee was a walk-on this past January, a JUCO transfer, although he did get a scholarship for fall.  No ability to stretch the defense. This team still is not blessed with quality QB play, an issue that has plagued them repeatedly throughout the Sylvester Croom era.

Missouri - This offense is really tough to stop.  Wow!  And with Jeremy Macklin returning punts and kicks, they’ll have ample opportunity for quick scoring drives thanks to the short field they’ll be on.  But I’m not sold on this defense, particularly against the pass – lots of open receivers downfield.  Certainly didn’t look like a national championship caliber defense here.  Remember, in their two losses last year, the Tigers allowed 41 and 38 points!

 

 

The opening weekend of college football showed some dramatic disparities from conference to conference, giving us a real idea of the under and over valued conferences for the upcoming campaign.   This strategy has worked well during bowl season, when it’s crucial to identify under and over valued conferences in the early bowls, giving us a big edge for the later bowl games.

 

Let’s start with the successful ATS conferences.  I threw out all conference games for the purposes of this report, concentrating exclusively on the non-conference matchups:

 

The SEC did great.  Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida, Alabama, Auburn and Kentucky all won and covered.  Tennessee and Mississippi State both lost outright as favorites.  As a conference, the SEC went 7-2 ATS on the opening weekend.

 

The PAC-10 also enjoyed a banner weekend.  UCLA, USC, Cal and Arizona took care of business, while only Washington State came up short.  The PAC-10 went 4-1 ATS on the opening weekend.

 

The Big 12 cashed tickets for their backers.  Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas, Kansas State and Colorado were ATS winners, while Texas A+M, Baylor and Kansas failed to cash.  The Big 12 went 6-3 ATS on the opening weekend.

 

The MAC was the fourth conference worth betting on.  Temple, Buffalo, Ohio U, Akron, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green cashed tickets for their supporters.  Miami-Ohio, Kent and Western Michigan all came up short.  The MAC, like the Big 12, went 6-3 ATS on the opening weekend.

 

Coming into the season, the SEC, Big 12 and PAC-10 were widely regarded as the three best conferences in the country, in that order.  And handicappers, as a group, were very high on the MAC this year, with the cyclical nature of this conference indicating that this would be an ‘up’ year for this particular ‘mid-major’ conference.  All four conferences paid out like a broken slot machine this past weekend, combining to go 23-9 ATS.

 

Of course, there is another side to this story.  The Big 10, ACC and Big East were all expected to be down a notch or two this year, the weaker half of the major conferences.  The Week 1 results certainly showed that the preseason assessments were right on the money.

 

It was a disastrous weekend for the Big East.  Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Louisville all lost SU and ATS; with three of those four losses coming as favorites.  No Big East team covered a spread this past weekend, 0-4 as a conference.

 

The Big 10 wasn’t much better.  Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan State all went down to ATS defeat, while only Northwestern managed to cover a spread (and that deserves an asterisk, against the worst major conference team in the country, Syracuse).  I’m not counting the Western Kentucky-Indiana game for this report, the only ‘middle’ on sides for the weekend, as Western covered the opening number (+21) but did not cover the closing number (+17) in their 18 point loss to the Hoosiers.  As a whole, the Big 10 went 1-5 ATS.

 

The ACC suffered a number of high profile defeats.  Virginia Tech went down, as did Virginia, Clemson and NC State, all in rather ugly fashion.  Only BC and Wake Forest managed to cash tickets for the ACC, leaving the conference with a 2-4 mark.

 

And let’s not forget the Sun Belt when we’re talking about weaker conferences.  The Sun Belt has been the ultimate bottom feeder conference since it’s creation a decade ago, and the opening week’s results showed that the gap between the Sun Belt and the better conferences has not been eradicated in the slightest.  Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana-Lafayette, Florida Atlantic and North Texas all got crushed SU and ATS this past weekend.  Florida International only lost by 30 and 36’ point underdogs, while Arkansas State won outright at Texas A+M.  I’m grading the Sun Belt with a 2-4 mark for the opening weekend.

 

The four bet against conferences listed above went a combined 5-17 ATS.

 

Conference USA went 2-2.  The Mountain West went 1-3.  The WAC went 3-2.  And the only independent to play a lined game was Army, who lost badly to Temple.  I don’t think we’ve seen enough out of any of these conferences to draw significant judgments just yet.

