With my early summer NFL Power Ratings for the 2008 season now set, we can look at and compare the opening week numbers. In this blog entry, I’ll list the current line on each game for week #1 of the NFL season and my power ratings line. Remember, the months of July and August are likely to see changes made to some of the power ratings but for those who like to forecast or even place wagers right now, here’s a look at NFL week #1. I’ll look at four games each day starting today and ending on Thursday. I’ll start at the top of the card and go in rotation order so with that in mind, games nine through twelve are on tap for today so let's pick it up with the NFC South clash between Tampa Bay and New Orleans.    

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Current Line: New Orleans -3

RV Power Ratings: New Orleans -1

Quick Take: This pointspread indicates that the Saints have been rewarded for their aggressive off season moves to bolster their defense. The situation of having an opening day home atmosphere in a divisional game probably got the Saints some line consideration too. With four veteran additions to that side of the ball plus first round defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis out of USC, the belief is that New Orleans has improved. When you sift through everything, the Saints probably fortified their defensive depth more than anything as only Jonathan Vilma and Ellis are starting material. The acquisitions do project positively which helps but I could not upgrade this team's power rating because the offense stayed put. Last season, this unit was exposed as one that cannot stretch the field and QB Drew Brees was forced to dink and dunk exclusively. Is Robert Meacham the answer? With RB Deuce McAlister’s return as an impact player still very much up in the air, Reggie Bush’s production will continue to suffer. Tampa’s stout defense held the Saints to 37 total points en-route to a sweep of their games last year and that defensive group returns just about in tact. The Bucs offense is still a concern but the offensive line is getting progressively better which will make them more potent as the season goes on. Tampa Bay basically starts this season as the same team they were at the end of last season so no power rating adjustment was made.         

St. Louis at Philadelphia

Current Line: Philadelphia -7

RV Power Ratings: Philadelphia -8

Quick Take: I raised the Rams power rating more than any team in the NFL to start the season because I believe they are going to be that much improved. With four full points added to last season’s finishing number and a status quo approach taken toward the Eagles, I still am a point higher on the Philadelphia side of this game. Now, I have not done it yet because it’s a current unknown, but if Eagles QB Donovan McNabb’s shoulder turns out to be a problem heading into the season then Philly will be downgraded. Perhaps the odds makers have already shaved a point off of this game due to McNabb's reported problems throwing during this offseason and that’s where our pointspread difference is. In any case, if this game were played in the final week of the 2007 season just seven months ago, Philadelphia would have been a 12 point choice. The fact that they opened as only seven shows that the odds makers really like St. Louis as an improved team. They’ve got some things to sift through and their offensive line may not be ready this quickly to handle Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson’s love for blitzes, but St. Louis is going to be a pointspread producer this season. The McNabb issue is critical to this game and if you think there’s a shot he won’t be healthy, take the +7 now before it disappears. If he plays, this line will remain as is.    

Dallas at Cleveland

Current Line: Dallas -3

RV Power Ratings: Dallas -2

Quick Take: I know, I know, I know, the first glance you take at this just screams Wow! Has Cleveland really come this far to where they are now just +3 at home versus what many believe is to be this year’s NFC Super Bowl rep? That’s a question you’ve got to answer for yourself but certainly HC Romeo Crennell’s Browns now have the firm respect of the oddsmakers. Cleveland may have made the best defensive free agent acquisitions when they hauled in the front line tandem of ex-Lions DT Shaun Rogers and ex-Packers DE Corey Williams. If these guys adapt right out of the chute and the secondary finds a way to improve after losing their top CB Leigh Bodden, then they can not only cover this number but win this game straight up. Those however are tall tasks and the Browns probably wish this game was played in October to give them some time. I do think their personnel moves were wise and I raised them a half a point to start the year. Dallas meanwhile is loaded everywhere and their secondary could provide a lot of resistance to the Browns explosive passing game. Dallas ended 2007 with one of the three highest power ratings in the NFL and I jumped that up a half a point. Their cohesiveness and experience warrant that.

Carolina at San Diego

Current Line: San Diego -9.5

RV Power Ratings: San Diego -13.5

Quick Take: Carolina does get QB Jake Delhomme back from injury to start this season after a carousel of misfits tried to fill the void last year and they’ve made some nice improvements to every component of their offense. Because of that, I raised their power rating a full point to start the season. I fully expect them to be much more competitive in the NFC South this season but in week #1 they’ll have revamped offensive and defensive lines along with a sizeable question mark where applying quarterback pressure is concerned. The projected starting units in those areas figure to provide a nice upgrade but they need playing time together in order to mesh before they can reach their potential. San Diego on the other hand is a loaded club with few questions and their eye set on the Super Bowl which they’ve developed a real hunger for. Backup running back, lead blocking fullback are the only real questions for this team and I raised them one point in the power ratings making them the third highest rated team in the league. The fundamental mismatches in the trenches here are enormous and this is a line where I feel the number currently being hung is way off.

