NBA Playoffs Preview: Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets Prediction and Betting Preview
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports gives his betting preview on the Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets divisional series in the Western Conference. Boston finished second in the East with a 51-31 record. Brooklyn finished seventh at 44-38.
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Series Winner | NBA Betting Notes (by DraftKings) |
---|---|
Win in 4 | Celtics (+1200) Nets (+1300) |
Win in 5 | Celtics (+550) Nets (+800) |
Win in 6 | Celtics (+550) Nets (+350) |
Win in 7 | Celtics (+340) Nets (+500) |
Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets Preview
In recent seasons, the 2 vs. 7 match-up is definitely a one-sided affair with the 2 seed taking game 1 in 17 of the last 20 series, and winning those games by over 11 PPG on average, on top of a record of 44-7 since the 2012 season on their home court regardless of the game number.
The 2nd seed is also 12-4 on their home court after taking wins in consecutive regular season head-to-head match-ups, and they are 7-2 after 3 straight wins against their opponent prior to the postseason.
The higher seed in this series is also 8-3 since 2013 in the first game of the playoffs when coming off a win, but they are just 3-3 when the 7th seed is also coming off a win.
Not to mention the play-in game has proven to be a disadvantage, although it isn’t made to benefit the lower seeds, but a home team with a rest advantage in the playoffs is 44-13 dating back to the 2012 season.
This is added to the history of 7th seeds losing 22 of the 26 games on the road coming off a win. All of this leads to the facts, a #2 seed hasn’t lost a first round series since San Antonio took down Dallas in 2010. Out of the last 20 series, only four of them have even gone to seven games, while 7 of the 20 have gone to six games, while 45% of the series (9 of 20) have resulted in a first round sweep.
Nets Better on Road This Season
Brooklyn is coming into this postseason for the 4th consecutive year and for the 7th time since 2010, but they look to improve their winning percentage of 39.1% in those seven trips to the playoffs, which is the 2nd worst in the East (includes the play-in teams), only better than Charlotte.
Last season Brooklyn found themselves in the 2nd round for just the 2nd time dating back to that 2010 year, but this season they look to surpass that and make the Conference Finals for the 1st time since 2003!
Brooklyn has actually been a better team on the road this season posting a 24-17 record away from home, and just 20-21 in Brooklyn.
Although since the return of Kyrie, in the games he has played at home this season, the Nets are 4-2, so the tides may be turning.
The team continues to progress towards full strength, Brooklyn is optimistic that Ben Simmons could potentially return at some point in the this round of the playoffs, or at some point during the run if their season continues, but they will be without Joe Harris for the remainder of the year.
Overcoming Lack of Depth in Brooklyn
The Nets would welcome Simmons with open arms, while they have had glimmers of hope, they will take any benefit that they can get seeing as they ended the season as the 7th best team in the East.
When you look at their record a little deeper you can see where the help is needed, they are just 2-10 against teams that have won over 60% of their games this season and they are 5-18 against teams that are outscoring their opponents by three or more points, struggling against the top-tier opponents.
Their lack of depth has proven an issue, especially prior to Kyrie’s return this season as they are 4-8 off a win when playing with a rest disadvantage in comparison to their opponent. The Nets are also just 3-8 as a road dog after losing their previous match-up against their opponent.
Their potential has shown more after a big game, stringing together good showings, they are 11-6 on the road after putting up 115 or more points and 10-4 on the road following a win by five or more points, on top of that, they are also 23-6 following a game that they won but failed to cover.
Brooklyn has also had an impressive run against the Celtics specifically, even though they have lost 3 consecutive games against the Celtics, they are still 10-6 against Boston in the last 3 seasons.
Celtics Hope to Cash in on Home Court Advantage
After a fight to the finish Boston ended up finishing the season with the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference and are set to have home court advantage for a majority of the playoffs.
That is a huge benefit for the Celtics, when you look at their record this season, there is a drastic difference between their play at home and on the road.
Boston is the 2nd best team in the East at home, just a game behind Miami, winning over 68% of their home games, ending in a 28-13 record. Yet, on the road, Brooklyn actually has a better record on the road than the 2nd seeded Celtics, just barely surpassing the 56% marker with a 23-18 record on the road.
While playing at home has helped the Celtics, staying hot will also be essential, Boston is just 6-15 on the year as an underdog, avoiding top teams if at all possible could also help extend this season for the Celtics.
Boston Banking on Recent Rest
Boston has drastically benefited from being well rested, or at least rested more than their opponent this season, they are 11-5 this year when playing with a rest advantage, which includes eight straight wins overall, and a 9-1 record on the year when playing as a favorite with the rest advantage.
This Celtics team is coming off a big win to end the season, and that could be a good sign for this team heading into the postseason.
This year, Boston is 14-1 in the last 15 games as a favorite after putting up 120 or more points, and they have posted the same record as a favorite following a game where they shot over 50%, on top of a 8-1 record at home after shooting over 50%.
They are 8-3 as a home favorite after putting up 120 or more points and they are 15-4 when taking on teams that are shooting 46% or better in the second half of the season.
While Boston is obviously excited to be headed home for the playoffs, it has to be an added bonus that this Celtics team is 11-1 in the last two seasons in home games following three consecutive road games.
Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets Prediction
Injuries have been an issue for a multitude of teams this season, regardless of their postseason status. While Boston has dealt with the absence of their starting center, Robert Williams following knee surgery, Williams has progressed to participating in shooting drills.
The team is optimistic that he could return during the playoffs, although it doesn’t appear that the return will happen in this round of the playoffs. While Williams is a big piece to be without, it looks as though they will also be without Nik Stauskus and Juwan Morgan for at least game 1.
Brooklyn has played better at home with Kyrie Irving, and against a team like Boston that has struggled on the road, there is a chance that Brooklyn could legitimately make this a series and take the win in their home games.
I am still going with Boston to win the series, but I am going to give it 6 games.
Prediction: Boston Celtics 4-2 (+550)
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Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets Against the Spread Notes from GoldSheet
NBA Tip-Off Show
Join Joe Raineri and a rotating panel of professional handicappers for the NBA Tip-Off Show every Monday-Friday at 4:15pm ET / 1:15pm PT as we discuss the NBA Playoffs. Stay up-to-date on the latest NBA news, stats, analysis, and predictions with our panel of pro sports bettors as they preview NBA Playoff action, including this Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets series.
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