 

It’s worth noting that of the 41 games played this past weekend, 32 were decided by double digit margins.  Only nine games were decided by less than ten points.  That probably explains much of the success by the favorites on the opening weekend of college football – chalk cashed at a 60% clip, 24-16 against the number.

 

There weren’t many fourth quarter comebacks on the opening weekend.  Wyoming rallied from six points down to beat Ohio U by one.  Minnesota blew a double digit lead, but managed to score the winning touchdown with less than 30 seconds to go against Northern Illinois.  East Carolina rallied from two scores down in the fourth quarter to beat Virginia Tech.  That’s it for successful fourth quarter comebacks!  Oregon State, Michigan State, Tennessee and Texas A+M all came up short in their fourth quarter comeback attempts.

I watched four games last night.  Here are my stream of consciousness thoughts as I tapped away on my laptop on the eight teams in play.  Particularly in college football, my philosophy is simple – believe what you see, not what you read prior to the season…

 

Special teams problems right from the get-go – 10 yard net punt set up a Wake field goal.  Secondary is playing fairly well – no open receivers downfield.  This offense looks very, very pedestrian, and that’s probably giving it too much credit – they couldn’t move the football at all.  One first down first four drives,and they were in third and long every time.  QB Kirby Freeman stunk at Miami and he stinks here.  Frosh QB Robert Griffin at least can run out of the pocket, but his throws were not pretty, to put it mildly -- overthrows, underthrows, the works.  Frosh kicker = missed first extra point of the game.

 

Special teams problems right from the start.  Gave up long punt return, returned down to the one yard line.  Strong goal line stand – took Vandy four plays to get one yard, and Vandy didn’t really get it – generous official’s call.  Eugene Harris is a playmaker – he can make people miss, the kind of guy who can turn a missed tackle into a touchdown… as he did for the Red Hawks first touchdown.  This defense does NOT have the speed to contain explosive offenses.  If this is the best defense that the MAC has to offer this year, the MAC isn’t going to notch many non-conference wins against the six major conferences .

 

New quarterback Russell Wilson is spooked already – happy feet in the pocket, won’t step up into his throws, no confidence in his demeanor or in his play.  Then again, when he was carted off the field in the second quarter, it made Tom O’Brien’s QB decision a little bit easier.  Then again, Daniel Evans hasn’t done much since his first few starts two years ago.  This defense looks rather nasty; clearly the strength of this football team.  But this offense continues to make all kinds of mistakes, just like last year – they can’t even get the quarterback-center shotgun exchange right, leading to the first points of the game right before halftime.  RB Andre Brown looks really good – hits the line hard, explosive back, but this offensive line is awful and so is the QB play.  Good runner, good defense, bad OL, bad QB – this feels like a dead nuts Under team.

 

Freshman punter, freshman snapper, sophomore kicker with one previous field goal attempt – this has the potential to be a real problem area.  How about that – it was – first punt of the game was blocked. This defense lost every one of their starters on the front seven to graduation and it showed – not much of a pass rush, poor tackling and poor angles.  WR Sammy Stroughter is back, but does he still have the same explosiveness as he did prior to last year’s debacle?  He couldn’t catch up to a deep ball, but it was hard to tell if it was overthrown, or if he just couldn’t get there.   Hard to tell with the poor QB play – Lyle Moevao wasn’t good last year and he doesn’t look very good this year.  Too many throws that should have connected but did not, and a couple of really awful throws in the second half that cost them the game.

 

Defensive front looks very good – dominating the line of scrimmage.  But, for the fourth consecutive year, Steve Spurrier doesn’t have a quarterback.  Beecher’s first pick was badly overthrown.  His second pick of the first quarter was a poor throw and a poor decision, staring down his receiver without looking off the defender.  Part of the problem is clearly the offensive line – they didn’t give any protection to their quarterback.  Longest drive of the game for the starting QB?  34 yards – this was not a strong performance from a QB that threw four picks – this job is wide open for Smelley to take.  Smelley’s fourth quarter heroics came against a tired defense with absolutely wide open receivers and no pass rush – don’t take too much from it.