With my early summer NFL Power Ratings for the 2008 season now set, we can look at and compare the opening week numbers. In this blog entry, I’ll list the current line on each game for week #1 of the NFL season and my power ratings line. Remember, the months of July and August are likely to see changes made to some of the power ratings but for those who like to forecast or even place wagers right now, here’s a look at NFL week #1. I’ll look at four games each day starting today and ending on Thursday. I’ll start at the top of the card and go in rotation order so with that in mind, games five through eight are on tap for today so let's pick it up with the Houston-Pittsburgh contest.  

Houston at Pittsburgh

Current Line: Pittsburgh -7

RV Power Ratings: Pittsburgh -7

Quick Take: My power ratings are in total agreement here with the line currently offered to us. The Steelers offseason left them with basically the same set of strengths and weaknesses as last season and I did not change their 2007 season ending rating. The loss of perennial Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca to free agency (Jets) hurts the offensive line but the Steelers figure to offset that concern with an improved pass rush that has a chance to terrorize opponents in defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau’s blitz happy scheme. The explosive and very diverse passing game could really hurt the Texans weakened secondary in this one. For Houston , their power rating remains status quo as well. They made a nice leap last season raising their number four points over where it ended in 2006 and they head into this year in a holding pattern waiting to make their next jump. The running game (offensive line guru Alex Gibbs was brought in to help) and secondary remain the concerns and right now they seem to be as good as they were at the close of last season.    

Jacksonville at Tennessee

Current Line: Jacksonville -3

RV Power Ratings: Jacksonville -2

Quick Take: Another contest where the numbers being compared are very similar. Again, I think the extra point the odds makers have Jacksonville favored by is somewhat due to offseason hype and the fact that the majority of the public is buying into it. There’s no doubt the Jaguars have been aggressive in attempting to improve their passing game which grew by leaps and bounds under QB David Garrard last season. It’s questionable to me how much first round draft pick Derrick Harvey (Florida DE) will help the pass rush in week #1but in time, he and Auburn OLB Quentin Groves figure to establish themselves. I kept Jacksonville’s power rating to start this season exactly the same as it was after their playoff loss to New England mainly because I feel the offense is more dynamic but the defensive line begins ’08 a hare more vulnerable. I also noted the defensive system change under new DC Gregg Williams which will need some real game familiarity for both Williams and his players before it can really show its advantages. As always, the Titans seem to be a tad underrated by many. Some of that is attributed to the poor draft grades many experts gave them and some is due to losses on each side of the line. DE’s Travis LaBoy and Antwan Odom are more of a concern than that of OG Jacob Bell in my mind but overall, I don’t feel they’ve lost all that much. This is still a very physical team and I left their power rating alone.                         

Detroit at Atlanta

Current Line: Detroit -1

RV Power Ratings: Atlanta -1

Quick Take: A difference in favorites here between my power ratings and the current pointspread. Remember, the line makers job is not only to formulate an accurate number based on the teams and the situation, but they also have to anticipate which side the bettors are going to react to. Our job on this side of the counter is to accurately project when the majority opinion is wrong and capitalize on value if line is padded in the wrong direction. Sticking with the common theme here, Atlanta was likely made a home dog because of the consensus media driven assessment that Atlanta is the league’s worst team. I have trouble believing that they are any worse than the quitting bunch who closed out last season so I have them rated exactly the same. If nothing else, there will be a new sense of pride and desire here which will equal to 60 full minutes of playing hard. There are some personnel changes and some inexperience is being inserted but when you look at the big picture, this team may even be better right now than it was last December. The Lions are under going a radical offensive change as they switch from a high octane passing system to a punishing, grind it out rushing style. It’s questionable whether they have the parts to make that happen right away. They also lost some very key defensive components that weren’t completely replaced so they should start the year a shade weaker on that side of the ball. I lowered the Lions power rating a full point to start the year.     

