I am going to take a look at an NCAA football game on this Thursday's card between the Boston College Golden Eagles and the Central Michigan Chippewas.

We’re now less than 48 hours away from the opening of the 2006 college football season and my endless preparation goes on. I for one am very excited to embark on another winning football campaign and week #1 seems to present its share of ticket cashing opportunities. With a solid 60 percent NFL preseason and initial 20* winner already under my belt, the first week of college games is the present task. In this blog, I’ll thoroughly analyze the Boston College vs. Central Michigan game from my handicapping perspective and give everyone a sample of my thought process. You’ll find a fundamental style with some situational and past history mixed into this particular handicap. I always start fundamentally and then employ a host of other considerations. This one kicks off Thursday at 6 ET/3 PT. Here we go, football handicapping season is officially underway.  

Boston College (-11 1/2) @ Central Michigan O/U 42

The biggest question here is can CMU run the ball against the BC defense? If the answer becomes yes and CMU running back Onterrio Sneed finds consistent running room behind an experienced offensive line, then this figures to be a home dog cover. Head coach Brian Kelly wants to run wide on BC and away from their massive set of defensive tackles, so the Eagles perimeter defenders and ability to string plays out will be critical. Rushing success can also take a burden off new starting quarterback Brian Brunner. The sophomore signal caller needs the help of the ground game because if Brunner is forced to throw against a very talented BC secondary, it could be a long night. Offensive balance, led by the ground game is crucial for the CMU. The Chippewas' offensive parts must do its job because while Brunner is good, he’s no former standout Kent Smith at this point in time.

For Boston College , they’ve got a rushing attack strong enough to penetrate the Central Michigan run defense despite CMU allowing just 3.2 yards per carry last season. If they can establish the run then veteran QB Matt Ryan should be able to find some passing lanes off of a vulnerable Chippewas secondary. After allowing 61 percent pass completions last season, Central will have a pair of redshirt freshman newcomers in the defensive backfield, so things aren’t likely to be any better. Eagles head coach Tom O’Brien may opt to throw first here and test CMU’s weakness in the pass defense department in order to take away some of their aggression against the run. The question for Boston College becomes, is their receiving corps good enough to come right out and fully exploit Central’s sore spot? Gone are 88 receptions compiled by wideouts Will Blackmon and Larry Lester. Top returning wide receiver Tony Gonzalez is an experienced senior who can stretch the field, but the complement to him is sophomore Brandon Robinson. He’s a highly touted player, but only caught seven passes last season, so his play Thursday night will be key. If the passing game works in the intermediate to long range game (BC is always a good short passing team, especially with the running backs), Central Michigan ’s defense could be dissected. Defensively, redshirt freshman defensive end Austin Giles is the man likely to be tested as he now owns the position held by graduated pass rush specialist Mattias Kiwanuka. The defensive line is filled with youth (three freshmen and a sophomore on the second unit) which will probably put BC at risk in some spots during this game. Having sophomore DE Jim Ramella ruled out for the season due to a shoulder injury didn’t help the Eagles in an already thin area.  

Both offenses are likely to hammer away at the particular defensive weaknesses, but which will have the most success? Central Michigan seems to believe they can find running room on the outside, but although Boston College has never been known for their speed, they’re not likely to be outrun by a middle-tier MAC team. Eagles QB Matt Ryan won’t get hit here unless CMU commits to constant blitzes, which in turn would leave an already shaky secondary even more suspect. Special teams are both solid but BC is breaking in a new long snapper which always has the potential to be troublesome. The atmosphere in Mount Pleasant will be electric as ESPN’s camera’s shine on their Chippewas and while CMU may ride the emotional wave to an early lead, do they really have the talent and depth to play four solid quarters. Catching 11.5 they may not have too.

The things Central does best (run the football and stop the run), Boston College does even better, and they’ve got a QB who has started in some very tough venues. Last season, O’Brien led his team to Provo, Utah as they clocked BYU 20-3. Is this Central Michigan team as good as last year’s BYU team and is this stadium as tough? Those questions have to be addressed. If you conclude yes, then you’re on CMU. If you’re answer is no, then you might want to look the Eagles way. I’m not going to play this game, but I do feel that if Boston College comes out throwing and catches CMU off guard, they could win by 17. I have to believe O’Brien will have his team well prepared with so much time to get ready. Yes, Clemson is on deck, but they’ll have nine days in between. My concern would be the reserve defensive linemen of Boston College and the fact that Central’s offense can capitalize on the inexperience enough to be in position for a cover. If they make it to 17 points, they probably will cash tickets. Nice game to kick off the 2006 College Football TV season with and I’ll be especially interested in BC’s passing game, their reserve defensive linemen, and the QB play of Central Michigan ’s Brian Brunner.