My NFL Season Win Report comes out later this morning, at 10 AM Pacific Time.  I take this report extremely seriously, making it an area of focus throughout the summer months.  I’ve written several times about the ‘strength of schedule’ issue, and how I make my own numbers that are quite different from what the NFL uses.  You can read about the process RIGHT HERE

 

Not to sound egotistical, but plain and simple: my stuff works, and nobody else is using it.  The numbers don’t lie.  My lifetime record with NFL Season Win bets is 44-17 (72%).  My Best Bets (20* Big Tickets) are 5-1.  Last year, I won my best bet and went 6-2 overall.  I expect to achieve similar results in 2008.

 

What follows is my ENTIRE season win report from 2007.  I’ve posted it here so you, the reader, can understand exactly what I’m talking about, and the type of analysis you’ll get when you purchase this year’s report. 

 

 

 

 

Baltimore Ravens Under 9.5 Wins

 

Carolina Panthers Under 9

Cleveland Browns Under 6

Detroit Lions Over 6

Denver Broncos Under 9.5

Kansas City Chiefs Under 7.5

Oakland Raiders Over 5

Washington Redskins Over 7.5

 

Baltimore was one of the surprise teams in the NFL last year, cruising to a 13-3 record and a first round bye before getting dominated at home by the Colts in the playoffs.  But a closer look at those results tells us that the Ravens are going to have a very hard time coming close to matching them in 2007.  Baltimore faced a laughably easy schedule in ’06, meeting only two playoff teams all year.  They finished #1 in the league in total defense, #1 in points allowed, #1 in turnover differential, #1 in interceptions, #2 in sacks and #1 in fewest sacks allowed, as Steve McNair was brought down behind the line only 17 times all year.

 

This tells us one thing – the Ravens have nowhere to go but down.  Their schedule this year is brutal compared to last year.  Look at this stretch over the second half of the campaign: @ Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, @ San Diego, New England, Indianapolis, @ Seattle, Pittsburgh again, sandwiched around easier games vs. Cleveland and @ Miami.  That’s seven playoff caliber teams in a nine week stretch following their bye.  Even if Baltimore starts the season 7-0, they’ll have a hard time eclipsing 9.5 wins.

 

When a team finishes #1 in virtually every meaningful defensive category, again, there is no room for improvement, only decline.  Replacing pro bowl linebacker Adalius Thomas won’t be an easy task, and CB Samari Rolle has the potential to be a weak link in a secondary that relies on tight man coverage to facilitate their blitzing attack.  Let’s not forget that MLB Ray Lewis is now an eleven year veteran, not the dominating player that he once was

 

With a defense poised to decline, the offense will need to step up.  Based on all indications, that’s not going to happen.  Steve McNair is not the player he once was either.  McNair’s QB rating was a modest 82.5 last year, and that was his best rating since 2003.  During the preseason, McNair showed absolutely no touch on his long ball, and the Ravens receiving corps continues to be one of the weaker units in the league.  But the biggest concern is on the offensive line, where Jonathan Ogden is already on the PUP list, leaving only one proven starter returning to that unit.  They are learning new blocking schemes as well, making this a subpar OL, unlikely to open holes for Willis McGahee or create time for McNair to find open receivers.  That #1 turnover differential ranking from ’06 is headed south in a hurry.

 

Baltimore feasted on the weak last year, destroying bottom tier offenses.  This year, facing a much tougher slate, the Ravens are going to need much more offensive production than they are capable of creating, making them a clear Under team for 2007, worthy of 20* Big Ticket status.

 

Single Best Current Line:

9.5 (+105) Bodog

 

The heat is on John Fox this year after Carolina vastly underperformed compared to their expectations last year, finishing with a disappointing 8-8 record.  In the offseason, he passed the buck, placing the blame squarely on his assistants, jettisoning a decent portion of his long time staff.  Unfortunately for Fox, signs do not point towards improvement in ’07 – this is a head coach who could be out of a job before the season is through.  If Carolina gets off to a lousy start, the Bill Cowher rumblings will become deafening to both the players and the staff.

 

Carolina has all sorts of offensive problems.  New coordinator Jeff Davidson will have his hands full making this offense click on all cylinders.  Jake Delhomme is coming off a horrible year, and there is potential for a quarterback controversy if he continues to struggle, with former #1 overall draft choice David Carr inking a deal in the offseason.  The offensive line is a miserable unit that paved the way for only the 24^th ranked rushing attack last year.  The Panthers are learning a new zone blocking scheme, and they are counting heavily on the effective return of several injured starters from last year.  Based on their preseason results, this OL remains in a world of hurt.  And Carolina still hasn’t found an effective weapon in the passing game on the other side from Steve Smith, who now faces double coverage on virtually every passing down.

 

The Panthers back seven defensively is another area of weakness.  Veteran safety Mike Minter came to training camp, saw how bad the situation was, and promptly retired, leaving a huge void at safety.  Dan Morgan hasn’t been able to stay healthy as the middle linebacker position, and rookie Jon Beason will be pressed into action on the weak side.  Yes, their pass rush ranks among the best in the league, but other than that one unit, this defense is loaded with question marks.

 

The Panthers need ten wins to beat us.  They’ve finished at .500 or worse twice in the last three years, collapsing down the stretch each time, like their 2-4 fade with the playoffs within reach last year.  This year, their schedule down the stretch is brutal: Saints, 49ers, Jaguars, Seahawks and Cowboys over a five week span, five teams that can put up points in bunches, something Carolina cannot be expected to do.

 

Single Best Current Line:

9 (-105) Pinnacle

 

There’s absolutely no ray of light for the long suffering Browns; no hope on the horizon just yet.  Cleveland plays in a division with three other legitimate playoff contenders, a trio of teams that has combined to go 11-1 against the Browns over the last two years, the lone win coming in a meaningless season finale.  Only eight players remain on the roster from 2004, when GM Phil Savage took over – there’s no sense of continuity here.  Head coach Romeo Crennel is firmly on the hot seat – he may not be around to see this bet cash in December.  The Browns are learning a new offense under new coordinator Rod Chudzinsky, so we can expect numerous growing pains.  In fact, given the talent level and inexperience on hand, it’s hard to expect any sort of significant improvement from an offense that ranked 31^st in the NFL last year.