 

Even when the Cardinal move down the field, it’s ugly to watch, one busted play after the next.  Toby Gerhart’s big touchdown run was nothing but effort and missed tackles on the other side.  The Cardinal’s first touchdown was all Gerhart as well – 36 yard run, fourth down conversion, tough yards up the middle.  I don’t like this zone defense in the two minute drill.  Oregon State had all the time in the world to throw, and every receiver downfield was open for 15 yard completions.  It took the Beavers about two seconds to march down the field.  It’s clear that this coaching staff does not trust their cornerbacks in coverage against better athletes.  But there’s no discounting the effort here, reflecting the personality of their head coach – Jim Harbaugh played hard, and his team does as well.  This final score does not reflect Stanford weaknesses – we should get decent value betting against this team in the weeks to come.

 

This offensive line is still very much a work in progress – not sure they’ll be able to move the football against SEC caliber defenses.  Quarterback  Chris Nickson is proving why the SEC is going to give MAC teams trouble.  A simple QB counter turns into a 60 yard gain as he outruns the entire defense down to the red zone.  Then he outrushed every defender to the outside for the touchdown.  Great game both running and passing from Nickson – his overall passing numbers were hurt by a handful of drops.  This team looks much better in real life than they did on paper – the overall level of athleticism in this program is truly SEC level.

 

How many points is kicker Sam Swank worth?  His kickoffs routinely go for touchbacks kickoffs were going way into the end zone, forcing touchbacks, not allowing returns.  And his field goal attempts are downright automatic.  I say he’s worth at least a FG to the pointspread.  These receivers are not getting open downfield – every pass is a dink or a dunk to the underneath guy.  Riley Skinner is smart – knows exactly where to go when the blitz comes.  He’s more than willing to use that old cliché – take what the defense gives him.  Wake does such a good job at taking advantage of opportunities on defense, grabbing tipped passes out of the air for picks, etc.  This team gets to loose footballs.

 

My NFL Season Win Report comes out later this morning, at 10 AM Pacific Time.  I take this report extremely seriously, making it an area of focus throughout the summer months.  I’ve written several times about the ‘strength of schedule’ issue, and how I make my own numbers that are quite different from what the NFL uses.  You can read about the process RIGHT HERE

 

Not to sound egotistical, but plain and simple: my stuff works, and nobody else is using it.  The numbers don’t lie.  My lifetime record with NFL Season Win bets is 44-17 (72%).  My Best Bets (20* Big Tickets) are 5-1.  Last year, I won my best bet and went 6-2 overall.  I expect to achieve similar results in 2008.

 

What follows is my ENTIRE season win report from 2007.  I’ve posted it here so you, the reader, can understand exactly what I’m talking about, and the type of analysis you’ll get when you purchase this year’s report. 

 

 

 

 

Baltimore Ravens Under 9.5 Wins

 

Carolina Panthers Under 9

Cleveland Browns Under 6

Detroit Lions Over 6

Denver Broncos Under 9.5

Kansas City Chiefs Under 7.5

Oakland Raiders Over 5

Washington Redskins Over 7.5

 

Baltimore was one of the surprise teams in the NFL last year, cruising to a 13-3 record and a first round bye before getting dominated at home by the Colts in the playoffs.  But a closer look at those results tells us that the Ravens are going to have a very hard time coming close to matching them in 2007.  Baltimore faced a laughably easy schedule in ’06, meeting only two playoff teams all year.  They finished #1 in the league in total defense, #1 in points allowed, #1 in turnover differential, #1 in interceptions, #2 in sacks and #1 in fewest sacks allowed, as Steve McNair was brought down behind the line only 17 times all year.

 

This tells us one thing – the Ravens have nowhere to go but down.  Their schedule this year is brutal compared to last year.  Look at this stretch over the second half of the campaign: @ Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, @ San Diego, New England, Indianapolis, @ Seattle, Pittsburgh again, sandwiched around easier games vs. Cleveland and @ Miami.  That’s seven playoff caliber teams in a nine week stretch following their bye.  Even if Baltimore starts the season 7-0, they’ll have a hard time eclipsing 9.5 wins.

