Milwaukee (Guerra) +180 at New York (Montgomery) O/U 10.5
The Milwaukee Brewers have vaulted to the top of the NL Central division thanks to a recent 7-1 streak. They scored 4+ runs six times during that span and have also blistered southpaws all season long to the tune of over 5 runs per game. They face a lefty tonight in New York’s Jordan Montgomery who has pitched well this season but can at times be prone to the long ball having allowed six over his last four starts. Hitting dingers is what Milwaukee does best with 133 on the year; second only to the powerful Houston Astros (138). But perhaps most concerning for the Yankees is not Montgomery but their problematic bullpen with Dellin Betances, Adam Warren and even closer Aroldis Chapman all struggling to nail things down in the latter innings of late. Milwaukee’s Junior Guerra doesn’t have the type of seasonal numbers that suggest he’ll thrive in an American League park. But the young righty’s stats are somewhat skewed due to a poor start (8 ERs, 4 HRs) at Cincinnati. Outside of that outing, he’s been solid having allowed three runs or less in seven of nine trips to the hill. All of the key arms Milwaukee’s bullpen should be fresh and available after yesterday’s 11-2 romp over the Chicago Cubs and that matters since Guerra doesn’t generally go deep into games. The Brewers are one of the most profitable teams in MLB (+15.2 units) thanks to a near .500 record (25-27) as an underdog. The AL side getting a bit too much respect here as the underdog price is simply too good to pass up.