Seattle at Buffalo

Current Line: Buffalo PK

RV Power Ratings: Buffalo -0.5

Quick Take: Virtually even in our opinions here which to me signals the mutual concern over what’s now becoming a very limited Seattle receiving corps. Head Coach Mike Holmgren’s “west coast” offense has zero proven vertical ability to start the year since WR Deion Branch will be sidelined with his knee injury and WR D.J. Hackett changed uniforms ( Carolina ). Defenses figure to close in on the line of scrimmage against this team which may also hinder the ground game led now by ex-Dallas Cowboy Julius Jones. Defensively, the Seahawks should be very strong across all three levels. I think we’re going to see a transformation of this team which will now be anchored by the defense. I view the decrease in offense as a problem and I dropped the Seahawks power rating one point. Buffalo is a team I view with immediate upside and I heightened their power rating by 2 ½ points. The definitive move to Trent Edwards as the team’s starting QB, the return of the multiple defensive backfield parts that were all on the injured list almost immediately last season and the addition of Marcus Stroud to the front seven has me high on this team. The feelings on these teams looks to be shared by myself and the odds makers.

With my early summer NFL Power Ratings for the 2008 season now set, we can look at and compare the opening week numbers. In this blog entry, I’ll list the current line on each game for week #1 of the NFL season and my power ratings line. Remember, the months of July and August are likely to see changes made to some of the power ratings but for those who like to forecast or even place wagers right now, here’s a look at NFL week #1. I’ll look at four games each day starting today and ending on Thursday. I’ll start at the top of the card and go in rotation order so with that in mind, the Thursday night season opener between NFC East rivals Washington and New York is up first.  

Washington at New York Giants  

Current Line: New York -4

RV Power Ratings: New York -6

Quick Take: It seems as if the odds makers have dropped the defending Super Bowl Champs season ending rating. Maybe the assessment of lowering the Giants is due to the free agent losses they incurred during the off season or perhaps they feel the Giants 2007 ultimate accomplishment is just not indicative of the overall talent on this team. In any case, I left each of these teams ratings exactly where they were at end of the ’07 season seeing no real personnel loss or gain by either that would warrant a change. 

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Current Line: Baltimore -1

RV Power Ratings: Cincinnati -2

Quick Take: The odds makers obviously played to the negative national media attention Cincinnati has drawn this off season from the Chad Johnson situation. There was an obvious shaving of the true number by those on the other side of the counter as they installed Baltimore as the slim favorite likely anticipating the public to be anti-Cincinnati. The truth of the matter is, the Bengals figure to be at least the same as they were at the close of 2007 and probably a shade better because of lesser publicized positives. The linebacking corps is healthier and improved, ditto for the offensive line, and they now have a pass catching threat at tight end. As for Baltimore , the same broken down offense now without retired stud left tackle Jonathan Ogden is going through a system change. I can’t believe the line makers would have upgraded their perception of the Ravens so this line is really media and public opinion driven. I have each of these teams carrying the same power rating they concluded the 2007 season with as I saw nothing impactful enough to change. I will say however that my gut feeling was to spike Cincy up a half point or so because their personnel level is a bit improved. Even though this is Baltimore ’s home opener, the Bengals provide some value at the current price.

New York Jets at Miami

Current Line: New York Jets -2.5

RV Power Ratings: New York Jets -3.5

Quick Take: Interesting difference here because the number offered to us is shaded toward the short side of the ever popular -3 while my power ratings place it on the high. Sorry guys, you can’t middle your off shore and the power ratings but it could be worth it to take a flyer on the Jets -2.5 right now with the hope that by the time the game comes, Miami is +3.5 or better. The number placed by odds makers indicates to me a significant favoritism toward the Dolphins. The Jets made a host of positive off season personnel moves while Miami is in a complete re-evaluation process. Having Bill Parcells run the show is all well and good and it may even bring improvement as the season wares on but the amount of experimentation and real game system learning that will be taking place in week one has them significantly behind the Jets. Again, big name attached to a lot of hype equals a value laden point spread toward the other side.

Kansas City at New England

Current Line: New England -14.5

RV Power Ratings: New England -18

Quick Take: There no question in my mind that this price should climb once we get to late August. As it stands, the again determined Patriots appear to be a bargain as they’re still the same dominating offense and exceptional defensive front seven. Secondary departues are a concern but KC is not likely to light anyone up through the air. The Chiefs may be the beneficiary of some rosy forecasts based off their impressive draft class but it’s going to take some time to gel. The trade of pass rush specialist Jared Allen hurts them in this contest as does their starting cornerback tandem of “long in the tooth” Patrick Surtain and rookie Brandon Flowers. Having Larry Johnson back and healthy certainly helps, but this is a very tough defense to run against. I even downgraded the Patriots power rating by a point because of the uncertainty in the secondary and there’s still a lot of room here to play the Pats. Seems the folks who make the line really lifted KC up and pushed NE down a bit too much each way.

