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Prop Betting Tips
Alatex Sports
01/26/2007
Alatex Sports

I started betting Super Bowl props in the early 90's, way before they became as popular as they are now. Back then, I made sure to be in Vegas the week of the Super Bowl and spent a lot of time running all over town getting prop sheets. The Imperial Palace always had the most and best props and came up with more creative ones each year. I used to count on making 5 to 6 units on props alone every Super Bowl and always had more cash riding on props than the actual outcome of the game itself.

These days, my prop action isn't quite as much as it was then. As it seems is the case with everything these days, the prop numbers weren't quite as sharp in those days as they are now. The offshore industry has really changed sports gambling in many ways, and Super Bowl props are yet another example. Before the offshore explosion, there was not a standard for the props for the books in Las Vegas to go by. Jay Kornegay at the Imperial Palace put out his own numbers and other sportsbook directors did the same. There were many different numbers available on the same prop and if you were quick enough, there were several middling opportunities available each year. Actually, you didn't even have to be that quick as there was no Don Best screen and not much focus on the props by professional gamblers. I also remember being able to get stale lines on some props from local bookmakers. Of course, they usually on had about 15-20 different ones at the most, but there was usually one or two I wanted to play.

It is a much different prop landscape these days with the internet. Now, books don't even have to do any work, they can just copy the numbers from the major shops on the screen. That has taken a lot of the fun out of it for me. I don't approach props thinking that I am going to be able to find 5 to 7 props that have numbers that are clearly out of whack as I used to do. The ones I used to play were the generic props that were not based on the game scenario. In other words, there were always a few props to be found that just had bad numbers and should win no matter how the game was going: blow out or tight game, high scoring or low scoring. These would usually be over-under props, ie. Over two field goals, over 2 interceptions, etc.

I also would find different player props that had numbers based on their season averages, when in fact they had either become more involved or less involved in the offense in recent games. These are still the types of props that I look for, trying to find a receiver that averages 78 yards per game for the year, but has become a go to guy in the last six weeks and has topped that mark 6 straight times. The best way to come up with these numbers is to print out the boxscores of every game that both teams have played this season. Don't even pay attention to seasonal averages; just look at each game individually, with more emphasis on recent games. Also, don't overlook how the opposing defense has fared against tight ends, slot receivers, fullbacks or whatever offensive player that you might be researching. One year I found a play on a tight end under five receptions because the opposing defense hadn't allowed a tight end to catch more than five passes all year.

There are still some of these types of props that can be beaten each year if you do enough work. Most people still just want to look at the season averages and bet from there, but that is not the sharpest way to go.

Of course there are many other props out there as well. Yes/no props on everything from will there be a safety to will both teams score in the first quarter. These all have money lines on them of course and some value can be found in these props as well. Try not to lay too much however with the favorites, remember that anything can happen and it sucks to lose a -300 bet on a fluke play. On the other hand, I like to throw in a couple of big money line underdog props each year for fun. There is nothing like hitting a 12-1 longshot on who will score the first touchdown of the game. If I like the underdog, I may also take a shot with them winning by exactly 4-7 points at a big plus price for a small bet.

This year I will once again make the majority of my prop wagering on the player props. I have already played a few and will look to make a few more bets later. It should be a fun Super Bowl and hopefully Peyton Manning will score the first TD on a sneak at 23-1!



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