With my early summer NFL Power Ratings for the 2008 season now set, we can look at and compare the opening week numbers. In this blog entry, I’ll list the current line on each game for week #1 of the NFL season and my power ratings line. Remember, the months of July and August are likely to see changes made to some of the power ratings but for those who like to forecast or even place wagers right now, here’s a look at NFL week #1. I’ll look at four games each day starting today and ending on Thursday. I’ll start at the top of the card and go in rotation order so today, the final four games on the opening week card are on tap for today. Let's pick it up with the NFC West divisional matchup between Arizona and San Francisco.    

Arizona at San Francisco

Current Line: Arizona -2.5

RV Power Ratings: Arizona -2.5

Quick Take: My power ratings and the odds makers see eye to eye on this one which indicates that the Cardinals and 49ers are viewed the same way numerically as they were to close the ’07 season. For Arizona, there is no reason to change their power rating one way or the other because their offseason saw their acquisitions and departures cancel each other out. Personnel wise, Arizona is exactly the same on paper but they could become a better team this year because they are in year #2 of HC Ken Wisenhunt’s tenure. Familiarity could breed some extra pointspread success but I’ll be a counter puncher with this team and react to what they show me. As for the 49ers, they are undergoing a massive system overhaul on offense as OC Mike Martz takes over with his pass happy scheme. I saw no reason to change their power rating because they’re not likely to grasp the new offensive system and flourish right away. On the other hand, even if they don’t, there’s no way they can be more wretched than they were last season. Defensively the Niners are a pretty sound group but they may again be on the field a lot because quick three and outs from their new look offense are bound to be frequent early in the season.             

Chicago at Indianapolis

Current Line: Indianapolis -9.5

RV Power Ratings: Indianapolis -13

Quick Take: Downgrading the Colts seems to be a popular sentiment amongst NFL followers and certainly the odds maker has taken that stance as evidenced by this line. I chose not to mess with Indy’s power rating at all, simply because I don’t see the oncoming slip in their performance that others do. To me, they had a playoff game to end last season where they did not perform the way they were expected to and as always, people over react to what they saw last. Indianapolis is still an offensive juggernaut and their defense on paper suggests they’ll be as strong as they were last season. Where the Bears are concerned, I took “the fifth” as well and did absolutely nothing. Their power rating to end the 2007 campaign is what I have them starting 2008 with so you can see from the 3 ½ gap between numbers that the line makers may have upgraded the Bears a bit as well as downgraded the Colts. I can’t buy into any Chicago improvement yet because their quarterback and running back issues are so glaring right now. Their defense should bounce back and play a bit better this season but they’ve got to be a whole lot better to change this unit's ’07 disaster. This team has virtually the same veteran starters as last season and the rookie class isn’t enough to warrant an uptick in the power rating.              

Minnesota at Green Bay

Current Line: Green Bay -4.5

RV Power Ratings: Green Bay -3

Quick Take: Perception is responsible for this line as Minnesota is a very trendy bandwagon to be on right now and Green Bay is not. Of course, each of these lines were established with the thought that Aaron Rogers will be the Packers quarterback for this game but now, that thought is a little less concrete with the Brett Favre return rumors swirling. I think there is an over reaction here toward the Vikings who even went out and wowed the masses by acquiring Pro Bowl DE Jarred Allen from the Chiefs. There is no doubt that Minnesota has the potential to become the NFC rep in this season's Super Bowl but they’re rated right now by many as if they’re the second choice to Dallas. Green Bay remains an extremely talented team on each side of the ball and if Rogers performs in above average fashion, they could find themselves in the NFC title game. However, Rogers' ability to guide this team to the same heights right out of the gate as Favre did last year is in question. I dropped the Packers three points from their 2007 closing power rating while raising the Vikings one and that four point combined swing still has my line a point and a half higher than the one available for wagering. Obviously there are even larger differences in these teams heading into 2008 in the eyes of the odds makers but I feel Green Bay is a hair undervalued and Minnesota a shade overvalued in this price.

Denver at Oakland

Current Line: Denver -1

RV Power Ratings: Denver -1

Quick Take: In perfect agreement with the line here. Denver is idling right now as they own the same power rating they did at the conclusion of last season. Offensively they have questions across the offensive front and at running back but I feel their passing attack is stronger so the potential point production at least in the beginning appears to be the same. Defensively they are a tad better on paper but not enough for a boost in their power rating. It seems that the linemakers feel the same as I do about this team. However, they must figure Oakland to be more competitive this year in order to come up with the +1 number. I actually raised the Raiders power rating 1 ½ points based on what I view as a vastly improved defense led by what is one of the top starting defensive backfields in the conference. Throw in a significant upgrade in the defensive line through free agency and I feel Oakland will chop 3.5 to 4.5 points off of their 26 average points allowed in 2007. Monday night atmosphere may have been a factor incorporated in this line by the odds makers but overall, I think we each just see the Raiders as a better team to start this campaign.