Arizona – Since the beginning of May, the Diamondbacks have played 51 games and been held to 4 runs or less 40 times (78.4%). This offense has been beyond abysmal for two months now and the starting pitching is beginning to show cracks as they’ve thrown 6 quality starts in the teams last 16 games.

Atlanta – In their last 25 games, Braves starting pitchers have recorded just 5 wins. They are 5-9 with 11 no decisions and have only posted 13 quality starts (52%). In the 12 home games during this span, Atlanta starters have 2 wins in 12 starts and a quality start percentage of 41.6%. The starting pitching along with the offense are combining to put their mediocre relief in position to decide far to many games.

Chicago Cubs – Despite Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster being the perceived aces of the Cubs staff, the team has gone 9-1 in the last 10 games started by the duo of Jason Marquis & Ted Lilly.   

Cincinnati – The demise of the Reds offense has been brutally evident in their past 21 games. During this recent span, Cincinnati has hit .250 or worse in 17 of the games (80.9%). They’ve scored 4 runs or les in 16 of those games.

Colorado – Talk about a correlating parlay, since April 23rd the Rockies have won 23 games and 19 of those have gone under the total (82.6%).  

Florida – High run production has been prevalent in Marlins games for an extended period of time now. Florida is on a current 22-6-2 OVER the total run in their last 30 games overall and they are 18-4-3 OVER in their last 25 road games.             

Houston – The Astros road totals have gone the exact opposite way of Florida’s lately as Manager Cecil Cooper’s club is 13-4 (76.5%) under the total in their last 17 away from home. In those 17 games, Houston ’s powerful lineup has managed to score just 49 runs (2.89 per game).  

Los Angeles – Outside of right handers Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley, Dodgers starters have taken the hill 12 times this month and the team is 3-9 in those. Only four times in those 12 games have LA’s starters gone six innings.

Milwaukee – In their now 20-7 tear which started back on May 26th, the Brewers bullpen has made a remarkable turnaround. In this stretch, the relievers have recorded 12 saves, 13 holds and three wins while blowing just two saves and losing twice. In the 31 games prior to that, Milwaukee blew five saves and lost 9 games.

Philadelphia – Philadelphia has now gone UNDER the total in 16 of their last 20 games The Phils are also just 11-15 against teams with better .500 records as opposed to 31-21 when facing sub .500 teams.     

Pittsburgh – Pirates games have now totaled 10 or more runs in 10 of their last 15 games.

San Diego – After a string where the Padres played six one run games in seven outings, they have now been involved in just one over their last 15 contests.  

San Francisco – Giants lefty Jonathan Sanchez has been sensational since mid May throwing seven quality starts in his eight outings. If you subtract the one clunker versus Colorado, Sanchez’ other seven starts show an overall ERA of 2.27, WHIP of 1.24 with 45 strikeouts and only two home runs allowed in those 47 2/3 innings. 

Washington – For three consecutive weeks now, the Nationals bullpen has thrown 400+ pitches. They are the only team to do that all season.

 

Immediate reactions can sometimes be over reactions so after attending this year’s NFL Draft and walking out with an abundance of initial feelings, I sat down the past few weeks and sorted everything out. After total review, I came up with these rankings, gradings, feelings or whatever you want to call them. In this series of eight NFL Draft blog entries I’ll rank the teams inside their own division from first to last as to how I feel they did with their selections.   

AFC WEST

1) Kansas City Chiefs – It’s almost universally been agreed upon that Kansas City had the best draft this year. I’d have to line up in that camp as well since KC was able to put together a string of six superb selections in the first three rounds. Their first round fortune fell into their laps but credit the Chiefs for not allowing that fortune to disappear before they latched onto it. Glenn Dorsey out of LSU who some believe was the best player available, somehow made it through the first four selections and then became a starting defensive tackle for Kansas City.  Then the good fortune continued as Virginia offensive guard Branden Albert who was the player almost everyone thought KC would select with the fifth overall selection, remained on the board halfway through round one. The Chiefs swung a trade at #15 with the Detroit Lions and voila, within two and a half hours they had secured pillars to fortify their offensive and defensive lines. With a pair of studs immediately penciled in at starting positions, Kansas City went to work on getting even more top flight help and they got even richer in rounds two and three. Cornerback Brandon Flowers from Virginia Tech, running back Jamaal Charles out of Texas, Brad Cottam a talented tight end from Tennessee and hard hitting safety DeJuan Morgan out of North Carolina State were the four choices made in those rounds. It’s unbelievable when you stop and assess each of these players and realize that it is very possible that Kansas City may have acquired six starters with their first six picks. They all may not start from day one, but by the beginning of the 2010 season we may see all six on first string units. Let’s back track a hair and just look at the upside of these players and why there has been and still is so much hype and excitement surrounding the Chiefs 2008 draft class.

