American League Cy Young Early Season Update and Odds
Read American League Cy Young pitcher analysis from Sportsmemo MLB handicapper JM Sports as he provides updates on all the pitchers considered favorites to walk away with the AL Cy Young at the end of the season. This includes players like Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Shohei Ohtani. Stay up-to-date with the current odds from DraftKings!
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American League Pitchers | AL Cy Young Odds Updated on Friday, April 29 |
---|---|
Shane Bieber | +700 |
Justin Verlander | +800 |
Gerrit Cole | +800 |
Dylan Cease | +1000 |
Shohei Ohtani | +1100 |
Kevin Gausman | +1300 |
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American League Cy Young Analysis
When we look at the list of the current top candidates for the AL Cy Young, we notice one name missing from the list and that is Robbie Ray, last season’s AL Cy Young winner isn’t currently in the top 6 in the rankings, but former winners Shane Bieber and Justin Verlander atop the current list.
Shane Bieber
Bieber has been off to a rough start this year after taking the crown in 2020. The Guardians are 2-2 is his 4 starts, and while Bieber allowed just 2 hits in each of his first two starts, he now ranks outside the top 20 (out of qualifying pitchers) in ERA and K/9 innings.
Bieber has taken some speed off of his fastball this year, in order to attempt to increase the control, while he has seemingly increased his control as intended, he currently ranks 22nd in ERA with a 2.82 and he ranks just 28th with 8.9 strikeouts per 9 innings.
Where the control has come into play is the fact that he has been able to keep his WHIP under 1.00, with the 12th best WHIP in the league at 0.90.
Justin Verlander
Next up, Justin Verlander, the only pitcher in the top 6 in the AL to possess multiple Cy Young trophies in his career, and now he attempts to capture his 3rd title.
Verlander is one of the few that has won multiple Cy Young’s with multiple teams after winning the crown in 2011 with Detroit, and taking it home again in 2019 with the Astros. Not only has Verlander settled in with the Astros, but he is back towards prime form.
Even though the Astros are just 2-2 in his 4 starts, mainly due to the fact that Houston is putting up just 3 runs per game in his 4 starts, he is still among the league leaders in multiple categories.
Verlander hasn’t allowed more then 4 hits in a single start this season, and even though over 20% of the hits he has given up have been home runs, his ERA is still just 1.73 (12th in the league) and he possesses the best WHIP in the league among qualifying pitchers at 0.69!
If Houston’s offense can pick things up, and Verlander continues his trends, this could be another year that we see Houston in contention for a run in the postseason and one of their pitchers atop the odds chart in the Cy Young race.
Gerrit Cole
It may surprise people that Gerrit Cole has yet to win a Cy Young award in his career, but after falling just short of Robbie Ray last season, he looks to be back with a vengeance.
The Yankees have walked away with the win in 3 out of his 4 starts, even with an ERA of 4.00. Cole got off to a shaky start that did some damage to his statistics, allowing 8 ER in 11.1 IP in hist first 3 starts, allowing 3 home runs and walking 7 batters.
Yet, in his most recent start, we saw the Cole that finished in contention last season for the Cy Young. He took the mound against Cleveland and went 6 2/3 innings, allowing just 4 hits without giving up an earned run, walking just 1 batter and striking out 9.
If Cole continues his trends from the game against the Guardians, then there is still hope for his Cy Young chase, but many more starts like his first 3, and we may see his name start to slip.
Dylan Cease
Currently, the AL Central is the worst division in baseball, with 4 teams under .500 at this point, yet the division finds itself with 2 of the top 4 candidates in the AL to walk away with the Cy Young. Shane Bieber was obviously atop the list, but now we get to Dylan Cease who sits 4th currently on the list.
Chicago has won the game in 3 of his 4 starts so far this season and in all 3 of the wins, Cease allowed 2 or less earned runs, 3 or less hits and struck out 8 or more per start, but he has yet to surpass 6 innings in a start.
While those stats are impressive, his 4th start has skewed the rankings, he currently sits 8th in strikeouts per 9 innings, fanning 11.5 batters per 9 on average, but his 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP puts him outside the top 25 out of qualifying pitchers in both categories.
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani is one of the first players in a long time that has a shot to win both the Cy Young and the MVP, especially when you look at the fact that he has impressive statistics as a pitcher and a consistent batter.
Although, the fact that we are impressed by the two-way player, may lend a bias that he automatically deserves to be on the MVP candidates list. While his abilities are impressive, both his hitting and his pitching have taken a step in the wrong direction this season.
He has proven that he has the ability to strikeout batters yet again, ranking #2 in the MLB with 14 strikeouts per 9 innings on average, but his ERA has sky rocketed up to 4.19 and posting a WHIP of 1.09. In his first two starts this season, Ohtani allowed 7 ER on 10 hits in just 8 1/3 innings, even though he managed to strikeout 14 batters and walk just 2.
Although we have seen an improvement since, in his two most recent starts, he allowed just 6 hits for 2 earned runs in 11 innings, and continued his impressive strikeout numbers, shutting down 16 batters on strikes and again walking just 2 combined hitters.
The eyes have been on his pitching, since his bat has seemed to cool down this off-season, when you look at his last 2 starts he was one of the best pitchers in the league, but can he keep it up and improve his season stats?
Kevin Gausman
Finally, 6th on the list is the lone newcomer that cracked the top 6, Kevin Gausman made a case for himself last season in San Francisco, and he continues to keep his name in the mix in the American League as a new member of the Blue Jays pitching staff.
Toronto is 3-1 in his 4 starts this season, and impressively, Gausman has yet to allow a walk or a home run in his 4 starts with Toronto.
As he settled in with his new team in the first game he got off to a shaky start, giving up 3 runs in 5 innings on 8 hits while striking out just 5 batters.
Yet in his 3 starts since, he has allowed just 3 earned runs on 17 hits, pitching 19 2/3 innings and striking out 26 batters, much closer to the San Francisco pitcher we saw last season. Those 3 most recent starts have helped him lower his ERA to 2.19 (14th in the league), while propelling him into the top 10 in K/9 innings, fanning over 11 batters on average.
The one area of improvement seems to be the multitude of hits that he allows, when those pile up in a single start, it is hard for anyone to limit the runs put across the plate, even if they are just singles strung together, his WHIP is just over 1, sitting at 1.01 (25th in the league).
Regardless, if he pitches as he has as of late, he could be in the conversation for the AL Cy Young this season, in his first season parting ways with the National League.
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