NBA Playoffs Series Preview: Heat vs Celtics Prediction and Betting Preview
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports gives his series betting preview on the Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Eastern Conference final. Miami finished first in the East with a 53-29 record. Boston finished second at 51-31.
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Series Winner | NBA Betting Notes (by DraftKings) |
---|---|
Win in 4 | Heat (+2200) Celtics (+700) |
Win in 5 | Heat (+850) Celtics (+550) |
Win in 6 | Heat (+850) Celtics (+265) |
Win in 7 | Heat (+390) Celtics (+500) |
Heat vs Celtics Series Preview
The Eastern Conference Finals are set and it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that the top two teams in the East are squaring off in this years Conference Finals.
In recent years, nobody has made it to more Eastern Conference Finals than these two teams, with both teams making their 6th Conference Finals appearance since 2010.
This is Boston’s 7th appearance since 2008, and now they have played in exactly half of the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami is appearing in their 8th Conference Final since 2005 but just their 2nd since 2014!
Not only are these two teams frequent flyers to this round of the postseason, but these two teams are common opponents in recent memory in the postseason.
This is the 5th time that this two teams have matched up in the playoffs since 2010. Miami has walked away with the win in the series in 3 of the 4 previous match-ups, taking down Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2020 (winning in 6 games) and 2012 (winning in game 7).
Prior to that, Miami won the 2011 Conference Semifinals against Boston in just 5 games and Boston’s lone series win against the Heat was in the 1st round of the 2010 playoffs when Boston won in 5 games.
In the first 3 match-ups, the winner of the series was the better seeded team, but that trend didn’t continue in 2020 when 5th seeded Miami took down the 3rd seeded Celtics.
Boston Celtics Preview
Boston may be the 2nd seed in the East, but they are the favorite for the series as it stands. They are 8-3 in the postseason so far this season, behind an offense that is putting up 108.5 PPG on 45.4% shooting thus far.
While they have been impressive on their home court, posting a 4-2 record, putting up over 107 PPG on 45.5% shooting, and shooting 38% from 3PT range, the fact that they don’t have home court advantage in this series is negated by their play on the road recently.
Not only has Boston won all 3 games (straight up and against the spread) in Miami in the last 3 years, but they are also 4-1 on the road (5-0 against the spread) in the postseason thus far this season.
Away from home in the playoffs this year, they have been even more dominant offensively, putting up 110 PPG, while shooting a similar 45.5% shooting.
Boston also ended the season with the best defensive rating in the NBA and undoubtedly the best defensive team in the last 35 games of the regular season by far.
They are 3rd in the playoffs in points allowed, holding their opponents to 101.8 PPG, while holding teams to just 44.3% shooting (4th best) and just 32.9% shooting from 3PT range (3rd best) in the playoffs!
While the Celtic’s offense has been more impressive on the road, their defense has made up for it on their home court, where they have allowed under 100 PPG and held their opponents to 33.7% shooting from 3PT range.
This defense proved itself even more in the series against the defending champion Bucks, holding them to 43.5% shooting or less in 5 of the 6 games of the series! Some of their key defensive pieces thus far this offseason has been from Al Horford and Robert Williams who both rank in the top 5 for blocks per game in the postseason.
Luckily for the Celtics, it looks as though Robert Williams will be back and healthy for this round of the playoffs, but Marcus Smart is questionable for the early part of the series with a mid foot sprain.
When this team is whole they are nearly unstoppable, they are 11-3 on the road in the 2nd half of the season against teams with a winning record, and not only winning those games, but dominating those games by nearly 16 PPG!
On top of that, they are 23-7 in the 2nd half of the season against teams shooting 46% or better on the season, again dominating those games by over 12 PPG! They may have lost at home against the Heat, but they are 15-4 revenging a home loss this season!
Miami Heat Preview
Miami may be the underdog in the series, but if their defense continues to be as impressive as it has so far in the playoffs, then this series could easily go either way.
They have been the most impressive defense in the postseason and they ended the regular season 4th in the defensive ratings overall. They have allowed just 97.5 PPG on average this postseason, holding opponents to the 2nd lowest FG% at 44.1%.
They have limited the outside shooting, holding teams to just 33.2% and allowing just 37.6 rebounds per game! The key to this series is seemingly the games played on Miami’s court this season, they are 6-0 at home in the postseason so far, as they take on a Boston team that (as mentioned) has dominated on the road.
Miami is allowing just 95 PPG at home to the opposition, holding them to 42.1% shooting on their own court and allowing just 27% shooting from 3PT range in Miami! Games on the road have been a different story for Miami, as they are just 2-3, allowing just over 100 PPG but allowing 47% shooting!
Jimmy Butler has helped push this offense to the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami has averaged over 107 PPG on 46.4% shooting, but shooting 49% at home, amounting to 112 PPG!
On the road, the Heat have put up just 101 PPG on 43.5% shooting and shooting just 26.1% from beyond the arc. A lot of the good aspects of their offense are thanks to Jimmy Butler, he is 4th currently in the playoffs averaging 28.7 PPG himself, and immensely increasing his production from beyond the arc.
During the regular season Butler shot just 23.3% from 3PT range, and so far in the playoffs, he has attempted over 4 3-pointers per game and is shooting 36.4% from deep! While also leading the postseason in steals at 2.1 per game!
The Heat are 37-13 this season against teams that are forcing 13 or less turnovers per game but the big questions revolve around Kyle Lowry.
The Heat went out and acquired Lowry for a late push in the postseason, and while they have made it thus far without him, his absence could be substantial against the likes of Tatum, Brown and Smart.
Heat vs Celtics Series Prediction
This series is shaping up to be a defensive battle, and while Butler has been the most important piece offensively, the amount of weapons that Boston produces on the offensive side may be too much to handle.
Boston has played well home and away, while Miami has struggled on the road, if Boston can take just 1 game in Miami, I think this series will be hard to swing back Miami’s way.
Prediction: Boston Celtics Win Series 4-3 (+500)
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