 

When a team finishes #1 in virtually every meaningful defensive category, again, there is no room for improvement, only decline.  Replacing pro bowl linebacker Adalius Thomas won’t be an easy task, and CB Samari Rolle has the potential to be a weak link in a secondary that relies on tight man coverage to facilitate their blitzing attack.  Let’s not forget that MLB Ray Lewis is now an eleven year veteran, not the dominating player that he once was

 

With a defense poised to decline, the offense will need to step up.  Based on all indications, that’s not going to happen.  Steve McNair is not the player he once was either.  McNair’s QB rating was a modest 82.5 last year, and that was his best rating since 2003.  During the preseason, McNair showed absolutely no touch on his long ball, and the Ravens receiving corps continues to be one of the weaker units in the league.  But the biggest concern is on the offensive line, where Jonathan Ogden is already on the PUP list, leaving only one proven starter returning to that unit.  They are learning new blocking schemes as well, making this a subpar OL, unlikely to open holes for Willis McGahee or create time for McNair to find open receivers.  That #1 turnover differential ranking from ’06 is headed south in a hurry.

 

Baltimore feasted on the weak last year, destroying bottom tier offenses.  This year, facing a much tougher slate, the Ravens are going to need much more offensive production than they are capable of creating, making them a clear Under team for 2007, worthy of 20* Big Ticket status.

 

Single Best Current Line:

9.5 (+105) Bodog

 

The heat is on John Fox this year after Carolina vastly underperformed compared to their expectations last year, finishing with a disappointing 8-8 record.  In the offseason, he passed the buck, placing the blame squarely on his assistants, jettisoning a decent portion of his long time staff.  Unfortunately for Fox, signs do not point towards improvement in ’07 – this is a head coach who could be out of a job before the season is through.  If Carolina gets off to a lousy start, the Bill Cowher rumblings will become deafening to both the players and the staff.

 

Carolina has all sorts of offensive problems.  New coordinator Jeff Davidson will have his hands full making this offense click on all cylinders.  Jake Delhomme is coming off a horrible year, and there is potential for a quarterback controversy if he continues to struggle, with former #1 overall draft choice David Carr inking a deal in the offseason.  The offensive line is a miserable unit that paved the way for only the 24^th ranked rushing attack last year.  The Panthers are learning a new zone blocking scheme, and they are counting heavily on the effective return of several injured starters from last year.  Based on their preseason results, this OL remains in a world of hurt.  And Carolina still hasn’t found an effective weapon in the passing game on the other side from Steve Smith, who now faces double coverage on virtually every passing down.

 

The Panthers back seven defensively is another area of weakness.  Veteran safety Mike Minter came to training camp, saw how bad the situation was, and promptly retired, leaving a huge void at safety.  Dan Morgan hasn’t been able to stay healthy as the middle linebacker position, and rookie Jon Beason will be pressed into action on the weak side.  Yes, their pass rush ranks among the best in the league, but other than that one unit, this defense is loaded with question marks.

 

The Panthers need ten wins to beat us.  They’ve finished at .500 or worse twice in the last three years, collapsing down the stretch each time, like their 2-4 fade with the playoffs within reach last year.  This year, their schedule down the stretch is brutal: Saints, 49ers, Jaguars, Seahawks and Cowboys over a five week span, five teams that can put up points in bunches, something Carolina cannot be expected to do.

 

Single Best Current Line:

9 (-105) Pinnacle

 

There’s absolutely no ray of light for the long suffering Browns; no hope on the horizon just yet.  Cleveland plays in a division with three other legitimate playoff contenders, a trio of teams that has combined to go 11-1 against the Browns over the last two years, the lone win coming in a meaningless season finale.  Only eight players remain on the roster from 2004, when GM Phil Savage took over – there’s no sense of continuity here.  Head coach Romeo Crennel is firmly on the hot seat – he may not be around to see this bet cash in December.  The Browns are learning a new offense under new coordinator Rod Chudzinsky, so we can expect numerous growing pains.  In fact, given the talent level and inexperience on hand, it’s hard to expect any sort of significant improvement from an offense that ranked 31^st in the NFL last year.

 

Cleveland ranks below the league average on every single unit.  Crennel will be forced to start Derek Anderson or Charlie Frye at quarterback to start the season, the worst ranked duo in the league last year.  Those two are just keeping the seat warm for Brady Quinn, who should be starting before the halfway point.  Don’t be fooled by Quinn’s decent stats in the second half of some preseason games – this QB consistently couldn’t move the football against elite level college defenses, let alone NFL ones.  There’s a reason that his stock dropped like a rock on draft day.

 

The Browns have three new starters on their offensive line, including a rookie tackle.  Their big free agent acquisition, running back Jamal Lewis, can’t break many tackles at this stage of his career.  The untested quarterbacks are going to have to shoulder the load in this offense, with a subpar OL and a limited running game to support them.  All three defensive line starters are over 30, providing no pass rush without blitzers.  The secondary looks like a disaster area, with second round draft choice, rookie Eric Wright out of UNLV, potentially the opening day starter along side injury prone Leigh Bodden.