 

Cleveland ranks below the league average on every single unit.  Crennel will be forced to start Derek Anderson or Charlie Frye at quarterback to start the season, the worst ranked duo in the league last year.  Those two are just keeping the seat warm for Brady Quinn, who should be starting before the halfway point.  Don’t be fooled by Quinn’s decent stats in the second half of some preseason games – this QB consistently couldn’t move the football against elite level college defenses, let alone NFL ones.  There’s a reason that his stock dropped like a rock on draft day.

 

The Browns have three new starters on their offensive line, including a rookie tackle.  Their big free agent acquisition, running back Jamal Lewis, can’t break many tackles at this stage of his career.  The untested quarterbacks are going to have to shoulder the load in this offense, with a subpar OL and a limited running game to support them.  All three defensive line starters are over 30, providing no pass rush without blitzers.  The secondary looks like a disaster area, with second round draft choice, rookie Eric Wright out of UNLV, potentially the opening day starter along side injury prone Leigh Bodden.

 

A bad looking offense and a bad looking defense are a horrific combination for a coach on the hot seat.  But it gets worse.  According to my numbers, the Browns face one of the tougher schedules in the NFL this year.  Their first three home games?  Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Baltimore, which means that they face all three of those teams on the road in the second half of the campaign.  Chalk up six losses.  For the Browns to beat us, they’ll need to go 7-3 in their remaining games.  Even the most optimistic Browns fan would agree that accomplishing that task would be extremely difficult even under the best of circumstances.

 

Single Best Current Line:

6 (-115) Bodog

 

When Jon Kitna boldly predicted that Detroit would win ten games or more in 2007 this past offseason, it brought a collective shrug from the sportsbetting world.  After all, no team in the NFL has been worse than the Detroit Lions this decade.  Since Matt Millen took over the general manager’s job back in 2001, the Lions are a woeful 24-72.  But this year, it appears as if Millen finally has the right combination of coaching and talent for the Lions to turn things around.

 

I’m a Rod Marinelli fan.  Marinelli didn’t lose the team when things went south for Detroit again last year.  He didn’t lose the team when injuries besieged the Lions on both sides of the football.  The 3-13 Lions were competitive down the stretch, beating the Cowboys and taking the Bears and Patriots to the wire in the final month of the season.  Now, we’ve got a second year head coach who is obviously admired and respected by his team.  Marinelli weeded out the vast majority of the malcontents in the offseason, jettisoning unhappy veterans while bringing in Marinelli character guys like CB Travis Fisher from St Louis, offensive linemen George Foster (Denver) and Edwin Mulitalo (Baltimore), RB Tatum Bell (Denver), and DE Dewayne White (Tampa Bay).

 

It’s the second year of Mike Martz’s complex offense, and we can expect better results than Detroit was able to achieve in 2006, typical of the learning curve for new offensive schemes.  The Lions offensive line certainly can’t get any worse.  The unit was devastated with injuries last year, allowing a league high 63 sacks while paving the way for a league low 70 rushing yards per game.  Look for the two free agent signees to have a major impact on the OL.  Damien Woody, a former pro bowler, spent the summer at a Duke University fat camp, to keep his weight problems under control.  This OL has only one direction is can go, based on last year’s results – up!

  

The Lions front seven is loaded, talent wise, as the team has spent numerous first day draft picks shoring up their line and linebackers.  Shaun Rogers, Kalimba Edwards, Ernie Sims, Teddy Lehman and Boss Bailey were all first or second round picks during the Millen era, but none have been able to stay healthy and live up to expectations.  DE Dewayne White played for Marinelli in Tampa, and should have an immediate impact on their pass rush.  More than anything else, this unit needs to stay healthy, because the talent level is here for a dramatic turnaround.  Let’s not forget that Detroit lost more starter games due to injury last year than any other team in the NFL. 

 

The Lions schedule is fairly reasonable, not one of the tougher slates in the league.  The Lions play ten games (Oakland, Minnesota twice, Green Bay twice, Washington, Tampa Bay, Arizona, NY Giants and Kansas City) against teams with 2007 season Over/Under win totals lined lower than 8 – teams that are expected by the oddsmakers and the betting public to sub.500 squads.  That’s the type of schedule that turns losing teams into winning ones, and the Lions don’t even need a winning season to cash our ticket.

 

Single Best Current Line:

6 (-170) Station properties, Las Vegas

 

The future is now in Denver, as Jay Cutler enters his second season in the NFL as the firmly entrenched starting quarterback for the Broncos.  Remember, for all the hype, Cutler is essentially a rookie, with only five career starts under his belt.  The Broncos won only two of those five starts, and Cutler’s ATS record as the starter was a troubling 1-4, despite the success of Denver’s running game with him in the lineup, averaging just shy of 140 yards per game on the ground in those last five contests.  The Broncos are short on weapons at wide receiver, with the inconsistent Brandon Marshall trying to step up, the aging Rod Smith languishing on the PUP list, and veteran free agent acquisition Brandon Stokely coming off a serious injury.  While the left side of the line remains rock solid, the right side is clearly in flux through the first few preseason games, leaving prize free agent signee Travis Henry struggling to find holes to run through.  Remember, the Broncos scored 20 points or less in half their games last year, and this offense is no better than it was last year.

 

The Broncos spent three of their top four draft choices on the defensive line.  They’ll clearly need the rookies to step up now that Ebenezer Ekuban is out for the season and Gerard Warren has been traded to Oakland.  Top picks Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder will join holdovers Trevor Pryce and Elvis Dumervil in creating a fierce pass rush. But the middle of the defensive line is loaded with question marks – Denver doesn’t look very capable of stopping the run up front, with 14 year veteran Sam Adams really starting to slow down.  The Broncos lost their emotional on-field leader when Al Wilson departed in the offseason, raising questions about their linebacking corps as well. 

