When it comes to the Super Bowl, there are more than 500 potential wagers that can be placed. Known for their sharp perspectives, the Sportsmemo.com Handicappers have identified some key places where extra value can be found when placing your 2007 Super Bowl XLI bets.
1. Salary Cap Super Bowl
Over the past nine Super Bowls, parity has struck the point spread. Despite seven of the games featuring a point spread of -7 or more, only one favorite in this range has covered a spread. The underdog is quite profitable going 4-1-2 against the spread. In the two games with pushes, astute shoppers were also likely to have found the extra ½ point to provide the cover. This is a far cry from the dynasty dominated eighties and early nineties. In that era the favorites cashed eight of 11 opportunities. Obviously the games have been closer as well as in nine of the last ten Super Bowls the underdog covered or was one score away from doing so. The last ten finales the average margin of defeat has been 11.6 points. The previous ten games saw a margin of 23.5 points.
2. Super Bowl Totals
Game totals present the savvy bettor yet another option to find an edge in betting the Super Bowl. Since 1982 bettors have seen the Super Bowl go over the total at a 60 percent clip. Breaking it down over recent history, however, we have seen a 50/50 split of four “Overs” and four “Unders”. But we have seen a rather eye-catching trend over this same eight game span. The first half total is averaging just 16 points scored, while the second half has seen an average of 30 points scored. The average game total over those eight games was 45 points meaning an average first half total would be posted, most likely, between 21 and 23 and second half line would likely come between 21 and 23. Based on our breakdown of first and second half scoring trends, there would be value in playing first half totals Under and second half totals Over, proving once again that just because a game has started doesn’t mean the chance to place and cash a wager is through.
3. Teams With Better Scoring Defense
In the last 11 Super Bowls, the team that entered the Super Bowl with the better scoring defense (that is, the defense that allowed less “points against” over the course of the season) won nine times straight up. It is not as pronounced of a trend when you stack it up against the spread: Just a 5-4-2 record. But, dig a little deeper and you’ll find that the team with the better scoring defense has been installed as an underdog four times over this span; they have covered three of those four matchups, including two straight up wins.
4. NFC vs. AFC Inter-Conference Games
Since 2001 the conference that has won more games head to head over the other conference (i.e: AFC teams went 44-20 vs. NFC teams in 2004) has contained the Super Bowl winner. The lone exception was 2002 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Oakland Raiders (see: “Teams With Better Scoring Defense” tip). This year the AFC won 40 of the 64 inter-conference games with Indianapolisrecording a 3-1 mark vs. the NFC. The Bears were 2-2 this year vs. the AFC.
5. Super Bowl MVP Prop
Thinking about betting an NFL future proposition on the Super Bowl MVP? Here are a couple of things to consider: The MVP award has typically been dominated by Quarterbacks, winning 20 of the 41 (1978 had co-MVPs) trophies. The next most rewarded position has been Running Back, earning seven awards, followed by five for Wide Receivers, three for Defensive Backs, two for Linebackers, two for Defensive Linemen, and one for a Kick/Punt Returner. Only one time has the losing team had someone voted in as the Super Bowl MVP (Chuck Howley, 1971). Wide Receivers have taken the last two MVP trophies, and you have to go all the way back to 1998 to find the last RB to win MVP (Terrell Davis).
6. Commitment To The Rushing Attack Leads To Success Through The Air
It's no secret that a solid commitment to the rushing attack can (and usually does) lead to success through the air: In the Bears case, a solid commitment to getting Thomas Jones the ball has led to aerial success for Rex Grossman more often than not. In the five games in which Jones did not carry the ball 20 or more times (excluding the final two weeks, for “resting” purposes), Grossman completed just 49 percent of his passes with a horrendous 5:9 touchdown to interception ratio,averaging just about two interceptions per game. In the Super Bowl era teams whose QBs throw two or more interceptions in a game have a winning percentage of just 23%.
7. Vinatieri's A Machine
Adam Vinatieri has been a point producing machine this year for Indianapolis. Including the Colts’ three playoff games the kicker has been held to less than nine points just five times all year! He has already kicked 11 field goals in three playoff games, and converted a perfect five of five extra point attempts. Though the defensive competition is thought to increase here against the Bears, its hard to imagine AV won’t be able to hit his average of 9.1 combined points (since December). Several shops have his Over/Under total points listed at 8.5, paying slightly better odds on the over.