 

A bad looking offense and a bad looking defense are a horrific combination for a coach on the hot seat.  But it gets worse.  According to my numbers, the Browns face one of the tougher schedules in the NFL this year.  Their first three home games?  Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Baltimore, which means that they face all three of those teams on the road in the second half of the campaign.  Chalk up six losses.  For the Browns to beat us, they’ll need to go 7-3 in their remaining games.  Even the most optimistic Browns fan would agree that accomplishing that task would be extremely difficult even under the best of circumstances.

 

Single Best Current Line:

6 (-115) Bodog

 

When Jon Kitna boldly predicted that Detroit would win ten games or more in 2007 this past offseason, it brought a collective shrug from the sportsbetting world.  After all, no team in the NFL has been worse than the Detroit Lions this decade.  Since Matt Millen took over the general manager’s job back in 2001, the Lions are a woeful 24-72.  But this year, it appears as if Millen finally has the right combination of coaching and talent for the Lions to turn things around.

 

I’m a Rod Marinelli fan.  Marinelli didn’t lose the team when things went south for Detroit again last year.  He didn’t lose the team when injuries besieged the Lions on both sides of the football.  The 3-13 Lions were competitive down the stretch, beating the Cowboys and taking the Bears and Patriots to the wire in the final month of the season.  Now, we’ve got a second year head coach who is obviously admired and respected by his team.  Marinelli weeded out the vast majority of the malcontents in the offseason, jettisoning unhappy veterans while bringing in Marinelli character guys like CB Travis Fisher from St Louis, offensive linemen George Foster (Denver) and Edwin Mulitalo (Baltimore), RB Tatum Bell (Denver), and DE Dewayne White (Tampa Bay).

 

It’s the second year of Mike Martz’s complex offense, and we can expect better results than Detroit was able to achieve in 2006, typical of the learning curve for new offensive schemes.  The Lions offensive line certainly can’t get any worse.  The unit was devastated with injuries last year, allowing a league high 63 sacks while paving the way for a league low 70 rushing yards per game.  Look for the two free agent signees to have a major impact on the OL.  Damien Woody, a former pro bowler, spent the summer at a Duke University fat camp, to keep his weight problems under control.  This OL has only one direction is can go, based on last year’s results – up!

  

The Lions front seven is loaded, talent wise, as the team has spent numerous first day draft picks shoring up their line and linebackers.  Shaun Rogers, Kalimba Edwards, Ernie Sims, Teddy Lehman and Boss Bailey were all first or second round picks during the Millen era, but none have been able to stay healthy and live up to expectations.  DE Dewayne White played for Marinelli in Tampa, and should have an immediate impact on their pass rush.  More than anything else, this unit needs to stay healthy, because the talent level is here for a dramatic turnaround.  Let’s not forget that Detroit lost more starter games due to injury last year than any other team in the NFL. 

 

The Lions schedule is fairly reasonable, not one of the tougher slates in the league.  The Lions play ten games (Oakland, Minnesota twice, Green Bay twice, Washington, Tampa Bay, Arizona, NY Giants and Kansas City) against teams with 2007 season Over/Under win totals lined lower than 8 – teams that are expected by the oddsmakers and the betting public to sub.500 squads.  That’s the type of schedule that turns losing teams into winning ones, and the Lions don’t even need a winning season to cash our ticket.

 

Single Best Current Line:

6 (-170) Station properties, Las Vegas

 

The future is now in Denver, as Jay Cutler enters his second season in the NFL as the firmly entrenched starting quarterback for the Broncos.  Remember, for all the hype, Cutler is essentially a rookie, with only five career starts under his belt.  The Broncos won only two of those five starts, and Cutler’s ATS record as the starter was a troubling 1-4, despite the success of Denver’s running game with him in the lineup, averaging just shy of 140 yards per game on the ground in those last five contests.  The Broncos are short on weapons at wide receiver, with the inconsistent Brandon Marshall trying to step up, the aging Rod Smith languishing on the PUP list, and veteran free agent acquisition Brandon Stokely coming off a serious injury.  While the left side of the line remains rock solid, the right side is clearly in flux through the first few preseason games, leaving prize free agent signee Travis Henry struggling to find holes to run through.  Remember, the Broncos scored 20 points or less in half their games last year, and this offense is no better than it was last year.