 

The Broncos were the NFL’s least penalized team last year, drawing only 67 flags for the entire season, lowest in team history.  That’s not going to happen two years in a row, especially with so many youngsters seeing playing time on both sides of the football.  And serious questions persist about the Broncos defense, a unit that gave up only two touchdowns in their first six games last year, then allowed 27 TD’s in the final ten games of the season? 

 

The Broncos have lost straight up as a favorite of three points or higher in their road opener in each of the last three seasons.  They open at Buffalo this year.  The Broncos have un-enviable road trips to Chicago and Indianapolis.  And the Broncos won’t enjoy much of a homefield edge late in the season, with only three home games (compared with six on the road) on tap for November and December.  Don’t confuse Invesco Field with Mile High Stadium – the Broncos have gone 4-4 SU in each of the last two seasons, and only covered one pointspread  in eight tries at home in 2006.

 

Single Best Current Line:

9.5 (+115) Bodog

 

 

Kansas City’s once powerful offensive line, with a pair of Hall of Fame caliber anchors in Willie Roaf and Will Shields, is a shell of the unit that it was three or four years ago.  When hapless left tackle Damian McIntosh from the Dolphins is the big offseason acquisition on the offensive line, it doesn’t bode well.  And the Chiefs are already embroiled in a quarterback controversy, with veteran Damon Huard winning the job in preseason because second year challenger Brodie Croyle wasn’t good enough to take over.  It’s clear that management is looking for Croyle and his ‘upside’ to take over at some point this season.  Without proven receiving weapons, running behind a subpar OL, expect Larry Johnson’s production to decline.  This team ranked 15^th in the NFL in scoring last year and 3^rd in the league in red zone touchdown percentage.  Expect both numbers to decline in ’07.

 

The Chiefs ranked in the middle of the pack defensively last year: 16th in total defense, 18th against both the run and the pass.  This year, their defense is a mix of aging veterans and untested youngsters.  The run defense will rely on rookies, with second and third rounders Turk McBride from Tennessee and Tank Tyler from NC State expected to receive ample playing time.  Their best pass rusher, Jared Allen, faces a league mandated suspension to start the campaign.  Free agent veterans Donnie Edwards and Napoleon Harris are not the type of playmakers to revitalize the linebacking corps.  Cornerbacks Ty Law and Patrick Surtain have combined for 21 years of NFL experience -- neither is the player that he was five years ago.  This is a mediocre unit at best.

 

Herm Edwards is under no pressure, secure in his job after last year’s playoff berth.  That means a long season in Kansas City, as Edwards looks to develop young talent.  Unless first round pick Dwayne Bowe can step up at wide receiver, the Chiefs passing game lacks teeth.  Their running game has been non-existent in training camp, putting their #3 ranking in red zone touchdown percentage from a year ago in serious jeopardy.  Given Edwards conservative nature and the Chiefs offensive concerns, betting Kansas City Under the total on a regular basis makes perfect sense to this bettor.  Let’s not forget a schedule that ranks as the third toughest in the NFL based on this year’s season O-U win numbers and the Chiefs are highly unlikely to reach the .500 mark in 2007.

 

Single Best Current Line:

7.5 (-130) Station Casinos, Las Vegas

 

Art Shell, Tom Walsh and the ‘Bed and Breakfast’ offense are in the rear view mirror, with Lane Kiffin becoming the youngest NFL head coach after a brief stint as USC’s offensive coordinator.  Kiffin will call the plays along with former Atlanta and San Francisco offensive coordinator Greg Knapp.  Oakland’s 2-14 season last year was largely the fault of an offense that scored only 12 touchdowns all year.  This team comes into the season with a chip on their shoulder, and something to prove, starting with Daunte Culpepper at quarterback.

 

Free agent pickups Dominic Rhodes at running back and Mike Williams at receiver are expected to have an immediate impact.  But the key is the offensive line, a truly woeful unit that allowed an NFL high 72 sacks last year while paving the way for an anemic, 29th ranked running game.  Offensive line coach Tom Cable has installed new zone blocking schemes in an effort to coax more production out of recent high draft picks like Robert Gallery and Jake Grove.  Free agent acquisitions Jeremy Newberry from the 49ers and Cooper Carlisle from the Broncos should have an immediate impact coaxing this revamped offense back to life 

 

Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and most of his staff survived the offseason head coaching change, and all eleven starters return on the defensive side of the football, the #3 ranked defense in the NFL last year.  Ryan, like his father Buddy, is a firm believer in attacking the line of scrimmage – no ‘read and react’ here.  Oakland’s CB tandem of Nnamdi Asomugha and Fabian Washington is the most underrated duo in the league, and their pass rush looks solid with Warren Sapp and Derrick Burgess re-energized under the new administration.

 

Nobody is expecting miracles from this team, but it firmly appears as if the Raiders have hit rock bottom and should be able to exceed last year’s awful results.  We can expect the Raiders string of 14 consecutive divisional losses ends this year, and Oakland faces a litany of weaker teams in ’07: Detroit, Cleveland, Miami, Tennessee and Houston are all on the slate in their first eight games.  With a win total of five, it’s not going to take a complete turnaround or even a return to respectability for us to cash – a half dozen wins against crappy foes will get the job done.

 

Single Best Current Line:

5 (-140) Station Casinos, Las Vegas

 

Joe Gibbs could have retired at the end of the disappointing 5-11 2006 campaign (the worst single season mark in his 15 year career) , and nobody would have said a word.  After all, the legendary head coach already has a Hall of Fame resume – he doesn’t need to be here.  Gibbs stayed because he thought his team had the potential to make some noise in 2007.  I agree with him, so Washington makes my win report as a team to bet ‘Over’ their total.

