Oregon vs Montana State Prediction – The Betting Preview
The Goldsheet provides their Oregon vs Montana State betting analysis with tip off from Matthew Knight Arena.
Both teams sit 1-1 heading in with each averaging under 70 ppg this season with the Ducks coming off a loss in which they were 15.5-point favorites!
Check out our College Basketball Free Picks page for betting thoughts from some of the country’s top handicappers.
Oregon vs Montana State Prediction – The Best Odds Available Now
Tuesday, November 15 | College Basketball Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Oregon Ducks -11 vs Montana State Bobcats |
Total: | 138 Points |
Game Time: | 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT |
Arena: | Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, OR (Odds Above by DraftKings) |
TV: | Pac 12 Oregon |
Oregon vs Montana State Prediction – The Game Analysis
Last season’s Big Sky champions, Montana State, travel to Eugene to close out a three-game roadtrip against the Ducks.
Oregon is coming off a disappointing 69-56 home loss to UC-Irvine as head coach Dana Altman is still figuring out his rotation.
We played against Montana State in the Bobcats’ last game with Long Beach State.
Montana State started the game 5-for-5 from three-point range and shot 27 free throws in that contest. Neither of those are likely to repeat on Tuesday night.
Stepping Up in Class
This is a unique scheduling spot for the Bobcats.
While several lower-tier schools look to earn paydays by playing larger teams in their non-conference schedule, Montana State has not done that under the leadership of Danny Sprinkle.
Time to Play Someone Decent for Montana State
In 2020, the Bobcats did not play a single Power 5 school. In 2021, they played at Washington State, and that was the only team they played inside KenPom’s top-100 that season.
Last year, they opened the season at Colorado and that was the only Power 5 school they played.
Because these games are so rare for the Bobcats, we expect to see a strong effort. In 2021 they beat UNLV in Las Vegas.
Last year they took Colorado to overtime and lost by three at New Mexico. So when Montana State has stepped up in class, they have done pretty well.
Getting Their Ducks in a Row
Dana Altman earns his paycheck in March, not November. In 2015, Oregon started 3-2 and went to the Pac-12 championship game and NCAA Tournament.
In 2016 they lost to UNLV and Boise State in the non-conference slate then went to the Elite Eight. In 2017, they started 2-2 and went to the Final Four. In 2019 they started 4-3 and went to the Sweet Sixteen. Last year they started 3-3.
Not Totally Shocking for the Ducks
So Friday’s loss to UC-Irvine should not come as a complete shock. The Ducks opened the season missing four scholarship players because of preseason injuries.
Altman uses the non-conference slate to tinker with his rotations and playbook because he knows that games in February and March are more meaningful.
Oregon vs Montana State Prediction
So, for the Oregon vs Montana State prediction, we’re taking a look at total points.
This total of 140.5 is a few ticks too high, in our opinion. Here’s where Oregon has finished in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric over the last seven seasons: 234, 215, 215, 328, 319, 226 and 123.
Unlike the football team that plays at Autzen Stadium, the basketball Ducks have no interest in playing up-tempo basketball.
Can These Teams Score?
Montana State’s opening two games featured 61 and 67 possessions, so the Bobcats certainly aren’t looking to run either.
Montana State has finished outside the top-150 in KenPom’s pace metrics in all three seasons under Coach Sprinkle.
Following Oregon’s loss to Irvine, we expect Altman to turn up the defensive intensity in this one. The defense should be there on both sides, and we’re not convinced the Ducks have the shot makers to really pull away in this one.
This total is too high. Play the under. See below for the top-notch Oregon vs Montana State prediction.
Ultimate Oregon vs Montana State Prediction: Under 138 Points Scored
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College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game.
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