Virginia Tech at Boston College
Saturday, 4:15 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener: Virginia Tech -17 O/U 46.5
CRIS Current: Virginia Tech -16.5 O/U 45.5
Immediate bounce back is necessary here for the visiting Hokies who were defeated 31-17 at home last week by ACC kingpin Clemson. This type of situation generally points squarely in favor of the defensive minded double-digit home underdog. Mechanical handicap in this one would be to fade Virginia Tech which is traveling and off of a high profile conference loss. Letdown angle can’t be ignored here since it’s difficult to envision VT playing this one with the same intensity they possessed in last week’s prime time home showdown versus Clemson. Factor in the carry over confidence that Boston College will enter with after playing to a 7-7 tie at Clemson just two weeks ago. The fourth quarter really got away from BC but despite that they still managed to cover as +33. Steve Addazio with definitely remind his team all week long that if they just finish this time they’ll have a shot at defeating Va Tech. Home field and the memory of last year’s 49-0 loss in this matchup should also help with motivation, energy and focus Saturday night.
The problem for BC will be fundamentally where they are severely limited offensively and shaky at best on the defensive side versus quality diverse offenses. Two contests in particular stand out. The first is the Notre Dame game where they used their strong ground game and dual threat QB to dismantle BC’s defense for 611 total yards. Next is and the previously mentioned Clemson game where despite the three quarter struggle, CU also used their strong ground game and dual threat QB to register 482 total yards including a whopping 342 from their rushing attack. It’s obvious that the Eagles have skewed overall statistics which point out their defensive weakness at the line of scrimmage against foes where they must respect run and pass.
Tough call here as the situation clearly screams underdog but the fundamentals suggest potential favorite blowout. Virginia Tech has the defense at all three levels to stifle BC’s offense which has been held to 339 ty or less in four of their five games this season. Their 4.5 yards per pass attempt (highest game average this season was only 5.2) indicates they cannot stretch the field. Knowing that, expect Hokies DC Bud Foster to have his troops creep up a couple steps closer to the line of scrimmage which figures to positively enhance their already aggressive nature. Total here of 45.5 looks to be value laden just off of comparative score, common sense logic. BC was blown out by Notre Dame here in Chestnut Hill but managed to score 20 against them en-route to a final game total of 69. Versus Clemson’s defense on the road they were again beaten soundly but only managed to score seven points in a game that totaled 41. With Virginia Tech grading out overall somewhere in between Clemson ad Notre Dame, you can probably expect the final score to land inside the boundaries of 41-69. This contest only needs to yield five more points than the Clemson game did which opens the door wide enough to play over the total. Percentages look to be well in favor of this game climbing above the current total.