 

Washington probably has the best coaching staff in the league.  Defensive coordinator Greg Williams, offensive coordinator Al Saunders, DL coach Greg Blache and OL coach Joe Bugel all rank among the best at their respective positions.  Each one of those units has solid talent to work with.  Let’s start on the defensive side of the ball, where the Redskins fell from ninth in ’05 to 31^st in ’06.  The Redskins signed London Fletcher, the NFL’s top tackler over the last five years to shore up their middle linebacker position.  CB Fred Smoot was brought back after a season in Minnesota.  Rookie safety Laron Landry from LSU teams up with Sean Taylor, giving Washington the hardest hitting safety combination in the NFL.  This secondary has the potential to be nothing short of spectacular.  And, after a season in which all four starting defensive linemen were battling injuries, that unit is 100% healthy through the preseason.  Washington’s defense has looked great in August, arguably the best defense in the division.

 

Quarterback Jason Campbell had four different offensive coordinators in four years at Auburn.  Here in the NFL, he had two different offensive coordinators in his first two years on the job.  This is the first time since high school that Campbell has been truly acclimated and comfortable in the offense heading into the season.  But Washington is going to be a ‘run –first’ team, with Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts shouldering the load.  With the recent addition of perennial Jets pro-bowl candidate Pete Kendall, and the return to health of left tackle Chris Samuel, the Redskins could actually improve on their stellar numbers from last year: 4.5 yards per carry; only 19 sacks allowed in 489 drop-backs.

 

The Redskins play ten games against teams that are not expected to be playoff bound, lined Under 8 wins for the season.  Their first six home games include tilts against the Dophins, Giants, Lions, Cardinals, and Bills, with winnable road tilts at Green Bay, the Jets, Tampa and Minnesota.  Without a dominant team in their division, a .500 finish looks perfectly reasonable, and that’s all we need to cash our ticket.

 

Single Best Current Line:

7.5 +108 (Pinnacle)

If you don’t think that turnovers and injuries are the two most important considerations when handicapping NFL teams, witness the Baltimore Ravens.  In 2006, Baltimore stayed healthy and finished +17 in turnovers.  They finished 13-3, earning a first round bye in the playoffs.  Last year, the Ravens were riddled with injuries and finished -17 in turnovers.  Voila!  That 13-3 record transformed to 5-11, as Baltimore finished in last place in the AFC North.

 

Head coach Brian Billick lost his job as a result of last year’s disaster.  New head coach John Harbaugh has never been a coordinator at any level, earning his reputation as a special teams guru.  Harbaugh brought in Cam Cameron as the new offensive coordinator after Cameron’s disastrous tenure as the Dolphins head coach ended after a single 1-15 season.  His credentials as an offensive coordinator cannot be denied, with a tremendous track record when performing the same duties with the Chargers. 

 

Defensive coordinator Rex Ryan was retained to try and coax one more great season out of an aging group of veterans.  Without any flexibility under the salary cap, the Ravens avoided the inevitable rebuilding process here – Harbaugh’s pretty much got the same roster that Billick had last year, with a few notable exceptions.

 

It’s the eve of Week 3 of the preseason as I write this, and the Ravens still don’t have a starting quarterback following Steve McNair’s offseason retirement.  Troy Smith, the second year former Heisman winner out of Ohio State, has limited arm strength and is undersized for the NFL level, but he appears to have the inside track to earn the starting job.  Smith has great mobility, a major asset for a team with as many questions on the offensive line as the Ravens have. 

 

Rookie Joe Flacco was drafted in the first round as the QB of the future, but he’s played his way out of contention for the starting job with a poor camp.  It’s not an easy transition for a major college rookie quarterback, let alone a rookie quarterback out of FCS Delaware. 

 

Veteran Kyle Boller was a first round bust, a guy with the physical tools, but not the mental ones.  Boller can play well for quarters at a time, but his decision making under pressure can only be termed ‘disastrous’.  Whether Boller or Smith earns the starting job coming out of camp, they’ll likely be on a short leash.  Don’t be shocked if all three of these quarterbacks earn starts at some point in 2008.

 

At least the Ravens are set at running back, which is a very good thing considering how poor their passing game looks on paper.  Willis McGahee enjoyed a solid season last year after arriving from Buffalo, rushing for more than 1200 yards while catching 43 passes out of the backfield.  Second round draft choice Ray Rice (Rutgers) looks quite ready to share the load with McGahee, performing extremely well in his first preseason action.

 

Baltimore has absolutely no impact players at wide receiver.  Derrick Mason is 34 years old, coming off a 103 catch season.  He’s still got great hands, but is nothing more than an aging possession receiver at this stage of his career.  Mark Clayton is looking more and more like another first round bust, gaining only 531 yards on 48 catches in 16 games last year.  Demetrious Williams has great speed, but he’s only caught 42 passes in two years with the team.  Tight end Todd Heap is the best of the bunch, but he’s struggled to stay healthy, missing at least ten games twice in the last four years.

 

The offensive line is in complete flux right now, with new faces in new places at virtually every position.  Perennial pro bowl left tackle Jonathan Ogden has retired.  His replacement on the latest official team depth chart is Jared Gaithers, with two career starts.  Jason Brown appears to be a solid lineman, but he’s shifting to center this year.  Ben Grubbs, Marshall Yanda and Adam Terry make up the other projected starters on this underwhelming unit, with little depth behind them.  On paper, this offensive line is one of the worst in the league, although it has potential to develop into mediocrity.

 

The Ravens finished sixth in the NFL in yards allowed last year.  They were, once again, dominant against the run, allowing only 79 yards per game on the ground; 2.8 yards per carry, ranked #2 and #1 in the NFL in those two categories.  But their pass defense declined dramatically in 2007.  They sacked opposing quarterbacks 61 times in ’06, but only 32 times last year.  Meanwhile, both starting cornerbacks got hurt, without adequate replacements available, resulting in a pass defense ranked #30 in the crucial ‘yards per pass attempt’ category.

