Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Sportsmemo MLB handicapper Eric Pauly gives his Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates betting analysis for Thursday, June 30. The Pirates are third in the NL Central sitting 13 games back of the Brewers and are looking to make up some ground.
| Thursday, June 30 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Milwaukee Brewers -125 at Pittsburgh Pirates +112 |
| Runline: | Brewers -1.5 (+135) / Pirates +1.5 (-155) |
| Total: | 8.5 Runs (Over -120 / Under +100) |
| Game Time: | 7:05pm ET / 4:05pm PT |
| Where: | PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA |
| Weather: | 90 Degrees / Clear |
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Analysis
On Thursday night, the Brewers and the Pirates face off for the first game of a four-game series. The Brewers are coming off a 2-0 series win against the Rays in Tampa Bay and the Pirates are coming off a 2-1 series loss against the Nationals in D.C.
The Brewers lead the season series 6-0 and they are -125 road favorites, the run line is 1.5, and the total is set at 9 runs.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
Milwaukee is 44-33 this season and they have held down first place in the NL Central for a majority of the year. The Brewers are 25-18 on the road and they are 23-37 covering the run line as a favorite.
The Brewers are heating up – they are 7-3 in their last 10 games – and they are looking for their 7th straight win against the Pirates.
Adrian Houser will make the start for the Brewers tonight in Pittsburgh. Houser is 4-8 on the year with a 4.50 ERA, a 3.86 FIP, and a 1.45 WHIP. Milwaukee is 1-3 in his last four starts and he has gone 16.2 innings allowing 12 runs and 21 hits over his last three starts.
Houser has a 5.50 ERA on the road this season with a 1.60 WHIP and a 4.00 FIP. The Pirates have a .674 team OPS at home and a .660 OPS against righties.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pirates are one of the worst teams in baseball but they have played some fun baseball as of late. Pittsburgh is 4-6 in their last 10 games but they have outscored opponents by three runs during this stretch.
The Pirates are 30-45 on the season and they are 17-20 at home. The Pirates are 30-32 covering the spread as an underdog this year.
JT Brubaker will make the start for Pittsburgh tonight at home. Brubaker is 1-7 with a 4.14 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 4.09 FIP. The Pirates have won just one of his last five starts, and over his last three starts, Brubaker has allowed five runs on 22 hits over 17.1 innings of work.
Brubaker faced the Brewers on 4/19 and allowed two runs on four hits in five innings in a loss. Brubaker has a 4.06 ERA at home, a 5.13 FIP, and a 1.45 WHIP. The Brewers have a .704 OPS on the road and a .736 OPS against righties.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
This line makes no sense to me. The Brewers, who are 6-0 against the Pirates, are just -125 favorites? I have this game priced at MIL -165, but considering how far off I am compared to the market, I am skeptical.
I am going to take the Pirates on the moneyline, but I am curious to see if this was total mispricing by me or the sportsbooks. Today, regardless of the outcome, will be a learning experience.
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline +112
Interested in placing a bet on Thursday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates NL Central clash? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
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First Pitch | MLB Betting Preview for Thursday, June 30
Join Drew Martin and a rotating panel of guests for First Pitch as we break down the daily baseball slate from a betting perspective every weekday at 1:45pm ET / 1:45am PT for First Pitch discussing the MLB betting slate.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgmClGKJL_I[/embedyt]
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Sportsmemo’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the MLB moneylines, run lines and betting percentages for all of Thursday’s baseball games, including this Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates NL Central showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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