NL Cy Young Updated Odds and Analysis
The NL Cy Young race is getting tight and is currently a three man race between Corbin Burnes, Max Scherzer and Carlos Rondon. Read NL Cy Young candidate odds and analysis by Sportsmemo MLB handicapper JM Sports! Stay up-to-date with the current odds from DraftKings!
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National League Pitchers | NL Cy Young Odds Updated on Thursday, May 19 |
---|---|
Corbin Burnes | +475 |
Max Scherzer | +475 |
Carlos Rondon | +700 |
Pablo Lopez | +1300 |
Walker Buehler | +1400 |
Joe Musgrove | +1800 |
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Corbin Burnes
The National League has an early tie among the top rankings, and with those two pitchers, it looks like if things continue, one way or another, history is set to repeat itself.
Corbin Burnes (+475) looks to repeat history rather quickly, he walked away with the NL Cy Young last season, and while it is early, he again sits atop the rankings in the National League.
While quality starts may not be the most important stat as a pitcher, it does say something that Burnes is just 1 of 4 pitchers in the league that have amounted quality starts in over 75% of their starts this season, obtaining these quality starts in 6 of his 7 attempts on the mound so far this season (T-#2 in the league).
While the Brewers are just 3-4 in his 7 starts, the team still sits in 1st place in the NL Central with a record of 23-14 and up 2.5 games on 2nd place St. Louis.
In the stats that are seemingly more important among pitchers, Burnes ranks in the top 10 in nearly all of them, posting impressive stats across the board regardless of his record.
He ranks 9th in the MLB in ERA with an astounding 1.77, 6th in K/9 fanning 11.2 batters on average in a 9 inning span, and a 0.79 WHIP, the 2nd best in the majors. His stats prove his skill, but his WAR proves his importance ranking 7th at +1.7 wins above their replacement.
Max Scherzer
Mad Max yet again, finds himself at the top of the list (or at least tied atop the list) early in this season. Even though he has found himself on another new team this year, he looks like the same old Scherzer that we are accustomed to. Scherzer and Verlander are the only two pitchers (in the top 6 odds currently of either conference) that have already won the Cy Young award more than once in their career.
Scherzer is also in select company joining, Gaylord Perry, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Roy Halladay as the only pitchers to win a Cy Young award in both the AL and the NL.
Although now he may have his eyes set on yet another major accomplishment, as Scherzer is on the hunt to be just the 2nd pitcher in history to win a Cy Young for 3 different teams.
He has been a major part of the New York Mets drastic improvement this season, helping lift the team to a 24-14 record currently, the best record in the National League outside of the NL West division.
The team has won 5 of his 7 starts, and even though the Mets went his first 5 starts, followed by losses in his most recent 2 starts, that hasn’t altered his stats or rankings much on the season.
Scherzer has walked away with a win in the decision in 4 of his 7 starts (3rd among pitchers) but has amounted 5 quality starts in those 7 attempts (5th most).
His ERA is 2.66, which keeps him in the top 20 in that column, but his 11.3 K/9 (5th) and 0.91 WHIP (7th) are the most astounding numbers on his stat line, limiting base runners and fanning batters at a rate with the best of the best this season.
Carlos Rondon
There aren’t too many situations where a team like San Francisco can possess a pitcher like Kevin Gausman, who was fighting for a Cy Young last season, lose him to free agency, and then sign a replacement like Carlos Rodon that can basically pick up right where Gausman left off.
Rodon has come in is his first season with the Giants and has found himself 3rd in the early Cy Young odds in the National League at (+700).
He has helped San Francisco achieve their current 22-14 record, and while it is 3rd in the NL West, they are just 2.5 GB of Los Angeles and found themselves among the top 2 teams in the early Wild Card chase.
The Giants are 4-3 in his 7 starts, but he has received the win in all 4 of those starts (3rd most among pitchers) and has has impressive outings in all 4 of those starts, creating quality start opportunities in those 4 outings.
His ERA currently sits at 3.49, but just as many of these other pitchers are, Rodon ranks near the top in K/9, striking out 13 batters on average in a 9 inning span (3rd best among qualifying pitchers). Rodon has also been impressive when it comes to his WHIP, and limiting base runners, disregard the fact that he ranks 29th, a 1.11 WHIP is still impressive.
This may be his first season with the Giants but he has quickly proven his dominance and importance with his new team post a +0.8 WAR.
Pablo Lopez
In the last release of this article I felt the need to throw in Pablo Lopez as an honorable mention, even though he wasn’t ranked in the top of the National League Cy Young rankings, due solely to the stat line that he was producing, even on a sub-par Marlins team.
Now Miami is 17-19, and while they currently possess a losing record, they still rank 2nd in the NL Central and 6 GB of the New York Mets and Pablo Lopez now ranks 4th in the odds for the Cy Young (+1300).
Nearly 30% of the teams wins have came when Lopez was on the mound and for good reason as they are 5-2 with him on the mound. Lopez leads the league in ERA with a mind-boggling 1.05 and has been one of the most essential pieces to any pitching staff in the league with a WAR of +2.3, which also ranks atop the list among pitchers.
An ERA of this caliber stems from an all-around pitcher, someone that is striking out 9.6 batters per 9 innings on average (17th in the league) and a pitcher that has posted the 3rd best WHIP in the league at 0.81!
It doesn’t matter what team you are on, when you are pitching at this level, you will draw the attention, Lopez’s stats caught my attention early in the season, but the fact that he has continued these trends is what has secured Lopez a spot in the top 6 in the NL Cy Young rankings as he looks to be the first pitcher to win a Cy Young in a Miami (or Florida Marlins) uniform.
Walker Buehler
Coming in 5th in the current odds is the “current ace” of the top team in the National League in Walker Buehler (+1400). I say current because of the up and down play of Clayton Kershaw (due mainly to injury), but none-the-less, with Buehler on the mound, the Dodgers are 5-2 which has helped lift them to the best record in the National League at 24-12, and leading the NL West, the best division in baseball.
This is the only division in baseball that has 3 teams winning over 60% of their games, but there is a reason the Dodgers are atop the rankings. Buehler ranks 3rd in the league with 4 wins, but while his other stats are impressive, it is hard to find a stat that stands out among the competition.
He has kept his ERA below 3.00 at 2.81 (24th in the league), striking out 7.6 batters per 9 innings on average (38th in the league) and posting a 1.18 WHIP (36th in the league).
All these stats are essential to a team that is fighting for the top seed in the postseason, and are unbelievable when you think about the fact that Los Angeles has a pitching staff that goes well beyond, Buehler, but while these are impressive, he may even need to improve these numbers to increase his chance to walk away with the Cy Young and bring the Dodgers their first Cy Young since 2014.
Jose Ramirez
Rounding out the list is the 3rd pitcher from the NL West, which should come as no surprise with the success coming out of that division.
Joe Musgrove and the San Diego Padres have accumulated a record of 23-13, 2nd in the NL West, just 1.5 GB of the Dodgers, who currently have the best record in the National League.
Musgrove has the 3rd most wins in the league current all 4, but he is the only pitcher on this list that has yet to contribute an overall loss in his starts. Musgrove has been a huge part of that 23-13 record, seeing as San Diego has won all 7 games that started with Musgrove on the mound.
He has an ERA of just 2.20 (13th best) but his 0.93 WHIP is 9th in the majors among qualifying pitchers. He has struck out 9.4 batters per 9 innings, putting him at #20 in the MLB and his WAR of +0.7 ranks 71st among pitchers, yet San Diego’s 7-0 record in his starts proves his importance to this team.
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