With my early summer NFL Power Ratings for the 2008 season now set, we can look at and compare the opening week numbers. In this blog entry, I’ll list the current line on each game for week #1 of the NFL season and my power ratings line. Remember, the months of July and August are likely to see changes made to some of the power ratings but for those who like to forecast or even place wagers right now, here’s a look at NFL week #1. I’ll look at four games each day starting today and ending on Thursday. I’ll start at the top of the card and go in rotation order so with that in mind, games nine through twelve are on tap for today so let's pick it up with the NFC South clash between Tampa Bay and New Orleans.    

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Current Line: New Orleans -3

RV Power Ratings: New Orleans -1

Quick Take: This pointspread indicates that the Saints have been rewarded for their aggressive off season moves to bolster their defense. The situation of having an opening day home atmosphere in a divisional game probably got the Saints some line consideration too. With four veteran additions to that side of the ball plus first round defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis out of USC, the belief is that New Orleans has improved. When you sift through everything, the Saints probably fortified their defensive depth more than anything as only Jonathan Vilma and Ellis are starting material. The acquisitions do project positively which helps but I could not upgrade this team's power rating because the offense stayed put. Last season, this unit was exposed as one that cannot stretch the field and QB Drew Brees was forced to dink and dunk exclusively. Is Robert Meacham the answer? With RB Deuce McAlister’s return as an impact player still very much up in the air, Reggie Bush’s production will continue to suffer. Tampa’s stout defense held the Saints to 37 total points en-route to a sweep of their games last year and that defensive group returns just about in tact. The Bucs offense is still a concern but the offensive line is getting progressively better which will make them more potent as the season goes on. Tampa Bay basically starts this season as the same team they were at the end of last season so no power rating adjustment was made.         

St. Louis at Philadelphia

Current Line: Philadelphia -7

RV Power Ratings: Philadelphia -8

Quick Take: I raised the Rams power rating more than any team in the NFL to start the season because I believe they are going to be that much improved. With four full points added to last season’s finishing number and a status quo approach taken toward the Eagles, I still am a point higher on the Philadelphia side of this game. Now, I have not done it yet because it’s a current unknown, but if Eagles QB Donovan McNabb’s shoulder turns out to be a problem heading into the season then Philly will be downgraded. Perhaps the odds makers have already shaved a point off of this game due to McNabb's reported problems throwing during this offseason and that’s where our pointspread difference is. In any case, if this game were played in the final week of the 2007 season just seven months ago, Philadelphia would have been a 12 point choice. The fact that they opened as only seven shows that the odds makers really like St. Louis as an improved team. They’ve got some things to sift through and their offensive line may not be ready this quickly to handle Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson’s love for blitzes, but St. Louis is going to be a pointspread producer this season. The McNabb issue is critical to this game and if you think there’s a shot he won’t be healthy, take the +7 now before it disappears. If he plays, this line will remain as is.    

Dallas at Cleveland

Current Line: Dallas -3

RV Power Ratings: Dallas -2

Quick Take: I know, I know, I know, the first glance you take at this just screams Wow! Has Cleveland really come this far to where they are now just +3 at home versus what many believe is to be this year’s NFC Super Bowl rep? That’s a question you’ve got to answer for yourself but certainly HC Romeo Crennell’s Browns now have the firm respect of the oddsmakers. Cleveland may have made the best defensive free agent acquisitions when they hauled in the front line tandem of ex-Lions DT Shaun Rogers and ex-Packers DE Corey Williams. If these guys adapt right out of the chute and the secondary finds a way to improve after losing their top CB Leigh Bodden, then they can not only cover this number but win this game straight up. Those however are tall tasks and the Browns probably wish this game was played in October to give them some time. I do think their personnel moves were wise and I raised them a half a point to start the year. Dallas meanwhile is loaded everywhere and their secondary could provide a lot of resistance to the Browns explosive passing game. Dallas ended 2007 with one of the three highest power ratings in the NFL and I jumped that up a half a point. Their cohesiveness and experience warrant that.

Carolina at San Diego

Current Line: San Diego -9.5

RV Power Ratings: San Diego -13.5

Quick Take: Carolina does get QB Jake Delhomme back from injury to start this season after a carousel of misfits tried to fill the void last year and they’ve made some nice improvements to every component of their offense. Because of that, I raised their power rating a full point to start the season. I fully expect them to be much more competitive in the NFC South this season but in week #1 they’ll have revamped offensive and defensive lines along with a sizeable question mark where applying quarterback pressure is concerned. The projected starting units in those areas figure to provide a nice upgrade but they need playing time together in order to mesh before they can reach their potential. San Diego on the other hand is a loaded club with few questions and their eye set on the Super Bowl which they’ve developed a real hunger for. Backup running back, lead blocking fullback are the only real questions for this team and I raised them one point in the power ratings making them the third highest rated team in the league. The fundamental mismatches in the trenches here are enormous and this is a line where I feel the number currently being hung is way off.