During the next few weeks I'm going to devote this column to coaching changes throughout the football landscape that I feel will provide an edge against the spread this season. In this week's article, I'll take an in-depth look at a couple of college football teams that figure to be either helped or hindered pointspread wise by their offseason coaching changes. With coaching changes, the variables change in the new coaches’ initial season, and each case needs to be examined and treated on an individual basis. With that in mind, let's take a look at a pair of college football teams that just might be able to spring a few extra winners for us this season.

Rice
The Owls will now undergo the same type of drastic system switch that Army went through a few years back with Todd Berry and Nebraska went through with Bill Callahan. Gone is Ken Hatfield's triple option offensive scheme, which had Rice near the top of the national team per game rushing average on an annual basis during his tenure, and in is new head coach Todd Graham's "spread" passing attack. This is a schematic change that just multiplies the possibilities for offensive failures in its first year. The returning offensive personnel on hand was all recruited for the triple option run-dominated system, and now they will be asked to execute a pass-happy scheme. The Owls will likely to take their lumps right out of the gate as they go through this transition phase much the way Army and Nebraska did in recent editions. The offensive line must learn pass-protection schemes, running backs and receivers must run precise routes and sophomore quarterback Chase Clement must now make quick, instinctive and correct reads on his throws. All three of these things must be done in unison against defensive schemes that know Rice is vulnerable at this stage. Every defensive coordinator who plans for Rice is sure to use a plethora of blitz packages and defenses intended to pressure, hurry, confuse and ultimately force the unsure Owls into mistakes. New offensive coordinator Major Applewhite will have his hands full with this project after having little success getting any positive progression out of the quarterbacks he coached at Syracuse last year.

The defense returns seven starters. The unit will continue the 3-3-5 defense it started playing midway through last season under new defensive coordinator Paul Randolph. Almost every preseason publication seems to believe that the defense can only improve after last year’s terrible numbers. Rice gave up 40.6 points per game, 212 rushing yards on 5.4 per carry and 243 passing yards on 65.5 percent completions in 2005. I believe they may just match those numbers again due to pressure put on them by the offense. The Owls no longer have a rushing system that can churn out yards, eat up clock and give their small and thin defense a rest. Sustained drives will now be replaced by a host of three and outs  that take no time off the clock. I feel Rice will wear down defensively in every game, especially in the second half of the season. I wouldn't expect much improvement on Rice's defensive statistics this season. This team might improve in the future, but these changes are just too radical for the current personnel. I'll look to capitalize on the Owls’ coaching change by playing against them at select times this season.   

Middle Tennessee State
This is a situation I like for the upcoming season. Middle Tennessee State underachieved last season with perhaps the best personnel in the conference. The Blue Raiders’ disappointing 4-7 season ultimately cost head coach Andy McCollum his job. So out with the old regime (which by the way is the only one the Blue Raiders have known since their move to Division I-A) and in with the new. Rick Stockstill provides a fresh perspective, and he has got a long history of coaching under some of the games’ top head men. He has imported G.A. Mangus to run the offense. The offense returns nine players including quarterback Clint Marks and 80 percent of last year's offensive line. Stockstill will not disrupt the multiple-set scheme employed offensively by the Blue Raiders. But he will put his subtle stamp on the offense by placing some extra emphasis on the running game. This decision figures to keep Middle Tennessee State cohesive, and it should bring out largely improved offensive numbers from a season ago as the experience of this unit comes through. The Blue Raiders don't figure to be priced much differently by the linemakers than they were a year ago since public perception sees them middle-of-the-road team in the Sun Belt Conference. This perception should give added value to the Blue Raiders, especially with the expected point production increase.

On defense, there are some holes to fill, but there's more experience here than the numbers indicate. Eight of this season's starters have started in the past, and the overall talent appears to be closer to the level of the stellar 2005 group. New defensive coordinator Manny Diaz spent the past six seasons coaching under Chuck Amato at North Carolina State. Like the offense, head coach Stockstill will leave the existing 4-3 system in place and only tinker with it slightly. Defensive coordinator Diaz emphasizes speed in the back seven, so Middle Tennessee State has inserted defensive back-type speed into their linebacking corps. With some key players now back on the field after injuries last year, the Blue Raiders look to be as strong as any defense in the conference.

This team appears to have value both offensively and defensively. They have a returning kicker in senior Colby Smith who hit 15 of 17 last year. And, they have a new head coach who didn't enter with radical system changes that would disrupt this veteran team. Stockstill was wise to recognize the talent in place in Murfreesboro, Tenn. It is not always prudent to start fresh when a team has simply underachieved from the previous year. I believe Middle Tennessee State will greatly make up for last season's disappointing performance and generate profits in 2006.