NBA Playoffs Preview: Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Prediction and Betting Preview
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports gives his betting preview on the Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets divisional series in the Western Conference. Golden State finished third in the west with a 53-29 record. Denver finished sixth at 48-34.
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Series Winner | NBA Betting Notes (by DraftKings) |
---|---|
Win in 4 | Warriors (+800) Nuggets (+1800) |
Win in 5 | Warriors (+400) Nuggets (+1100) |
Win in 6 | Warriors (+400) Nuggets (+475) |
Win in 7 | Warriors (+280) Nuggets (+650) |
Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Preview
If you look back in the playoffs in the recent seasons, Oracle Arena has been one place that most people want to avoid, and Golden State has shown us again this season why you don’t want to play there.
Behind Phoenix, the Warriors have posted the 2nd best home court winning percentage out of the 20 teams in the playoff field.
They are currently 31-10 on their home court, a huge step up from their 20-19 record on the road. Golden State has won over 75% of their home games, while barely surpassing the 50% marker on the road, showing how important home court advantage is to this Warriors team.
Warriors Try Not to Let Injuries Plague Success
Injuries have hit Warriors as hard as any other team this year, they may not have endured the amount of injuries, but there is no questions that their stars have been hit hard.
Steph Curry has been ruled out for the rest of the regular season, but they are optimistic that he can return for a postseason run.
The other half of the splash brothers, Klay Thompson, has been listed on the most recent injury report, but it looks as though it is just to get him some extra rest to ensure his Achilles issue doesn’t flare up again. James Wiseman has also been ruled out for the rest of the season.
Warriors Look to Win With Experience
The biggest difference when you look at playoff experience with the Warriors, is the fact that the bulk of their roster has been intact for the experience that they have endured.
You look at the Cavs, and the Heat, where LeBron James was around for most of their runs, or a Raptors team with Kahwi Leonard, or a Hawks team that has made the playoffs nine times, but just one time since 2017.
Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green have all be apart of most of their seven previous trips to the playoffs.
They have played more playoff games since 2010 than every team in the West, and every team in the playoffs (outside of Miami and Boston), not to mention they are the only team to win over 70% of their playoff games, posting a 71.7% winning percentage dating back to 2010.
Boston is the only team that has reached the 2nd round more than the Warriors in the last 12 years, but no team in the league has made it to more Conference Finals games, Finals appearances, or won more Championships than this Golden State Warriors team.
Nuggets Need to Improve at Home
Denver is in a battled hard to conclude their regular season as the 6-seed in the Western Conference playoff bracket. While the Nuggets have avoided the play-in tournament, they are one of the worst teams at home in the Western Conference.
They have won just 57% of their home games, surpassing just New Orleans and San Antonio. Not to mention, they are the worst team in the West when it comes to covering the spread on their home court.
Yet at the same time, they are the 3rd best team in the West when it comes to playing on the road. They have won over 60% of their road games, joining the Grizzlies and Suns as the only teams in the West to win over 60% of their road games as things currently stand.
This record also includes a 15-5 record as a favorite on the road, besting every team other then Dallas and Phoenix.
Denver Dealing With injuries of Their Own
Denver also has a multitude of injuries to deal with leading into the postseason. Jamal Murray is “not close to rejoining the line-up”, while Zeke Nnaji continues to remain out indefinitely, questioning their odds to return to the team for the postseason.
Michael Porter has continued to remain out with his back issues, but Vlatko Cancar’s broken bone has healed and they are optimistic that he can return to the lineup in the coming days.
This is the 8th time that the Nuggets have made the playoffs since 2010, only 4 of the teams in the West have appeared in more postseasons in the last 12 years.
While the Nuggets have made the last three consecutive playoffs, prior to 2019, there was a 6 year gap between postseason appearances. They have made it to the 2nd round in the last three straight seasons, including one trip to the Conference Finals in 2020.
They have played in 67 postseason games in the last 12 years, more than 5 of the other Western Conference teams, and while they won just 4 series since 2010, they have walked away with a win in nearly 42% of their postseason games.
Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Prediction
Given Steph Curry returns from his injury for the full length of this series, it seems like the Warriors can wrap this one up in six games and how fitting of them to do so on Denver’s home court where as stated before they’re sub par going a modest 23-18.
The threat of reigning MVP Nikola Jokic will be there but the Nuggets team overall is average at best. Take the Warriors in five or six games.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors win Series 4-2 (+400)
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Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Against the Spread Notes from GoldSheet
NBA Tip-Off Show
Join Joe Raineri and a rotating panel of professional handicappers for the NBA Tip-Off Show every Monday-Friday at 4:15pm ET / 1:15pm PT as we discuss the NBA Playoffs. Stay up-to-date on the latest NBA news, stats, analysis, and predictions with our panel of pro sports bettors as they preview NBA Playoff action, including this Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets series.
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