 

The Ravens still have an elite level defensive line, when healthy.  Nose tackle Kelly Gregg is a mammoth run stuffer, commanding double teams on every play.  Ends Trevor Pryce and Haloti Ngata are pro bowl caliber players, although Pryce missed eleven games with injury last year.  Both Gregg and Pryce are on the wrong side of 30, and the depth behind them is a clear talent drop-off.

 

Linebacker Ray Lewis, too, has struggled with injuries in recent years, entering his 13^th season in the NFL.  His leadership skills are still highly valued, even though he’s no longer making the type of impact plays that he did during his prime.  Terrell Suggs is the star of this unit, the Ravens all time leader in forced fumbles and third in franchise history in sacks.  While the Ravens linebacking corps is no longer feared around the league, this is still an above average unit in both talent and depth.

 

Ed Reed just might be the best safety in the league.  Third round rookie Tom Zbikowski (Notre Dame) will battle Dawan Landry for the other starting safety spot.  The question marks here come at cornerback, where both Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle are on the wrong side of 30 and coming off season ending injuries.  Baltimore traded for Fabian Washington (Oakland) as a nickel back, while special teams standout Frank Walker is expected to contribute as well.

 

Last year, Baltimore struggled against a slightly tougher than average schedule.  This year, like all the teams in the AFC North, the Ravens are up against one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.  AFC North teams face the AFC South and the NFC East out of division in 2008, and, without a shadow of a doubt, those are the two toughest divisions in all of football (at least on paper).  So, even with last place games against Miami and Oakland, the Ravens still face one of the ten toughest schedules in the league this fall.  The league certainly isn’t hyping Baltimore as a surprise or up-and-coming team, with only one Sunday or Monday Night TV appearance all year.

Overview - Most of the time, the Titans are not a pretty team to watch.  Their statistics are consistently below average in key categories.  But no head coach in the NFL has done a better job of coaxing wins out of close games than Jeff Fisher, as Tennessee has gone 13-4 SU in games decided by a touchdown or less since their dreadful 0-5 start back in 2006.  Tennessee went on to win eight of their final eleven games that year, improving to 10-6 last season while earning their first playoff berth since 2003.  13 of those 18 wins came by a TD or less.

 

Some of the credit for last year’s success can be placed on Jeff Fisher.  Some credit can be handed to quarterback Vince Young, a proven winner who appears to have the full confidence of his teammates.  Some credit must go to Tennessee’s unusual health, as the Titans lost an NFL low 18 starter games due to injury.  Some credit must go to a weak opposing schedule outside their division, with only two games against playoff teams (both losses) other than their AFC South foes.  And frankly, some credit must go to the lucky bounces that enable a mediocre squad to win 13 out of 17 games decided by a touchdown or less.

 

Offense - Vince Young threw nine touchdown passes last year to go along with his 17 interceptions.  He threw for only 2500 yards in his first full season as the starter, with a 71.1 quarterback rating.  Those are not pro bowl numbers by any stretch of the imagination.  After rushing for seven touchdowns as a rookie, Young rushed for only three last year, with his yards per carry average declining from 6.7 as a rookie to 4.2 in ’07. Still, Young is 17-11 as an NFL starting quarterback.  Kerry Collins is an above average backup.

 

LenDale White proved his toughness last year, playing in all 16 games and rushing for more than 1100 yards.  He does his best work between the tackles, a true power back in the Jerome Bettis mold.  The Titans were looking for some ‘lightning’ to complement White’s thunder in the draft, selecting speedster Chris Johnson out of East Carolina in the first round.  Chris Henry was a second rounder last year, but he had a horrible rookie season both on and off the field, demoted to third stringer on the depth chart.

 

Some of the blame for Vince Young’s poor statistics must be placed on the shoulders of his receiving corps.  The Titans lack a true #1 receiver, although their depth has improved from a season ago. Rookie Lavell Hawkins (Cal) has enjoyed a very strong camp, and former Titan Justin McCareins was signed as a free agent in the offseason (New York Jets), returning to the place where he had his best season back in 2003.  Justin Gage, Roydell Williams and Brandon Jones were mediocre at best last year.  Tight end Alge Crumpler was signed in free agency (Atlanta), giving the Titans a second solid pass catcher over the middle, joining established veteran Bo Scaife.

 

The Titans have enjoyed great stability on the offensive line over the years.  This year, however, they have a pair of new starting guards.  Free agent Jake Scott started all sixteen games with the Colts last year.  Center Kevin Mawae has been stellar throughout his career, but he’s 37 years old, now in his 15th season in the league.  The Titans have a pair of solid tackles in Michael Roos (48 straight starts at left tackle) and David Stewart (30 consecutive starts at right tackle).  Stewart underwent arthroscopic knee surgery last week, and may or may not be ready for the season opener, but the injury is not expected to linger.  Both tackles signed offseason contract extensions, ensuring stability at tackle for years to come.

 

Defense - The Titans defense was completely transformed last year.  In 2006, Tennessee finished dead last in the NFL, allowing 370 yards per game.  The primary culprit was an awful rush defense, allowing 145 rushing yards per game and 25 points per game.  Last year, Tennessee finished fifth in the league, allowing just 292 yards per game. The improvement against the run was equally dramatic, allowing only 92 rushing yards per contest, while their points allowed improved by nearly a touchdown, down to 18.6 ppg.

 

How did they do it?  It all starts up front.  Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth was an absolute monster in the middle, while defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch was awesome on the outside.  The tandem went to the pro bowl together, the best DT/DE combo in the league.  However, the Titans have big questions other than their two stars.  Free agent signee Jevon Kearse did very little in four forgettable seasons in Philadelphia.  Second rounder Jason Jones (Eastern Michigan) is being asked to contribute right away following the offseason departure of three key linemen who were all in the rotation a season ago.

