Toronto @ San Diego
Jason Marquis is a pitcher on my “fade” list right now and certainly appears to be regressing as the season moves along. Marquis had one of his worst starts of the season last time out against Arizona allowing 4 runs on 7 hits in just 3.1 innings while giving up 4 walks and notching just 2 strikeouts. He is the type of pitcher that I expect to struggle when stepping up in class against a power hitting American League lineup like the Toronto Blue Jays. He only pitched 5 innings in his last start against an AL team when he faced Baltimore allowing 2 runs on 7 hits and allowing more walks than strikeouts. Marquis was crushed by this Blue Jays lineup when he faced them in 2012 allowing 6 runs on 7 hits in 4 innings and he is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA in five career appearances including three starts against Toronto. If he fails to pitch deep tonight, it could be a problem later in the game after the Padres bullpen was forced to throw 3 innings of relief last night and San Diego’s strength in their pen is the back end not so much in middle relief. I expect the Jays to score their share of runs in bunches tonight as Toronto remains on a torrid 32-21 Over run this season which includes 14-9 to the Over on the road.
Chad Jenkins is nothing more than a spot starter for the Blue Jays. He’ll be asked to get the Jays through the first 5 innings and that’s about it leaving the suspect Jays bullpen to finish the game and that is a struggling group that has been allowing late runs all season long. Jenkins has allowed 15 hits in 10 innings in his two starts this season but only allowed 4 runs but his mediocre peripherals walking as many batters as he struck out in those games (4) paint a clear picture that the runs are going to come eventually for opposing teams hitting against Jenkins. San Diego’s lineup performs much better against righties as they are hitting 50 points better against right-handed pitchers and scoring more than a run more per game averaging 4.34 runs per contest against RHP. San Diego is 14-11 to the Over here at Petco Park this season in a ballpark that simply isn’t a pitching dominated stadium like it used to be especially after the fences were moved in prior to the start of the season.
Toronto’s bullpen has been forced to log a whopping 16.2 innings of work in the last three days because of their starters falling to pitch well or deep into ballgames leaving them vulnerable to giving up some late runs tonight and helping this game get up and Over the total.