With my early summer NFL Power Ratings for the 2008 season now set, we can look at and compare the opening week numbers. In this blog entry, I’ll list the current line on each game for week #1 of the NFL season and my power ratings line. Remember, the months of July and August are likely to see changes made to some of the power ratings but for those who like to forecast or even place wagers right now, here’s a look at NFL week #1. I’ll look at four games each day starting today and ending on Thursday. I’ll start at the top of the card and go in rotation order so with that in mind, the Thursday night season opener between NFC East rivals Washington and New York is up first.  

Washington at New York Giants  

Current Line: New York -4

RV Power Ratings: New York -6

Quick Take: It seems as if the odds makers have dropped the defending Super Bowl Champs season ending rating. Maybe the assessment of lowering the Giants is due to the free agent losses they incurred during the off season or perhaps they feel the Giants 2007 ultimate accomplishment is just not indicative of the overall talent on this team. In any case, I left each of these teams ratings exactly where they were at end of the ’07 season seeing no real personnel loss or gain by either that would warrant a change. 

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Current Line: Baltimore -1

RV Power Ratings: Cincinnati -2

Quick Take: The odds makers obviously played to the negative national media attention Cincinnati has drawn this off season from the Chad Johnson situation. There was an obvious shaving of the true number by those on the other side of the counter as they installed Baltimore as the slim favorite likely anticipating the public to be anti-Cincinnati. The truth of the matter is, the Bengals figure to be at least the same as they were at the close of 2007 and probably a shade better because of lesser publicized positives. The linebacking corps is healthier and improved, ditto for the offensive line, and they now have a pass catching threat at tight end. As for Baltimore , the same broken down offense now without retired stud left tackle Jonathan Ogden is going through a system change. I can’t believe the line makers would have upgraded their perception of the Ravens so this line is really media and public opinion driven. I have each of these teams carrying the same power rating they concluded the 2007 season with as I saw nothing impactful enough to change. I will say however that my gut feeling was to spike Cincy up a half point or so because their personnel level is a bit improved. Even though this is Baltimore ’s home opener, the Bengals provide some value at the current price.

New York Jets at Miami

Current Line: New York Jets -2.5

RV Power Ratings: New York Jets -3.5

Quick Take: Interesting difference here because the number offered to us is shaded toward the short side of the ever popular -3 while my power ratings place it on the high. Sorry guys, you can’t middle your off shore and the power ratings but it could be worth it to take a flyer on the Jets -2.5 right now with the hope that by the time the game comes, Miami is +3.5 or better. The number placed by odds makers indicates to me a significant favoritism toward the Dolphins. The Jets made a host of positive off season personnel moves while Miami is in a complete re-evaluation process. Having Bill Parcells run the show is all well and good and it may even bring improvement as the season wares on but the amount of experimentation and real game system learning that will be taking place in week one has them significantly behind the Jets. Again, big name attached to a lot of hype equals a value laden point spread toward the other side.

Kansas City at New England

Current Line: New England -14.5

RV Power Ratings: New England -18

Quick Take: There no question in my mind that this price should climb once we get to late August. As it stands, the again determined Patriots appear to be a bargain as they’re still the same dominating offense and exceptional defensive front seven. Secondary departues are a concern but KC is not likely to light anyone up through the air. The Chiefs may be the beneficiary of some rosy forecasts based off their impressive draft class but it’s going to take some time to gel. The trade of pass rush specialist Jared Allen hurts them in this contest as does their starting cornerback tandem of “long in the tooth” Patrick Surtain and rookie Brandon Flowers. Having Larry Johnson back and healthy certainly helps, but this is a very tough defense to run against. I even downgraded the Patriots power rating by a point because of the uncertainty in the secondary and there’s still a lot of room here to play the Pats. Seems the folks who make the line really lifted KC up and pushed NE down a bit too much each way.