With my early summer NFL Power Ratings for the 2008 season now set, we can look at and compare the opening week numbers. In this blog entry, I’ll list the current line on each game for week #1 of the NFL season and my power ratings line. Remember, the months of July and August are likely to see changes made to some of the power ratings but for those who like to forecast or even place wagers right now, here’s a look at NFL week #1. I’ll look at four games each day starting today and ending on Thursday. I’ll start at the top of the card and go in rotation order so with that in mind, games five through eight are on tap for today so let's pick it up with the Houston-Pittsburgh contest.  

Houston at Pittsburgh

Current Line: Pittsburgh -7

RV Power Ratings: Pittsburgh -7

Quick Take: My power ratings are in total agreement here with the line currently offered to us. The Steelers offseason left them with basically the same set of strengths and weaknesses as last season and I did not change their 2007 season ending rating. The loss of perennial Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca to free agency (Jets) hurts the offensive line but the Steelers figure to offset that concern with an improved pass rush that has a chance to terrorize opponents in defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau’s blitz happy scheme. The explosive and very diverse passing game could really hurt the Texans weakened secondary in this one. For Houston , their power rating remains status quo as well. They made a nice leap last season raising their number four points over where it ended in 2006 and they head into this year in a holding pattern waiting to make their next jump. The running game (offensive line guru Alex Gibbs was brought in to help) and secondary remain the concerns and right now they seem to be as good as they were at the close of last season.    

Jacksonville at Tennessee

Current Line: Jacksonville -3

RV Power Ratings: Jacksonville -2

Quick Take: Another contest where the numbers being compared are very similar. Again, I think the extra point the odds makers have Jacksonville favored by is somewhat due to offseason hype and the fact that the majority of the public is buying into it. There’s no doubt the Jaguars have been aggressive in attempting to improve their passing game which grew by leaps and bounds under QB David Garrard last season. It’s questionable to me how much first round draft pick Derrick Harvey (Florida DE) will help the pass rush in week #1but in time, he and Auburn OLB Quentin Groves figure to establish themselves. I kept Jacksonville’s power rating to start this season exactly the same as it was after their playoff loss to New England mainly because I feel the offense is more dynamic but the defensive line begins ’08 a hare more vulnerable. I also noted the defensive system change under new DC Gregg Williams which will need some real game familiarity for both Williams and his players before it can really show its advantages. As always, the Titans seem to be a tad underrated by many. Some of that is attributed to the poor draft grades many experts gave them and some is due to losses on each side of the line. DE’s Travis LaBoy and Antwan Odom are more of a concern than that of OG Jacob Bell in my mind but overall, I don’t feel they’ve lost all that much. This is still a very physical team and I left their power rating alone.                         

Detroit at Atlanta

Current Line: Detroit -1

RV Power Ratings: Atlanta -1

Quick Take: A difference in favorites here between my power ratings and the current pointspread. Remember, the line makers job is not only to formulate an accurate number based on the teams and the situation, but they also have to anticipate which side the bettors are going to react to. Our job on this side of the counter is to accurately project when the majority opinion is wrong and capitalize on value if line is padded in the wrong direction. Sticking with the common theme here, Atlanta was likely made a home dog because of the consensus media driven assessment that Atlanta is the league’s worst team. I have trouble believing that they are any worse than the quitting bunch who closed out last season so I have them rated exactly the same. If nothing else, there will be a new sense of pride and desire here which will equal to 60 full minutes of playing hard. There are some personnel changes and some inexperience is being inserted but when you look at the big picture, this team may even be better right now than it was last December. The Lions are under going a radical offensive change as they switch from a high octane passing system to a punishing, grind it out rushing style. It’s questionable whether they have the parts to make that happen right away. They also lost some very key defensive components that weren’t completely replaced so they should start the year a shade weaker on that side of the ball. I lowered the Lions power rating a full point to start the year.     

Seattle at Buffalo

Current Line: Buffalo PK

RV Power Ratings: Buffalo -0.5

Quick Take: Virtually even in our opinions here which to me signals the mutual concern over what’s now becoming a very limited Seattle receiving corps. Head Coach Mike Holmgren’s “west coast” offense has zero proven vertical ability to start the year since WR Deion Branch will be sidelined with his knee injury and WR D.J. Hackett changed uniforms ( Carolina ). Defenses figure to close in on the line of scrimmage against this team which may also hinder the ground game led now by ex-Dallas Cowboy Julius Jones. Defensively, the Seahawks should be very strong across all three levels. I think we’re going to see a transformation of this team which will now be anchored by the defense. I view the decrease in offense as a problem and I dropped the Seahawks power rating one point. Buffalo is a team I view with immediate upside and I heightened their power rating by 2 ½ points. The definitive move to Trent Edwards as the team’s starting QB, the return of the multiple defensive backfield parts that were all on the injured list almost immediately last season and the addition of Marcus Stroud to the front seven has me high on this team. The feelings on these teams looks to be shared by myself and the odds makers.