New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview
Sportsmemo MLB handicapper Eric Pauly offers his New York Mets vs Miami Marlins betting preview for Thursday, July 7. New York has won five of the first seven games between these NL East rivals this season.
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Thursday, July 7 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
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Moneyline: | New York Mets -165 vs Miami Marlins +140 |
Runline: | Mets -1.5 (+115) / Marlins +1.5 (-135) |
Total: | 8 Runs (Over -115 / Under -105) |
Game Time: | 7:10pm ET / 4:10pm PT |
Where: | Citi Field in New York |
Weather: | 79* with Moderate Winds Blowing from Right to Left. |
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Analysis
On Thursday night, the Miami Marlins travel to New York to take on the Mets in the first game of a four-game series. The Marlins are coming off a series split with the Angels at home and the Mets are coming off a 2-1 series win against the Reds in Cincinnati. The Mets have a 5-2 lead over the Marlins for the season series.
Swimming Upstream
The Marlins have been a .500 ball club all season long, and they are looking to gain ground in the NL East standings. Miami is 39-41 and they are 11 games behind the Mets for first place. Miami is 7-3 in their last 10 games, they are 19-24 on the road, and they are 29-18 covering the run line as an underdog this season.
Lefty Daniel Castano will make the start for the Marlins tonight at Citi Field. Castano is 1-1 on the season in four starts with a 2.42 ERA, a 4.61 FIP, and a 1.35 WHIP. Castano started against the Mets at home on 6/26 and allowed two runs on five hits over seven innings in a Marlins win.
Castano has pitched just 26 innings this season, and over 11.2 innings on the road, Castano has a .77 ERA, a 4.48 FIP, and a 1.11 WHIP. The Mets have a team OPS of .727 at home this season and an OPS of .696 against lefties.
Meet the Mets
The Mets are still one of the best teams in baseball, but they had a tough time getting to the Reds in their last series. The Mets won last night, but five of their runs came in the top of the 10th inning. New York is 51-31, 28-13 at home, and 33-26 covering the run line as a favorite. The Mets are 5-5 in their last 10 games and they have been outscored by two runs.
Trevor Williams will make his eighth start of the season for the Mets tonight at home. Williams is 1-5 with a 4.34 ERA, a 4.82 FIP, and a 1.34 WHIP. Williams, primarily a reliever, has not faced the Marlins at all this season. In his last two starts, Williams has allowed eight runs on nine hits over just 7.2 innings of work.
At home, Williams has a 3.74 ERA, a 4.31 FIP, and a 1.34 WHIP. The Marlins have a .670 team OPS on the road and a .729 OPS against righties this season.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction
The Mets have seen Castano once already this season, so I expect them to fare better this time around. The Marlins are not as good on the road as they are at home, but they have been playing good baseball the past two weeks.
This is a tough game to call with neither pitcher being a stud and both offenses being in a lull, but I anticipate the Mets to jump out on Castano.
Recommendation: Mets First Five MoneyLine
Interested in placing a bet on Thursday’s New York Mets vs Miami Marlins NL East clash? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
Daily MLB Game Previews and Predictions
See all of the daily MLB predictions and picks by WagerTalk and Sportsmemo handicappers to assist you in betting. We breakdown various games from a betting perspective all across the league. View all of our game previews using the links below!
First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Thursday, July 7
Join Drew Martin and a rotating panel of guests for First Pitch as we break down the daily baseball slate from a betting perspective. Join WagerTalk’s team of MLB betting experts every weekday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT for First Pitch as we discuss the baseball betting slate.
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WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
Sportsmemo’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the MLB moneylines, run lines and betting percentages for all of Thursday’s baseball games, including this New York Mets vs Miami Marlins showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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