Glenn Dorsey is a legitimate force and will be an anchor of the Kansas City defensive front right away. Dorsey does it all against the run as he possesses the bulk and strength to stuff rushing attacks inside and he’s got the lateral movement to pursue and chase runners down on the perimeter. While Dorsey cannot fill the void in number of quarterback sacks that was left behind when KC traded defensive end Jared Allen, the LSU draftee is an excellent penetrator from the inside and may demand double teams very early in his NFL career which will open up sack opportunities for his teammates. Dorsey is arguably the best defensive player in this year’s draft. With Dorsey immediately filling a need on the defensive front, Branden Albert will do the same for a rapidly depleted Chiefs offensive line. What was the teams trademark just two short years ago now bears zero resemblance of the powerful drive blocking front that had stalwarts Willie Roaf and Will Shields. However, adding Albert into the mix with center Brian Waters and tackle Damion McIntosh suddenly gives this team a trio of big and physical linemen. Albert’s agility had the majority of NFL personnel departments convinced that he can become a blind side tackle in this league and that’s exactly where KC will attempt to play him. His versatility makes it a no brainer that he’ll start somewhere on the line and having played under Al Groh at Virginia leads me to believe that Albert is well prepared to take on a starting tackle role right away.

Brandon Flowers has a chance to start on one of the corners for KC immediately because the Chiefs lack for talent at that position. Simply stated, Flowers is a well rounded playmaking corner who has that physical, in your face Virginia Tech style while still being an excellent cover man. He broke up 27 passes the past two seasons and recorded eight interceptions. At the very least, he’ll be the team's nickel corner this season but he’s got those head coach Herm Edwards type traits that lead me to believe he’ll become a starter at some point.

Kansas City is another team following the now extremely trendy “thunder & lightning” backfield setup as evidenced by their selection of Texas speedster Jamaal Charles. Charles can instantly become the electricity to compliment Pro Bowler Larry Johnson’s power. Charles' 49 receptions over the last three years at Austin indicate he’s got receiving skills and when you combine his dynamic, game changing abilities with that of Johnson, tight end Tony Gonzalez and second year standout wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, KC finally has multiple offensive threats.

6’8” 270 pound Tennessee tight end Brad Cottam is somewhat freakish because his physical presence leads you to believe that he’s purely a blocking tight end, but he can be a pass catching threat as well. Had his senior season not been basically lost to injury, Cottam would’ve had more impressive reception numbers. He will learn from the best as he plays behind Tony Gonzalez which is a huge asset. Look for him to see time in his rookie season in two tight end sets and don’t be surprised in a couple of years if he’s the Chiefs starter.

The choice of DeJuan Morgan at #82 overall I thought was a steal for this particular club because they have a need for a playmaker at safety and Morgan is a guy who just disrupts things. He made 97 tackles for the Wolfpack last season and it’s an intangible that’s hard to explain but when I saw him play last year, he had a certain defensive presence about him that I feel is going to make him successful at this level. There’s a great chance that he and Flowers will be fixtures in the secondary for a lot of years.

I also look for Clemson offensive tackle Barry Richardson who was chosen in the sixth round to surprise and become a backup at the position this year. In all, this was a great draft on paper and it has the potential to be great on the field as well.     

2) Denver – I’ll give the Broncos the nod for second in the division over Oakland based on volume. Denver acquired more players that figure to remain on the team and contribute more than the Raiders selection of game changing running back Darren McFadden. For the Broncos, offensive tackle Ryan Clady out of Boise State was a terrific first round choice. Clady should be able to step into the starting left tackle role and barring injury, be there for the next 10 years. He’s fully adept at run blocking and pass protection and after seeing his college career, I feel he’ll become a Pro Bowl tackle on the blind side.

Eddie Royal is a speedster who like other Virginia Tech receivers the past couple of years underachieved in college. However, this lack of production is a direct reflection of the quarterbacks Royal and his mates played with and I see a huge upside for this VT alum now that he’s got Broncos QB Jay Cutler throwing to him. Royal is a game breaker who can make plays in any area of the field and expect Denver to use him not only in their vertical routes but in their quick hitting ones as well. Royal also brings electric kick return abilities to the table which Denver drastically needs and will allow him to exhibit right away.

