NBA Playoffs Preview: Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction and Betting Preview
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports gives his betting preview on the Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks conference semi-final in the Eastern Conference. Boston finished second in the East with a 51-31 record. Milwaukee finished third at 51-31.
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Series Winner | NBA Betting Notes (by DraftKings) |
---|---|
Win in 4 | Celtics (+800) Bucks (+2000) |
Win in 5 | Celtics (+350) Bucks (+1400) |
Win in 6 | Celtics (+425) Bucks (+550) |
Win in 7 | Celtics (+300) Bucks (+700) |
Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Preview
In the Eastern Conference, the #2 seed matching up against the #3 seed in the semifinals seems to be nearly a guarantee in recent memory. Since 2010, the 2 & 3 seed have matched up in 11 of the 12 seasons, with 2014 being the only exception.
The #2 seed has won the series in 8 of those 11 occasions, but the series haven’t been easy for either team. In 4 occasions the series went to 7 games (2 seed = 2-2), the series went to 6 games 3 times (2 seed = 2-1), while the series went to 5 games twice and resulted in a sweep twice (2 seed won all 4 of those series).
So for Milwaukee, it looks as though they are hoping for a series that last longer than 5 games. Although this two teams have a history of keeping things close, from a gambling aspect, Boston has covered all 9 games between these two teams in the last 3 years, but when it comes to winning the game straight up, the head-to-head record is split down the middle 5-5.
The biggest difference in this series could be the fact that Boston has home court advantage in this series thanks to a tie-breaker situation at the end of the regular season.
While the series is split in the last 3 years, Boston has won (and covered) all 4 games that they have played on their home court, while Milwaukee has won 4 of the 5 games in the Fiserv Forum in Wisconsin.
If that trend continues, and each team takes their home games, we could see yet another #2 vs. #3 match-up go the distance and come down to a decisive game 7.
Milwaukee Bucks Preview
Milwaukee comes into the Eastern Conference Semifinals as the 3rd seed, after taking down the Chicago Bulls in just 5 games. Through the first two games of the opening series Milwaukee found themselves in a 1-1 tie with Chicago, dropping game 2 on their home court.
Although as the series progressed, we saw why the Bucks ended up winning the whole thing last season. Milwaukee averaged nearly 110 PPG against the Bulls, shooting 47.1% and connecting on 38% of their shots from 3PT range.
They out-rebounded Chicago by nearly 8 rebounds per game, but they struggled immensely from the FT line, posting the worst FT% out of all 16 in the playoffs through the first round, shooting under 70%.
Regardless, they won the series in 5 games and their defense could be to thank for that result, holding Chicago to just 95.2 PPG on 40.4% shooting from the field, and holding the Bulls to just 28.3% shooting from 3PT range!
This is the 4th time that Milwaukee has advanced to the Eastern Conference Semifinals since 2010, but also the 4th consecutive season that they have found themselves advancing to the 2nd round.
Milwaukee has advanced beyond the semifinals in 2 of their previous 3 attempts, they took care of the #2 seed, Brooklyn last season in 7 games, and beat #4 seed Boston in 2019 in just 5 games. Their one failed attempt was 2020 when they lost to Miami in just 5 games, falling from the top as the #1 seed in the conference.
On the season, Milwaukee has managed to take the win in the both of the previous 2 meetings against the Celtics, but it could be a completely different story with Khris Middleton expected to miss the entirety of this series with an MCL sprain that he suffered in the opening series.
Milwaukee still managed to get the win in the series, but they will need to turn around some of their recent trends in order to pull out the win in this series.
The Bucks have struggled against some of the top caliber teams in the last 3 seasons away from home, as they have posted a record of just 15-27 on the road when taking on a team that is outscoring opponents by 3+ PPG on average.
Not only have they won under 36% of those games, but when it really matters, closing out the year during the 2nd half of the season, the Bucks are just 8-21 on the road taking on those opponents that are outscoring teams by 3+ points.
Milwaukee is also just 3-7 in the 2nd half of this season against teams that are attempting 21 or less free throws on the season. Resulting in a lose-lose situation for the Bucks, seeing as Boston is shooting over 82% from the FT line this post-season.
That being said, Milwaukee hasn’t done well against teams that don’t go to the line, but Boston has been one of the most productive teams when they can make their way to the line in the playoffs this year.
Boston Celtics Preview
Boston has started off this postseason as one of the most impressive teams, being the only team in the playoffs thus far to sweep their opponent, taking down the Brooklyn Nets in just 4 games. Early in this season, the Nets were one of the favorites to walk away with the Championship at the end of the year, but they failed to capture even a single win in the first round of the playoffs.
Boston took down the newest dynamic duo of Kyrie and Kevin Durant in the opening round, even though the Nets managed to shoot over 50% from the field and averaged 109 PPG. While Milwaukee seemingly won their series with their defense, the Celtics did nearly the opposite.
They countered the 109 points that they allowed with an average of nearly 114 PPG themselves on 49% shooting. The Celtics shot 35.5% from 3PT range and over 82% from the FT line, while out-rebounding the Nets by 5.5 boards per game.
The Celtics have proven that they are here to compete in this years postseason, but they also have history on their side. Since 2008 no team has has as much experience in the Conference Semifinals as the Boston Celtics.
This is their 10th appearance in the Eastern Conference Semifinals since 2008, playing 56 games in this round alone of that stretch. They have won 6 of their 9 series in those appearances, and they have a history of taking the series to the bitter end.
Five of their 9 series in this round have gone to 7 games, and Boston managed to advance in 4 of those attempts, with the sole exception being in 2009, when they fell to the Orlando Magic. That series against Orlando was also the only time since 2008 that Boston failed to advance to the Conference Finals as the higher seed in the match-up.
While I mentioned before that Milwaukee may be hoping for a longer series based on the history of the #2 vs. #3 match-up, that may also come to benefit the Celtics if the series does play out that way. Boston has won 5 of their 6 series in the Semifinals that went longer than 5 games.
Boston has the edge when it comes to injury concerns, they have listed Jaylen Brown on their injury report with hamstring tightness. The team did state that they expect it to limit Brown to some extent during this series, but unlike Middleton, it doesn’t look like Brown will miss extended team, if any time at that.
The way that Boston has played this season, and to start this postseason, there isn’t a lot that they need to change, other than potentially tightening up the defense to some extent. They are 20-9 this season against teams that are shooting over 36% from 3PT range, and Milwaukee will be without one of their top 3PT shooters in Middleton.
The Celtics are also 30-10 against teams that are forcing 13 or less turnovers this season. A major difference between these two teams is the fact that Boston has stayed consistent, and even potentially got better as a team down the stretch.
In the 2nd half of this season Boston has won 27 of their 36 games against good passing teams (averaging 23+ assists per game) and they have won 19 of their 23 games against teams shooting 46% or better, truly buckling down in the 2nd half of the season.
Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction
I don’t expect this series to be quick or easy, I do anticipate Boston to come away with the win in this series, and Milwaukee taking 2 wins on their home court. While each team has had the advantage on their home court when playing head-to-head, Boston has won 16 out of their last 19 games on the road.
Prediction: Boston Celtics 4-2 (+425)
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Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Against the Spread Notes from GoldSheet
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