 

The back seven defensively has some question marks as well.  Linebacker Keith Bulluck is the undisputed team leader on defense, while the other outside linebacker, Davis Thorton, is coming off his best year since 2003.  Middle linebacker Ryan Fowler has yet to prove that he can be an impact player, and linebacking depth is a question mark. 

 

In the secondary, the Titans have no Pac-Man Jones type impact player.  Safety Michael Griffin has star potential.  Every cornerback on the roster was a fifth round draft choice or lower.  Starter Nick Harper turns 33 this year, mediocre in his first year with the team last season.  The other cornerback starter, Cortland Finnegan, has transformed himself from a small college ‘project’ into a rock solid NFL starter.  Depth here is certainly a concern.

 

Schedule - The Titans faced a relatively easy schedule last year despite playing in one of the toughest divisions in football.  As described above, the Titans faced only two teams with winning records outside their division, losing both times.  They feasted on the weak, beating disappointing squads like the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Raiders, Chiefs and Jets, while catching Indy in Week 17 when the Colts were resting their starters.  The Titans schedule toughens considerably this year, one of the ten toughest as opposed to being one of the ten weakest last season.  Tennessee gets only one national TV appearance on Sunday or Monday Night Football.

Overview - Its official: the Texans have arrived!  The league has finally put Houston on the map, giving them a home game for Monday Night Football for the first time in team history.  Houston made huge strides last year under head coach Gary Kubiak’s second season, finishing 8-8, their best record in the six year history of the franchise.  They also enjoyed their first semblance of a home field advantage, finishing 6-2, the first time they’ve had a winning record at home.

 

It’s very hard to move up the pecking order in the AFC South.  The other three teams in this division all won at least ten games and earned a playoff berth last year.  Houston went 1-5 in their division and still finished .500 in ’08, a true testament to the talent that resides in the AFC South.  Even if the Texans stay healthier than they did last year, when they suffered numerous injury problems on both sides of the football, forcing Kubiak to use eleven different starting lineups on offense in 16 games, it’s still hard to project this team as a legitimate playoff contender.

 

Offense - Yards per play is a fairly good statistical measure of an offense’s capability, far better than points scored.  Last year, the Texans offense ranked fifth in the NFL in this category, behind only the Patriots, Cowboys, Packers and Colts, each of whom won at least twelve games.  Gary Kubiak designs good offenses, plain and simple, with a tremendous track record from his tenure as the offensive coordinator in Denver.  But the Texans -13 turnover margin (largely due to their defense’s inability to create takeaways) must improve for Houston to approach the 12+ win seasons from those other elite level clubs listed above.

 

Matt Schaub signed a fat six year contract to be the Texans starting quarterback prior to last season.  But Schaub couldn’t stay healthy, and backup Sage Rosenfels went 4-1 as a starter when he was injured, playing as well or better than the high priced Schaub.  Schaub comes into 2008 as the starter with a lot to prove.  That being said, between them, Schaub and Rosenfels completed more than 65% of their pass attempts last season, throwing for 3900 yards and 24 touchdowns.

 

The Texans suffered from depth problems at running back last year when Ahman Green couldn’t stay healthy.  This year, Houston brought in another running back with a history of injury problems, Chris Brown from Tennessee.  They drafted the explosive but undersized Steve Slaton out of West Virginia, a back who appears to be a perfect fit for this offense, even if he’s only expected to be a third down, ‘change-of-pace’ back as a rookie.

 

Andre Johnson is a legitimate difference maker for this offense, but he, too, has suffered from injury woes throughout his career.  Houston went 6-3 with Johnson in the lineup last year; just 2-5 without him.  There’s solid depth here.  Jacoby Jones, Kevin Walter and Andre Davis all had breakout seasons in 2007.  Tight ends are crucial in this offense.  Starter Owen Daniels is an emerging talent, catching 63 passes last season.

 

This offensive line has gradually been getting better in recent years.  They allowed an NFL worst 68 sacks in 2005; improved to 43 sacks allowed in 2006 and knocked it all the way down to 22 sacks allowed last year.  However, the running game was subpar in ’07, gaining less than 100 yards per game.

 

This year, the offensive line has three major upgrades from a season ago.  First and foremost, Kubiak hired offensive line guru Alex Gibbs as the ‘assistant head coach.  Gibbs is the zone blocking maestro, who worked with Kubiak in Denver.  Then Houston drafted their left tackle of the future, Duane Brown from Virginia Tech in the first round.  Lastly, they traded for former Broncos center Chris Myers, who started all 16 games in Denver last season.  Former first rounder Eric Winston has started 23 straight games at right tackle, and Chester Pitts has started 96 consecutive games at guard.  We can project that this offensive line will continue to improve.

 

Defense - The Texans were roundly criticized for passing on Reggie Bush with the #1 overall selection in 2005, drafting defensive end Mario Williams instead.  After a rough rookie season, Williams was much better than Bush last year, offering management some redemption.  In fact, over the last seven games of the season, Super Mario was awesome, blowing up the line of scrimmage regularly while notching ten sacks during that span.  Last year’s #1 Amobi Okoye showed signs of his potential and enjoyed a tremendous offseason.  Perhaps he’ll have the same type of breakout season in ’08 as Williams had in ’07.  The remainder of the defensive line has decent depth, but no impact players.

 

Linebacker DeMeco Ryans earned a pro bowl berth last year, the leader of the defense.  In his first two years in the NFL, no player in the league has more tackles than Ryans.  Free agent acquisition Roosevelt Colvin (New England) should help them on passing downs.  Marlon Greenwood has developed into a solid player on the outside.  This is a solid unit.

