Baltimore (Tillman) at Los Angeles (Barria) -185 O/U 9.5
Rare situation for Baltimore's Chris Tillman who enters tonight's matchup vs. the Angels off not only a quality start but also a win. Between his last win which came on May 7, 2017 and last Friday's victory over the Tigers, Tillman had allowed exactly 100 earned runs over 105.1 innings. This season's draw has been a tough one with the veteran righty facing Houston, New York, and Boston all on the road as well as Cleveland. But there are no indications that sustained success is on the horizon, even against more favorable opponents in pitcher friendly parks. In fact, Tillman's average fastball against the Tigers was only 88 MPH; the lowest mark of his 10-year career. Twenty-one-year-old Jaime Barria projects to be part of the Angels' rotation in the future. The righty isn't overpowering but flashed a sub-3.00 ERA over three minor league levels last year and got the win in his debut at Texas going five innings and allowed only one run. He was however smacked around in his second outing (2 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER vs. San Francisco) and was sent back down to Triple-A. Both bullpens grade out as average at best and have already allowed a combined 12 earned runs the first two games of the series. We also have an "over" umpire with Brian Gorman 28-18-1 O/U since 2016. Five of his six games behind this dish this season have hit double-digit runs. The markets really took a whack at this one; bet up from 8.5 to 9.5. I'd recommend seeking out a 9 or waiting for buyback with a wager on the over.