Denver went to the MAC for their next pair of selections and they may have hit paydirt with their fourth rounder Jack Williams who was a three year starter at cornerback for Kent State. While the Golden Flashes are not a team that makes a lot of television appearances, the statistical numbers posted by Williams are very impressive and scouts across the league raved about his athletic and playmaking ability. 245 career tackles, 25 passes broken up and 13 interceptions over a three year span are huge numbers. He’s fast and physical and should fit perfectly as a nickel corner behind starters Champ Bailey and Dre Bly. His 5’9” height is the only drawback and the only reason why he wasn’t taken until the 4th round. With all the knowledge he can gain from Bailey and Bly, don’t be surprised if Williams becomes a very successful starter here in a couple of years.

The wild card in this draft for the Broncos is seventh rounder Josh Barrett, a safety out of Arizona State . Barrett was rated by many as one of the top five safeties in the draft but he tumbled all the way to the seventh round because of on field character issues which got him benched as a senior. His junior year saw him record 82 tackles and his football ability is unquestionably good enough to land him as a starter in this league. His maturity level and desire are the concerns but in this veteran secondary with John Lynch as the leader, I think Barrett will “shape up” and become one of this draft's absolute steals.         

3) Oakland – Even with a stable of pretty good running backs they could’ve gone into this season with and even with the three year, 12 million dollar deal they gave to Justin Fargas in February to be their #1 RB, Oakland still made the correct decision when they chose Darren McFadden. I don’t think it will be long before the former Arkansas Razorback takes over as the Raiders dominant back and gives them the versatile explosiveness that Fargas just doesn’t have. As a breakaway threat rushing and receiving, he’ll be a great security blanket for QB JaMarcus Russell. The fact that he can run inside or out makes him far more than a gimmick back and defenses will find Oakland play calling to be very unpredictable when McFadden is on the field. Love the choice here at #4 as none of the other players available would’ve helped the Raiders as much as McFadden will.

Aside from McFadden, Oakland’s draft was minimal in both number of picks and helpfulness. Among the projects and experiments they drafted is fourth round cornerback Tyvon Branch out of Connecticut. His excessive speed (4.31) along with his hitting ability (230 career tackles) seem to make him best suited in the NFL for the strong safety position. Oakland could use this season to transition him from CB to SS but even then, he comes into a loaded secondary where  there doesn’t figure to be much playing time the next couple of seasons. WR Arman Shields from Richmond (fourth round) and DE Trevor Scott out of Buffalo (fifth round) are players who play need positions for the Raiders but neither has the resume that leads anyone to believe that they’ll contribute this year or next. They’re both likely to end up on special teams. I still don’t understand why Oakland selected Shields who had a knee injury last season rather than Cal’s LaVelle Hawkins who showed last season that he could be the “go to” receiver in a BCS conference. This entire draft outside of McFadden seemed like a reach to me (they even traded up to get Branch) but then again, having the stud RB will make the Raiders better this year.        

4) San Diego – They didn’t need anything except for depth and they came away with some at key spots. In first round cornerback Antoine Cason, San Diego got a player with starter’s ability who will likely be relegated to a nickel back assignment this year. With starting corners Antoine Cromartie (Pro Bowl last season) and Quentin Jammer (shut down type) being so good and so young, it seems as if Cason will remain third in line for awhile but arguably make this the NFL’s best CB unit. His addition has the Chargers incredibly blessed with an abundance of cover corners.

LSU tough guy fullback Jacob Hester was taken in the second round and like Cason, he’ll immediately step in and provide quality depth in a backfield that lost Michael Turner to free agency ( Atlanta ) in the off season. Hester can lead block on any down, move the chains in tough short yardage situations or get into the endzone in goal line spots. He fills a void left by fullback Lorenzo Neal and he’ll slide into the spot left by Turner but he’s not the all around runner Turner is.        

The rest of the Chargers draft picks may not stick but I’m rooting for Boston College CB DeJuan Tribble who was a force the past three seasons on the Eagles defense. Tribble has the intangibles to fit on this squad in dime situations. Yes, the CB position is loaded here in San Diego but Tribble is just one of those “football players” who I think can overcome his lack of height which people point to as his top drawback. As a specialty defensive back, this is the perfect situation for him and he’s got the perfect skill set to be a contributor here.

Immediate reactions can sometimes be over reactions so after attending this year’s NFL Draft and walking out with an abundance of initial feelings, I sat down the past few weeks and sorted everything out. After total review, I came up with these rankings, gradings, feelings or whatever you want to call them. In this series of eight NFL Draft blog entries I’ll rank the teams inside their own division from first to last as to how I feel they did with their selections.   