 

The Texans allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes against them last year.  They intercepted only eleven passes while allowing 25 touchdowns.  Opposing quarterbacks put up a 93.7 QB rating against them, and the unit doesn’t appear to be much better heading into 2008.  Their best cover cornerback, Dunta Robinson is still recovering from a torn ACL.  There is no timetable yet for his return, and he’s expected to start the season on the PUP list.  Free agent acquisition Jacques Reaves started 13 games for the Cowboys last year.  Second year pro Fred Bennett has taken the other starting slot in camp.  Third round draft choice Antwaun Moldin (Eastern Kentucky) is not expected to have a significant impact in his rookie year.  Veterans DeMarcus Faggins, Jamar Fletcher and Dexter Wynn are all fighting for roster spots.

 

Schedule - Houston faced one of the toughest slates in the NFL last year, but their strength of schedule in 2008 is middle of the pack, a real drop-off.  The Texans aren’t likely to start strong, facing three playoff teams from last year (Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Tennessee) on the road in the first four weeks.  After that rough stretch, however, the Texans might offer great value without a single road game in the month of October.  Remember, this team is 10-5 ATS at home in Kubiak’s first two seasons at the helm.

Overview - While the Colts, Patriots and Chargers remain the 900 pound gorillas in the AFC, Jacksonville lurks right behind them in the pecking order.  Make no mistake about it – this team is thinking ‘Super Bowl’.  Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter designed high octane attacks at the collegiate level at Boise State and Arizona State.  Last year, under his tutelage, the Jags ranked fourth in the AFC in points scored, behind only the three behemoths listed above.  Jacksonville lost defensive coordinator Mike Smith in the offseason when he accepted the Atlanta Falcons head coaching job.  New defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was stellar in this role in previous stints with the Redskins and Titans, at one point the highest paid assistant in the NFL.

Offense - After years of quarterback controversy, the Jaguars finally settled on David Garrard as the full time starter last year.  That move paid enormous dividends, as the Jags scored more points than they had in any previous year this decade.  Garrard’s leadership and his cool, confident demeanor on the field during crunch time were every bit as important as his stats.  The Jags went 9-3 with him as the starter, and Garrard threw for 2500 yards, completing 64 percent of his passes with an impressive 18-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.  There’s no arguing with a 102.2 quarterback rating.  Garrard signed a big fat $60 million dollar contract extension in the offseason, cementing his role in the Jaguars long term plans.  Cleo Lemon is a solid career backup behind him.

 

One preseason guide calls Fred Taylor the power back and Maurice Jones-Drew the speed back.  Another guide reverses those two designations.  The reality is that both backs have power AND speed; each capable of gaining tough yards up the middle or bursting through the hole and going the distance for a touchdown.  The Jaguars use them virtually interchangeably.  Between them, Jacksonville had the #2 rushing offense in the NFL last year.  Jones-Drew’s presence deserves at least some of the credit for the words ‘Fred Taylor’ and ‘injury prone’ no longer linked together by every pundit in the world.

 

The Jags spent big in free agency to upgrade at wide receiver.  The two big additions – Jerry Porter from Oakland and Troy Williamson from Minnesota – both have checkered pasts.  Porter has the potential to be a legitimate #1 receiver, while Williamson has the blazing speed to give the passing game a big play threat, although his hands aren’t very good and he’s never lived up to expectations.  Reggie Williams is a solid threat in the red zone, catching ten touchdowns last year.  Dennis Northcutt is an excellent fit as a slot receiver.  The Jags have a trio of quality tight ends.  On paper, this is the best receiving corps that the Jags have had in years.

 

The Jaguars' offensive line isn’t loaded with big name pro bowlers, but it’s clearly an underrated unit.  Tackles Khalif Barnes and Tony Pashos are rock solid, while center Brad Meester is well above average at his position.  Vincent Manuwai is the anchor of the line at right guard.

 

Defense - Gregg Williams likes to put all kinds of pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  That explains why the Jags traded up on draft day to bring in defensive end Derrick Harvey (Florida).  However, the Jags have been unable to agree to a contract with their top pick, and he’s still holding out as of this writing. 

 

Second round pass rush specialist Quentin Groves (Auburn) got his first NFL start this past weekend, but failed to show up in the box score.  Run stuffer extraordinaire John Henderson returns, paired with Rob Meier in the middle.  The Jags have good depth on the defensive line.  Stellar middle linebacker Mike Peterson is 32 and in a contract year, hoping for one more big payday.  Clint Ingram and Daryl Smith also start on this solid unit.

 

Jacksonville finished fourth in the NFL in interceptions last year, but they did some significant shuffling in their secondary in the offseason.  Free agent cornerback Drayton Florence started ten games with the Chargers last year, and should start alongside playmaker Rashean Mathis.  Strong safety Reggie Nelson is a star in the making, the team’s interception leader last year.  Following the offseason departure of Sammy Knight, converted cornerback Brian Williams will start at strong safety this fall.  Like the rest of the defense, this unit looks very good on paper.

 

Schedule - The Jags have been a fairly anonymous ballclub, playing in a small market as one of six NFL franchises never to reach a Super Bowl.  They’ll get a bit more national publicity this year with three TV games, including a pair in December as the playoff races reach their zenith.  The Jags won eleven games in the toughest division in the AFC last year, while facing the toughest out-of-division slate of any AFC South squad.  This year, the schedule maker has been a bit kinder, with the Jags slate of opponents the easiest in their division, not the toughest.

Overview - In the salary cap era, the Colts run of regular season success is virtually unprecedented.  Indianapolis has won at least 12 regular season games in each of the last five years.  They’ve made the playoffs six straight times; eight times in the last nine seasons.  While signs point towards this being the final year of Tony Dungy’s tremendous run in Indianapolis, continuity here is virtually assured with assistant head coach Jim Caldwell ready and able to step into Dungy’s shoes when he steps down.

 

The Colts have 20 of 22 starters back from last year’s squad, giving them great continuity from last year’s 12 win squad heading into 2008 as the Colts prepare to open their brand new Lucas Oil Stadium.  But Indy is not a deep team by any stretch of the imagination.  This team is in trouble if they suffer injuries at almost any position – quarterback, receiver, offensive line, defensive line, linebackers.  The effect of their top heavy salary cap structure, with the numerous established stars making the lion’s share of the money could come back to haunt them.