 

The Broncos spent three of their top four draft choices on the defensive line.  They’ll clearly need the rookies to step up now that Ebenezer Ekuban is out for the season and Gerard Warren has been traded to Oakland.  Top picks Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder will join holdovers Trevor Pryce and Elvis Dumervil in creating a fierce pass rush. But the middle of the defensive line is loaded with question marks – Denver doesn’t look very capable of stopping the run up front, with 14 year veteran Sam Adams really starting to slow down.  The Broncos lost their emotional on-field leader when Al Wilson departed in the offseason, raising questions about their linebacking corps as well. 

 

The Broncos were the NFL’s least penalized team last year, drawing only 67 flags for the entire season, lowest in team history.  That’s not going to happen two years in a row, especially with so many youngsters seeing playing time on both sides of the football.  And serious questions persist about the Broncos defense, a unit that gave up only two touchdowns in their first six games last year, then allowed 27 TD’s in the final ten games of the season? 

 

The Broncos have lost straight up as a favorite of three points or higher in their road opener in each of the last three seasons.  They open at Buffalo this year.  The Broncos have un-enviable road trips to Chicago and Indianapolis.  And the Broncos won’t enjoy much of a homefield edge late in the season, with only three home games (compared with six on the road) on tap for November and December.  Don’t confuse Invesco Field with Mile High Stadium – the Broncos have gone 4-4 SU in each of the last two seasons, and only covered one pointspread  in eight tries at home in 2006.

 

Single Best Current Line:

9.5 (+115) Bodog

 

 

Kansas City’s once powerful offensive line, with a pair of Hall of Fame caliber anchors in Willie Roaf and Will Shields, is a shell of the unit that it was three or four years ago.  When hapless left tackle Damian McIntosh from the Dolphins is the big offseason acquisition on the offensive line, it doesn’t bode well.  And the Chiefs are already embroiled in a quarterback controversy, with veteran Damon Huard winning the job in preseason because second year challenger Brodie Croyle wasn’t good enough to take over.  It’s clear that management is looking for Croyle and his ‘upside’ to take over at some point this season.  Without proven receiving weapons, running behind a subpar OL, expect Larry Johnson’s production to decline.  This team ranked 15^th in the NFL in scoring last year and 3^rd in the league in red zone touchdown percentage.  Expect both numbers to decline in ’07.

 

The Chiefs ranked in the middle of the pack defensively last year: 16th in total defense, 18th against both the run and the pass.  This year, their defense is a mix of aging veterans and untested youngsters.  The run defense will rely on rookies, with second and third rounders Turk McBride from Tennessee and Tank Tyler from NC State expected to receive ample playing time.  Their best pass rusher, Jared Allen, faces a league mandated suspension to start the campaign.  Free agent veterans Donnie Edwards and Napoleon Harris are not the type of playmakers to revitalize the linebacking corps.  Cornerbacks Ty Law and Patrick Surtain have combined for 21 years of NFL experience -- neither is the player that he was five years ago.  This is a mediocre unit at best.

 

Herm Edwards is under no pressure, secure in his job after last year’s playoff berth.  That means a long season in Kansas City, as Edwards looks to develop young talent.  Unless first round pick Dwayne Bowe can step up at wide receiver, the Chiefs passing game lacks teeth.  Their running game has been non-existent in training camp, putting their #3 ranking in red zone touchdown percentage from a year ago in serious jeopardy.  Given Edwards conservative nature and the Chiefs offensive concerns, betting Kansas City Under the total on a regular basis makes perfect sense to this bettor.  Let’s not forget a schedule that ranks as the third toughest in the NFL based on this year’s season O-U win numbers and the Chiefs are highly unlikely to reach the .500 mark in 2007.

 

Single Best Current Line:

7.5 (-130) Station Casinos, Las Vegas

 

Art Shell, Tom Walsh and the ‘Bed and Breakfast’ offense are in the rear view mirror, with Lane Kiffin becoming the youngest NFL head coach after a brief stint as USC’s offensive coordinator.  Kiffin will call the plays along with former Atlanta and San Francisco offensive coordinator Greg Knapp.  Oakland’s 2-14 season last year was largely the fault of an offense