AFC SOUTH

1) Indianapolis Colts – In a very vanilla sort of way, I really like the results of this draft for the Colts especially when you note the fact that they did not have a first round pick. They doubled up on their selections in three different areas with their first six picks and may have come away with as many first year contributors as Jacksonville and their more bold style of draft did. Linebacker Phillip Wheeler of Georgia Tech has the total package and thus a realistic chance to crack the Indy starting lineup at some point this season. At GTech during his junior and senior years, he was the focal point of every offense's blocking scheme and still recorded 177 tackles (23 for loss) plus 18.5 sacks. Wheeler was a natural in defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta’s aggressive, blitz oriented scheme which makes him a perfect fit for the Colts and head coach Dungy’s style. I think this was the Colts best draft selection when you consider the immense talent they got here at #30 of the third round and #93 overall.

Joining Wheeler on the perimeter of the second level is fifth rounder Marcus Howard who at 237 pounds figures to become a situational pass rushing OLB. Howard led the University of Georgia in sacks last season with 11 and he posted the fastest 40 time (4.42) of any OLB in this draft. Howard has all the tools to become a top flight pass rusher in time and he’s already been likened to current Colts DE Robert Mathis. Intrastate rivals Georgia Tech and Georgia provided Indy with a couple of players who can really apply pressure.

In the Colts two tight end offensive system, Kentucky’s Jacob Tamme and Virginia’s Tom Santi each have an opportunity to make a measurable impact now that former starter Ben Utecht is now a Bengal. Veteran Bryan Fletcher has a hold on the role opposite Pro Bowler Dallas Clark right now, but Tamme and Santi are both good enough to see some time immediately. The problem could be learning the Colts playbook and of course getting in sync with QB Peyton Manning but coming from a throwing program with a former NFL head coach in Rich Brooks, I give Tamme and his pass catching abilities a real shot. Santi could be used more in running situations to take advantage of his size and blocking skills. These guys were very productive college players and have the size, strength and speed to make it at this level.

The interior of the offensive line was also addressed heavily by Indianapolis in this draft and they used their first pick which came late in round two on Arizona State lineman Mike Pollak. The Colts have already planned on Pollak being the successor to starting center Jeff Saturday when the three time Pro Bowl selection decides to walk away from football. In the meantime, Indy is allowing Pollak a shot at Charlie Johnson’s right guard position and there’s a good chance he’ll earn it. Pollak’s athletic ability figures to work well with the Colts stretch running game. Steve Justice was chosen in the sixth round and the All-ACC center looks to be a part of the Colts offensive line plans. He’ll begin this season as a backup, but Justice could play his way into a starting post in the future. Ideally, Indianapolis would love for that to happen as they would have gained a pair of starters for the OL from this draft.    

Again, a very unexciting, vanilla type draft at first glance, but that’s only because of the positions Indianapolis focused on. I view this as the best draft in the AFC South.                

2) Jacksonville – The Jaguars made a lot of noise with their ultra aggressive move up the draft’s first round ladder so now Florida Gators defensive end Derrick Harvey has to prove they were correct or this organization will be heavily criticized. I have to admit that I was shocked as I heard the details of the trade, thinking that four picks in this draft (their first rounder #26, two third rounders #71 & #89 plus a fourth round #125) was way too much for Harvey. The opinions on how disruptive Harvey will be at this level vary and I myself question why this team did not just take their first rounder (#26 overall) and trade it to the Miami Dolphins for a proven Pro Bowl all around DE in Jason Taylor. To his credit, Harvey accumulated an extremely impressive 30 tackles for loss and 19½ sacks the past two seasons. It’s interesting that Jacksonville has made every vocal indication that they are playing for a championship now but they choose the NFL novice over an established Pro Bowler with at least three strong years left.

Jacksonville did back that selection right up with another explosive edge pass rusher in Auburn’s Quentin Groves and I like this selection from a value standpoint much more than that of Harvey. Every time I saw Auburn play, Groves was a defensive monster who could change the momentum of games in a flash and force offenses to over commit to him subsequently opening up play making opportunities for his teammates. He heads into Jacksonville with a bit of a maturity issue but Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio is very good at getting his players to focus on football and I feel Groves will be an instant asset to this team.

The remaining three picks are all likely to be backups but don’t count out South Florida cornerback Trae Williams. Sure Mike Jenkins got all of the draft hype, but together with Williams, they formed one of the nation’s top cornerback tandems the past couple of seasons. Williams does not have the athletic gifts of Jenkins, but I think he’s skilled enough to be a situational defensive back right away even in this talented secondary.

