New Orleans +3 at Cleveland O/U 38
Recommendation: New Orleans
Hue Jackson went 0-4 SU and ATS in his lone preseason as the head coach of the Oakland Raiders. Jackson followed that 0-fer up with an 0-4 SU and ATS mark in his first season with the Browns last year. Much of that was circumstantial – the Browns Week 1 roster last year had more rookies on it than any non-expansion team in NFL history.
But when we’re talking about a major steam line move – this game opened at pick em and is now painted Cleveland -3 with extra vig to support the favorite – that type of track record certainly doesn’t inspire confidence in this bettor! Whatever value their might have been with the Browns at pick em or -1 is long gone now.
Most pointspread decisions -- whether in the NFL Preseason or regular season or playoffs -- are decided after halftime. The mainstream media and the betting markets often play far too much attention to the ‘how much playing time are the starters going to get?’ announcements, as opposed to the ‘who is going to be on the field after halftime?’ question.
And much like last year in August, the Browns second half rotations look spotty at best – limited skill position talent, questionable offensive line chemistry and a QB rotation that doesn’t inspire much confidence. Rookie DeShone Kizer and fourth stringer ‘never will be’ Kevin Hogan are slated for the second half of this game, not exactly a bet-on duo.
Drew Brees won’t see the field tonight, but Chase Daniel, who has been excellent in preseasons past is likely to get extended playing time. And the Saints have a legitimate battle for the third string job – a bet-on situation in August – between a pair of guys who have plenty of experience against third string defenses in August, Garrett Grayson and Ryan Nassib. That duo is most assuredly not a ‘bet-on’ tandem in September, but in August, at +3, they’re a bet-no duo all the way! Take the Saints.