NBA Playoffs Series Preview: Warriors vs Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports gives his series betting preview on the Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Western Conference Final. Golden State finished third in the West with a 53-29 record. Dallas finished fourth at 52-30.
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Series Winner | NBA Betting Notes (by DraftKings) |
---|---|
Win in 4 | Warriors (+700) Mavericks (+2500) |
Win in 5 | Warriors (+350) Mavericks (+1400) |
Win in 6 | Warriors (+450) Mavericks (+500) |
Win in 7 | Warriors (+300) Mavericks (+700) |
Warriors vs Mavericks Series Preview
There is no question that Golden State is the most experienced team in the playoffs in the last 10 years. The Warriors have made it to the Western Conference Finals 5 times already since 2010, and now they are set to appear in their 6th Conference Final series.
Not only have they made it to the Conference Finals 5 times, but they have won the series all 5 times dating back to 2010, en route to their 3 title runs in the given time frame.
Dallas may not be quite as familiar with the Western Conference Finals, but the biggest thing that they have in common in this situation with the Warriors, is the fact that they haven’t lost a series in the Western Conference Finals since 2010.
The Mavericks may have only reached the Conference Finals one time, but they took down Oklahoma City in 2011 in just 5 games before taking home the NBA Championship in the same season against Miami.
This game may truly come down to home court advantage, something that Golden State may not have anticipated coming into the Western Conference Finals with both of the top two teams in the West falling in the 2nd round this season.
Dallas took down the reigning conference champs, while Golden State took down Memphis in 6 games. Golden State has won all 6 games on their home court in the postseason, putting up 117 PPG and allowing just 102.8 PPG to the opposition!
While Dallas has won 5 straight games on their home court as well, they are 5-1 thus far in the postseason at home, but their key to winning those games has been their impressive defense. Dallas may be putting up just 105 PPG on their home court, but their opposition has been held to just 93.5 PPG!!
From the other side, both teams have posted a losing record on the road in the postseason. Golden State has put up a 2-3 record away from home, while the Warriors have still averaged 110.4 PPG on the road, yet again, defense has been the key to the West, seeing as their defense allowed 119 PPG to their opponents on the road!
Seeing a massive difference in the defensive efficiency of Golden State depending on the site of the game. The story has been the same in Dallas, or should I say away from Dallas, as the Mavericks are just 3-4 on the road during the playoffs so far.
Their offense has actually stepped up on the road, putting up 107 points on average, yet the defense has been drastically different as they have allowed 109.1 points to their opponents in the 7 games on the road.
Mavericks Preview
Dallas may be the underdog in the series as things currently stand, but it is hard to deny the fact that the best player left in the playoffs is playing for the underdog in Luka Doncic.
In the previous series against the reigning Western Conference Champions, it may have taken 7 games, but regardless, Doncic had a series that stands out.
From the individual aspect, Doncic put up more points than Devin Booker, who rated 4th in the MVP voting, he out-rebounded 7 foot tall DeAndre Ayton, posted more assists than Chris Paul and produced more steals than Mikal Bridges, who was the DPOY runner-up. Doncic did it all in the previous series, but the team has succeeded as a whole, constantly improving as the postseason has progressed.
Their offense has put up over 106 PPG, while shooting 45.3%, even though those two rank below the halfway mark in the postseason rankings, 10th and 9th respectively.
Yet, in aspects like 3PT shooting, where they are shooting 38.5% (3rd best out of all 16 teams in the playoffs), steals, creating 7.8 steals per game (6th out of 16 teams) and losing just 9.4 turnovers per game (2nd least of all 16 teams / includes the least steals lost of the 16 teams at 4.8 per game), they are absolutely dominating and ranking better than Golden State.
On the defensive side of the ball, Dallas has been impressive to say the least, and playing better in most of the major categories than the Warriors.
The Mavericks are allowing just 101.9 PPG (4th in the postseason), and while they are allowing opponents to shoot 46.1% (9th of 16 teams), they are holding their opponents to just 33.9% from beyond the arc (5th best) which will be essential when taking on this Warriors team.
In the 2nd half of the season, Dallas has been a completely different team. While they have seemingly always played this well against the Warriors, seeing as they have won 7 of the 9 match-ups in the last 3 seasons, including a 4-1 record at the Oracle Center and winning 5 of the last 6 in a row head-to-head!
Yet, against the rest of the teams in general, the Mavericks have constantly improved, in the 2nd half of the season they have posted a 9-2 record against teams that are winning 60-70% of their games and they are 10-5 against teams that are making 14+ 3 point shots.
When you look in an even smaller window, in the last 5 games, all of which were against the Phoenix Suns, a top 5 team in the regular season offensively, you see that they are 4-1.
Not only are they 4-1 against the defending Western Conference Champions in 5 consecutive games, they held that team to just 96.2 PPG in the last 5 games on 43.7% shooting.
If Dallas can do this against Chris Paul and Devin Booker, and continue the trends against the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, we could see a similar end to this series.
Warriors Preview
The best player currently still playing in the league doesn’t phase Golden State, experience is key and the bulk of this Warriors core took down LeBron James (at a slightly younger age) in the Finals 3 times, proving they have what it takes to shut down a superstar.
Their ability and willingness to rotate and switch on opponents creates a pressure that could limit this dynamic offense, closing out on 3PT shooting could change Max Kleber’s impressive 3PT shooting percentage (48%) and pose a different level of difficulty for Luka Doncic.
This team is deeper than it was during the “Durant Era”, headlined by the play of Jordan Poole, yet it isn’t limited there.
Although the injuries that the Warriors have incurred have proven an extra level of difficulty for the Warriors, testing their depth with the absences of Gary Payton II, Andre Iguodola and Otto Porter (who is currently questionable for game 1). Which speaks volumes for this team in terms of adaptability, which is a major factor in the postseason.
This Warriors offense has been the highest scoring team in the playoffs so far, averaging 114.2 PPG on 48.3% shooting (3rd best of the 16 teams) and shooting 37.7% from 3PT range (4th best). Even though they have frequented a shorter line-up at times, Golden State is still 6th in rebounds per game at 43.8.
Although while you would think the option for a smaller line-up would limit the turnovers and increase the ball-handling and passing, they have been one of the worst teams when it comes to turnovers, losing over 15 per game.
The defensive unit on the other hand hasn’t been able to limit the points put up against them, especially on the road, allowing 110.2 on average in total, but they have held their opponents to 44.3% shooting, the 3rd best among postseason defenses but allowing them to shoot 36.3% from beyond the arc.
Struggling in the departments that Dallas is thriving, opening the door to a chunk of points from beyond the arc.
This Warriors team may be 33-20 against teams with a winning record this season, but 15% of those games have came against the Mavericks, yet they are 19-7 on their home court. If they can continue that trend on their home court, that is all it takes to win the series, 4 games at home.
They are 12-6 on the season when playing against teams that are winning 60-70% of their games this season, but they have truly buckled down in the 2nd half of the year, winning 13 of their 18 games against teams with winning percentages between 60-70% over the last 2 seasons.
Although can they keep this up against a team that is consistently improving as the season and postseason progresses.
Warriors vs Mavericks Series Prediction
I foresee the first 6 games of this series going to the home team, stretching this out to a Game 7 yet again for the Mavericks, but it is hard to doubt the abilities of Doncic as I mentioned above, but his performances in elimination games is undeniable, if this gets down to a Game 7, I can’t bet against Luka.
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks Win 4-3 (+700)
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