If the Jaguars were not so gung ho on advertising their mission of going for the title right now, then I probably would’ve rated this draft higher. As it stands, they got themselves a pair of outstanding defensive terrors who hail from college football's most dominant conference. There’s no doubt they’ve got the potential to be future standouts in the NFL but if Jacksonville wants 2008 to be their year then I think they needed to trade for Taylor rather than unload their draft for Harvey. This year's selections figure to help the team legitimately pursue the ultimate payoff but they’re probably not ready to do that this year.  

3) Tennessee – It baffles me how people are so quick to commend the Dallas Cowboys on their first round selection of Arkansas running back Felix Jones and label the Titans draft as a failure because their opening round choice was Chris Johnson. Why is everyone else in the NFL very smart to assemble these newfangled “thunder and lightning” type backfields and Tennessee not intelligent for doing the same? Yes I understand that most of the free world craved a top level wide receiver selection out of this team right off the bat, but Johnson creates more explosiveness in this offense than any of the wideouts could have. Listen, New Orleans drafted Reggie Bush at #2 with a miserable offensive line in front of him but that pairing of Deuce McAllister’s inside force with Bush’s run/catch diversity and home run ability is still thought of as one of the league’s more dangerous tandems. Marion Barber and Felix Jones is thought to be brilliant of Dallas and I think that this combination of Lendale White and Johnson is too. This pair (like Dallas’) gets to play behind one of the most powerful and physical offensive lines in the league. Johnson can utilize the excellent blocking of his mates as either a rusher or a receiver on quick hitting swing passes and screens which are high percentage throws for QB Vince Young. Personally, I feel he’ll even be used to stretch the field on vertical routes the way Bush is. I think this selection works in terms of seriously upgrading the quick strike ability of this offense which is what Tennessee needed to be in pursuit of with their first round choice.     

The Titans lost DE’s Antwan Odom (Cincinnati) and Travis LaBoy (Arizona) to free agency which leaves a fairly significant void, and Eastern Michigan defensive end Jason Jones will be asked to help fill that void. Once Pittsburgh selected Texas wide receiver one slot ahead of Tennessee, I think this was the proper direction to follow. The second round selection has down the road potential as a starter because he can defend the run and pass but he could be called into action right away if free agent acquisition Jevon Kearse’s knee injury acts up again. 50 tackles for loss and 14 QB sacks in three years at Eastern Michigan aren’t earth shattering numbers but I think Jones can contribute as a situational pass rusher here immediately because there are so many other defensive line stalwarts for offenses to contend with.   

I don’t really understand the need to select California tight end Craig Stevens in the third round since the Titans acquired ex-Falcons TE Alge Crumpler in the off season and already have Bo Scaife to serve as the #2. Tennessee’s first fourth round choice William Hayes, a defensive end out of Winston-Salem, appears to be a head scratcher as well. However, I will endorse their second fourth round selection, wide receiver Lavelle Hawkins from California. The ex-Golden Bear had a strong senior campaign and he was the go to guy for a portion of it because star wideout DeSean Jackson was injured. Hawkins pulled in 72 passes and should be a nice additional target for this offense.   

The entirety of this draft wasn’t great as indicated by the fact that I ranked it third in the AFC South division. I do like the choice of Johnson a lot and will say that if Jones can develop into a starting caliber defensive end quickly, this quickly avoids being a below average overall draft.      

4) Houston – There is not one player that this team drafted who will have any shot of helping this season so I give them the bottom spot. The future could be different as first rounder Duane Brown out of Virginia Tech is thought by many to be capable of becoming an athletic tackle in this league but the converted tight end will need at least a year of offensive line coach Alex Gibbs’ tutelage before he’s ready to play effectively. Houston traded back up into the first in order to land Brown’s services so they do have high hopes for him. Third round Eastern Kentucky cornerback Antwaun Molden and fifth round defensive tackle Frank Okam of Texas are additional long term projects taken by the Texans. While I absolutely loved watching running back Steve Slaton run for West Virginia, it became clear to me that he had trouble holding on to the football which I feel will cause him major trouble at this level where ball stripping now seems to be taught ahead of tackling technique. Slaton’s cut back style is not likely to find the gaping holes he found in Morgantown because opposing defenses will not have to account for Houston quarterback Matt Schaub running the football. Slaton’s slithery style doesn’t figure to be a huge asset behind this offensive line and his lack of inside running toughness will be glaring. He might be best suited in a situational pass catching role where Houston can get him some space on swings and screens. The top pick in the Texans draft to me was the fourth round selection of Virginia Tech outside linebacker Xavier Adibi who may come up short in some of the measureables but he comes up large as a productive football player. In the 118th spot overall, Houston may have found itself a great value.