Milwaukee (Guerra) at Pittsburgh (Nova) -145 O/U 9
In terms of matchups, this isn't an ideal one for Pittsburgh's Ivan Nova. Milwaukee of course is a free swinging bunch that rarely walks and likes to hit the long ball. Nova, one of the league's most frequent strike throwers (15 BBs in 120.2 IP), has allowed 15 home runs on the season with nearly half (7) coming over his last five outings. In his lone start against the Brew Crew, Nova allowed 13 baserunners and was perhaps fortunate to surrender a modest four runs over seven innings. Milwaukee's Junior Guerra showed promise last season when he flashed a 2.81 ERA over 121 IP. But for a guy north of 30 years old and limited MLB experience, it was going to be tricky to sustain. Sure enough, Guerra has come crashing down to earth thanks to a rapid rise in walks and fly ball rate. Guerra has issues 31 free passes over just 49 IP while coughing up 13 dingers. Like Nova, he was fortunate that last time these two teams hooked up as he allowed 12 baserunners and nine line drives but escaped with only three earned runs over six inning. We were successful in playing yesterday's game under the total. Today's matchup dictates a strong look in the opposite direction.