Colorado +7 vs. Arizona State O/U 147
Pretty interesting to see 11-7 Stanford laying -9 vs. 2-16 California and then 8-10 Arizona State laying -7 vs. 8-10 Colorado. The Sun Devils' statistical profile (+0.02 points per possession) within the PAC-12 is a tad stronger than 8-10. And certainly stronger than that of Colorado (-0.05 ppp). But in watching both squads and looking at this matchup through the lense of a "one game" scenario, I have a difficult time seeing seven points worth of difference. The Buffaloes won the first meeting in Boulder, 90-81 in overtime. In the second meeting, ASU returned the favor with an 80-66 win in Tempe. It should be noted that Colorado led that game with 10 minutes to go but simply wore down; likely a result from playing the dreaded second game of a Thursday-Saturday PAC-12 road trip. Overall, Arizona State's power rating is still boosted by one of the best non-conference showings in the country thanks to wins over Xavier and Kansas. But over the course of an 18-game conference slate, the Sun Devils were far from dominant. Of their eight victories, three came against bottom feeders Cal and Washington State. They also slipped past Utah by three, Oregon State by two and USC by two. And they caught UCLA in an optimal spot as the Bruins beat Arizona in Tucson on a Thursday before losing in Tempe on Saturday, 88-79. Seven of Colorado's 10 PAC-12 losses came by double-digits but the Buffs also showed capable with a sweep of UCLA and a home win over Arizona. With four spread covers in 18 tries in PAC-12 play, Arizona State has consistently been overvalued in the betting markets. On a neutral floor, I'm comfortable taking the points with an underdog that while flawed, should be able to stick around.