 

Offense - Peyton Manning has only known one offense since he arrived in the NFL in 1998.  There’s no other quarterback in the league that has enjoyed the luxury of a decade long run with only one offensive coordinator, the venerable Tom Moore.  Manning has been to eight pro bowls, and enjoyed eight 4000 yard passing seasons.  At 32 years old, only Brett Favre has more starting experience as an NFL starting quarterback than Manning. 

 

But this year, Manning has missed all of training camp while recovering from knee surgery.  Originally, the word out of Indianapolis was that Manning would definitely be ready for the start of the regular season, but rumors began surfacing this past week that Jim Sorgi could be the opening day starter, as big a drop-off as you can find between starter and backup in this league.

 

Running back Joseph Addai has struggled to stay healthy in his first two years in the league, but when he’s been on the field, he’s been dynamite.  Still, Indy was worried enough about his health to re-sign former Colt Dominic Rhodes after he was cut by the Raiders, while drafting former Michigan workhorse Mike Hart this past spring.  Kenton Keith was a solid backup last year as well, giving the Colts better depth at running back than they have at virtually any other position.

 

Hall-of-Fame receiver Marvin Harrison is 37 years old.  He missed eleven games last year, and is no longer the big play threat that he once was.  Reggie Wayne stepped into that big play role in ’07, earning a pro bowl berth, while last year’s #1 draft choice Anthony Gonzalez appears ready to step up his production in ’08. Tight end Dallas Clark is a premier level pass catcher. There is very little quality depth here behind the starters.

 

The Colts offensive line allowed only 23 sacks on 599 pass attempts last year.  Center Jeff Saturday earned a Pro Bowl berth for the third consecutive season.  Young tackle Tony Ugoh stepped right in to a starting role as a rookie and excelled, as did the perennially underrated Ryan Diem on the other side.  2008 second rounder Mike Pollack could earn a starting job at right guard this fall.  Again, there’s virtually no quality depth behind the starters here.

 

Defense - Defensive coordinator Ron Meeks covets speed, not size, for his version of the Tampa-2 defense.  This is not a defense that gives up many big plays, forcing their opponents to dink and dunk their way down the field without making mistakes.  It all starts with the Colts pass rush, as ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have combined for 89 sacks and 47 forced fumbles since 2003.  Freeney has suffered from injury problems, and hasn’t yet stepped foot on a football field this August, still recovering from last year’s season ending foot injury.  The Colts can get pushed around at the line of scrimmage with their undersized tackles. Guess what?  Depth is a problem here.

 

All three starters are back at linebacker, a unit that has no stars and no depth.  The secondary, however, is truly a tremendous unit when safety Bob Sanders is healthy.  Sanders, however, has missed all of training camp thus far coming off shoulder surgery.  The Colts have four excellent young cornerbacks, all in their third NFL season or less, led by Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson.  Last year, it was the secondary that was primarily responsible for the Colts registering the NFL’s best scoring defense – well, the secondary AND Peyton Manning rarely putting the defense in bad position due to turnovers.

 

Schedule - I can describe this schedule in one word: Brutal.  The Colts faced a middle-of-the-pack slate last year.  In 2008, it’s a very different story, as the Colts face the second toughest schedule in all of football.  All eight road games come against teams that are expected to be in the playoff chase.  To make matters even worse for a team with depth problems, their bye comes very early, in Week 4, giving Indy a 13 week stretch against top notch opponents without any sort of a break.

Overview - The San Diego Chargers have absolutely dominated the AFC West over the last two seasons, winning the division by five games in 2006 and four games last year.  They’ve gone 10-2 against their divisional rivals (both losses coming against the Chiefs) during that span.  With 20 of last years 22 starters returning, and both new projected starters being promoted from within, there’s little reason to think that the Chargers won’t roll to their third straight AFC West title in 2007. 

 

This team has great depth and continuity at every position as well as on Norv Turner’s coaching staff.  On paper, the Chargers are as good or better than any team in the NFL, even with a dozen players coming off surgery in the offseason.  One area of concern, however, lies in the stats.  The Chargers led the league with a whopping +24 turnover margin last year, and those types of numbers don’t tend to repeat themselves two years in a row.

 

Offense - Quarterback Philip Rivers is a leader and a winner, dating back to his collegiate days at NC State.  Rivers struggled at times over the first half of last season adapting to Norv Turner’s offense, throwing ten interceptions and only ten touchdown passes in his first nine games.   But he closed out the season with a nice flourish: 11 TD’s with only five picks over the Chargers final seven games.  Rivers is coming off ACL surgery, but he’s shown no lingering effects thusfar in preseason.  Clipboard holding Billy Volek is an above average backup.

 

Running back LaDainian Tomlinson has led the NFL in rushing for each of the last two years, the premier player in the NFL at his position.  This unit did suffer the free agency loss of quality backup Michael Turner and they cut aging blocking fullback extraordinaire Lorenzo Neal.  Yet the Chargers appear set, depth wise with Andrew Pinnock as the new starting fullback, Darren Sproles as a change of pace tailback, and rookies Jacob Hester (LSU, third round) and Marcus Thomas (UTEP, fifth round).

 

Tight end Antonio Gates is an elite level pass catcher; one of the best in the league at his position.  Chris Chambers made an enormous impact on the passing game after arriving midseason from the Dolphins last year, deserving at least some of the credit for Rivers second half turnaround.  Including three playoff games, Chambers had 51 catches, averaging just shy of 16 yards per reception.  Vincent Jackson emerged during the postseason, with 300 receiving yards in the playoffs.  Buster Davis was a first rounder last year, but had a limited impact in his rookie season.

 

All five starters are back on the offensive line, including pro bowlers left guard Kris Dielman and left tackle Marcus McNeill.  You could make an argument that center Nick Hardwick deserved a trip to Honolulu as well.  LJ Shelton, who started all 1