Phillies vs Braves Betting Pick: The Preview
Sportsmemo MLB handicapper Eric Pauly offers his analysis of Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves clash at Citizens Bank Park. The Braves and Phillies sit second and third in the NL East standings heading into their 4-game series kicking off tonight.
Thursday, September 22 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
---|---|
Moneyline: | Philadelphia Phillies +130 vs Atlanta Braves -155 |
Runline: | Phillies +1.5 (-130) / Braves -1.5 (+110) |
Total: | 7.5 Runs (Over -110 / Under -110) |
Game Time: | 7:15pm ET / 4:15pm PT |
Where: | Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA |
Weather: | 65 Degrees / Clear |
Phillies vs Braves Analysis
On Thursday night, the Braves and the Phillies face off for a crucial NL East series. The Braves are coming off a 2-1 series win against the Nationals and the Phillies are coming off a 1-1 series split with the Blue Jays.
This matchup has serious postseason implications. The Braves lead the season series over the Phillies 9-6 and this is the last four times these teams play this season. For this matchup, the Braves are -145 road favorites, the run line is 1.5, and the total is 7.5 runs.
Braves in NL East Battle
The Braves are a shoo-in to make the postseason, but what seed they will have is the question. Atlanta is one game back in the NL East and they have a solid lead in the NL Wild Card.
The Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games, they are 93-56 on the season, 41-30 on the road, and 62-57 on the run line as a favorite.
Max Fried will take the bump for the Braves tonight in Philly. On the season, Fried is 13-6 with a 2.52 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 2.78 FIP. Fried’s last start was against the Phillies and this will be his fourth time facing them this year.
In his last start against Philadelphia in Philadelphia, Fried allowed two runs on four hits in six innings of work. On the road this season, Fried has a 2.60 ERA, a .206 batting average against, a .283 slugging percentage against, a 2.35 FIP, and a .85 WHIP. The Braves are 7-4 on the moneyline in Fried’s road starts this season.
Phillies Fight On
The Phillies got a huge win last night, but they need to step up their game if they want to make the postseason. The Phillies have a slight lead in the NL Wild Card, and the only way to keep it up is simply to win. The Phillies are 81-67 on the season, 45-32 at home, and 29-19 covering the run line as an underdog.
Ranger Suarez will make the start for the Phillies tonight at home. On the season. Suarez is 9-5 with a 3.53 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 3.72 FIP. This will be the fifth time Suarez faces the Braves this season.
His last start was against the Braves in Atlanta and he allowed one run on two hits in six innings of work. At home this season, Suarez has a 4.70 ERA, a .277 batting average against, a .424 slugging percentage against, a 4.12 FIP, and a 1.55 WHIP. The Phillies are 7-5 in Suarez’s road starts this season despite his splits being worse at home.
Phillies vs Braves Prediction
This is a tough game to handicap. My numbers have the Braves on the moneyline, while my projections also have the Phillies on the run line being a good bet as well.
However, based on the best available pricing at the moment, I will have to ride the Phillies +1.5 at the price of -135.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 -130
Interested in placing a bet on Thursday’s Phillies vs Braves NL East showdown? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 risk-free bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Thursday, September 22
Join Drew Martin and a rotating panel of guests for First Pitch as we break down the daily baseball slate from a betting perspective. Join WagerTalk’s team of MLB betting experts every weekday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT for First Pitch as we discuss the baseball betting slate.
**************************************************
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!