2022 MLB Regular Season Home Run Leader Odds and Betting Preview
After a nail biting offseason that didn’t see a clear start to the 2022 season, the MLB season is officially back!
Not only is it back but we’re coming off a season that saw over 5,900 total home runs hit by players which is 3rd most in the past 10 years.
Although no player had 50 home runs we saw five different players hit 42 or more long balls. That list is surprisingly headed by Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez who led the MLB with 121 RBIs as well.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. tied him with 48 while also hitting .311 and adding 101 RBIs. All in all, of the top 10 home run hitters last season, only two of them came from the National League, San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and Braves/Marlins outfielder Adam Duvall.
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2022 MLB Home Run Leader | Odds Updated on Tuesday, March 29 |
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Vlad Guerrero Jr. | +700 |
Pete Alonso | +1100 |
Aaron Judge | +1200 |
Salvador Perez | +1300 |
Matt Olson | +1300 |
Joey Gallo | +1400 |
Mike Trout | +1400 |
Shohei Ohtani | +1500 |
Rafael Devers | +1500 |
Franmil Reyes | +1600 |
Yordan Alvarez | +1700 |
Juan Soto | +1800 |
Giancarlo Stanton | +1800 |
Kris Bryant | +2000 |
Bryce Harper | +2000 |
Tyler O’Neill | +2500 |
Ronald Acuna Jr. | +2500 |
Kyle Schwarber | +2500 |
Fernando Tatis Jr. | +2500 |
Austin Riley | +2500 |
Jose Abreu | +3000 |
Miguel Sano | +3000 |
Marcus Semien | +3000 |
Manny Machado | +3000 |
Jose Ramirez | +3000 |
Jorge Soler | +3000 |
Eloy Jimenez | +3000 |
George Springer | +3500 |
Byron Buxton | +3500 |
Teoscar Hernandez | +4000 |
Max Muncy | +4000 |
Adam Duvall | +4000 |
Luke Voit | +4000 |
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MLB Home Run Leader Prediction and Analysis
As it stands right now, the odds on favorite to win the Home Run Title is Guerrero Jr. but will he make it two years in a row either tying or winning the title? Let’s break down the odds and see where we can win some money.
MLB Home Run Leader: Favorite to Bet
It would be too easy to sit here and write about how Guerrero Jr. is just going to do his thing again while he hits 45-50 home runs, but I have to figure pitchers are going to be on to him this year, walking him much more than the 86 he accumulated last season.
He strikes out much less than the other home run leaders from last season letting us know he’s willing to be patient at the plate.
This leads me to Yankees first baseman Joey Gallo who is known for striking out but is also known for hitting the longball and what better stadium for a guy who pulls to right field than Yankee Stadium.
The short porch in right field makes for a short distance to hit where deep fly balls turn into home runs and Gallo is ready to eat.
He knows this is the last season the shift will be allowed and in seasons to follow he may be encouraged by managers and coaches to tone the home run hitting down and take easy singles when he can get them.
Therefore, I can see a season here where Gallo has the capability to crush 45+ home runs but that also may come with a season filled by 200+ strikeouts again if you’re ready to watch that.
So, at +1400 with an everyday role on the Yankees you get great value here as there are possibilities every time he’s in the lineup at Yankee Stadium, he can crush a couple dingers, regardless if he’s been struggling or not heading into that game.
Prediction: Joey Gallo +1400
MLB Home Run Leader: Sleeper to Bet
For my sleeper I’m looking at players outside the top 15 odds on favorites to win the Home Run Title which leads me to Ronald Acuña Jr. who sits at +2500 to win the crown.
Acuña’s season was cut short last year during the Braves World Series run and he feels he has a major chip on his shoulder as the team was able to win the World Series without his services for the last 3-4 months.
He had 24 home runs in 297 at-bats before his injury and if you translate that to a full season of play, Acuña accumulates 600+ at-bats and he’s right around 48-50 home runs which is what the leader(s) hit last season.
He feels he has the capability to win National League MVP and a home run title would certainly help his cause here.
We’ve also seen Acuña in training camp, fully recovered from injury, blasting balls out of the park telling everyone “I’m back!”.
Look for him to get it going early and often for the Braves. I don’t see a full healthy season from Acuña where he doesn’t generate 40-50 long balls and a shot at the Home Run Title.
Prediction: Ronald Acuña Jr. +2500
Spring Training Betting Tips
Can you make money betting on Spring Training baseball? Yes! Kelly Stewart sits down with WagerTalk handicapper Bryan Leonard and VSIN sports betting analyst Adam Burke to discuss some spring training betting tips to help you build a bankroll before Opening Day.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the run spreads, totals and betting percentages for all games across the MLB and international leagues from your desktop or phone.
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