Boston (Fister) at Toronto (Estrada) -135 O/U 9.5
The last two seasons have been nothing but "extremes" for Toronto's Marco Estrada. In 2016, he pitched to a 3.48 ERA but given his high fly ball rate, was somewhat fortunate to allow only 23 home runs. This year, Estrada's K rate is up, walk rate down, but ERA hovering around 5.00 thanks to a .333 BABIP. If you look at Estrada's career numbers, because he surrenders so many fly ball outs, his BABIP is always amongst the lowest in MLB. So while Estrada's ERA is a run and a half higher than last season, he’s arguably pitched better. Note than one of his best starts of the season came against Boston: 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks. Doug Fister was signed out of necessity due to various injuries to Boston's starting staff. After a career year in 2014 (2.41 ERA), Fister, like a lot of arms north of 30, began to decline. And it made it especially tough for him when he moved from Washington to Houston where last season he finished with a 4.64 ERA and even higher 4.75 FIP. Fister however made a positive impression in his first start -- a favorable one -- where he went 6 innings and allowed 3 ERs against Los Angeles. Most notably, Fister's velocity was as high as it's been since 2013 and it showed as he missed 11 bats and struck out six. That was more swinging strikes than he had in any of his 32 starts last season. Pitching for a job -- and essentially his career -- there's a chance Fister puts together a string of quality starts. We'll look to play this game under the total.