Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Prediction and Betting Preview
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports gives his prediction on tonight’s Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets showdown on Monday, March 7. At the time of posting, the home Heat have opened as a 14-point home favorite over the road Rockets, with the total sitting at 224.5 points.
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Monday, March 7 | NBA Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Miami Heat -14 vs Houston Rockets |
Total: | 224.5 Points |
Game Time: | 7:40pm ET / 4:40pm PT |
Arena: | FTX Arena in Miami, FL |
TV: | Bally Sports Sun |
Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Preview
The underdogs have been the story recently with the play of the Magic and the Pistons, but Houston has continued their ways recently.
They have lost 12 straight games and now they are set to travel to Miami to take on the Heat, and potentially take on a line-up that includes Victor Oladipo for the first time in a Miami jersey.
Miami has dominated the head-to-head series, posting a 31-18 record since 1996 and they have won 19 of the 25 games on their home court in that time frame.
Records aside, when you look at the statistics in the last 10 games, these two teams don’t seem far apart, one team has posted 111.3 PPG on 45.5% shooting, and connecting on just over 35% of their shots from deep.
The other has posted 112.8 PPG on 47.6% shooting and connecting on 36.5% of their 3PT attempts. The first team is 0-10 (Houston), while the other is 8-2 (Miami)!
Rockets Ready for Season to End
Houston is continuously fighting for that #1 position, the #1 position in the draft that is. They are currently one game ahead (or technically behind) Orlando for the number one overall pick in the draft with a 15-48 record on the season.
Their biggest downfall on the season may be their defense, they are allowing 118 PPG to the opposition, while putting up just over 108 PPG themselves.
Not only is the defense allowing 118 points, they are allowing that amount of points against teams that are averaging just 109.6 PPG on the season, giving up nearly nine PPG more to the opposition then they have averaged this year.
While their entire season has lacked the impressive moments that we have seen from Houston in previous years, they have been even worse on the road this time around. They are just 7-27 straight up away from home, allowing over 118 PPG and barely surpassing 107 PPG on average themselves.
As I mentioned before, they have dropped 12 straight games, and their 2nd half struggles have continued this year, they are just 18-40 against the spread in the 2nd half of the season over the last two years, losing by over 11 PPG on average.
Heat Eyeing Big Return
Miami has propelled themselves into the top seed in the East, if they can continue their current run, this will be by far their best finish in the regular season in years.
In the 2015-2016 season the Heat ended the regular season in 3rd, outside of that, they haven’t had a finish inside the top five in the last seven seasons.
Now, Miami could be expecting the return of Victor Oladipo, the two time all-star has yet to appear in a game for the Heat, but there are still questions if this team will be at full strength with Kyle Lowry listed as questionable for tonight’s game.
A starting roster that includes Lowry, Oladipo, Butler, and Adebayo is one that most teams would fear in the playoffs, but it is even more impressive to think that this team sits in 1st place without ever seeing those four players on the court at the same time.
They are 43-22 on the season, which includes an impressive 22-7 record on their home court this season!
They have been on an impressive run as we near the end of the season, cashing in on 11 of the last 13 games overall, helping them increase their lead to three games over Philadelphia who currently sits in 2nd place in the Eastern Conference.
The offense has been rolling over the stretch, shooting over 50% in the last five games and they look to continue that trend.
They have played well against teams under .500 in the 2nd half of the season, posting a 15-4 record against the spread over the last two years, putting up 113.4 PPG, while allowing just 104.1 PPG to the opposition.
Beyond that, coach Spoelstra is 31-12 against the spread when playing teams under .250 winning percentage in the 2nd half of the season over his tenure with Miami.
Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Prediction
It is scary to think what this 4-headed monster could look like in Miami if they can keep Butler, Adebayo, Lowry and Oladipo healthy throughout the playoffs.
On the season, Tyler Herro ranks 25th in the league in PPG (20.6), while Kyler Lowry ranks 8th in the league in assists per game (7.9), and they have the ability to shoot from deep with PJ Tucker and Max Strus both ranking in the top 25 in the league currently.
Not to mention, those rankings don’t include Jimmy Butler (69.2% of games) or Bam Adebayo (61.5% of games) seeing as they haven’t played in the minimum of 70% of the teams games, but we can think about the fact that Butler would rank 22nd in the league in PPG (21.4) and 4th in the league in steals per game (1.8) and Adebayo would rank 12th in rebounds per game (10.3) and 11th in steals per game (1.5).
Houston has lacked the production across the board but Eric Gordon still possesses the ability to shoot from deep, ranking 17th making 41.1% of his 3PT attempts, and they do have a presence in the pain with Christian Wood currently ranking 12th in rebounds per game (10.1) and 30th in blocks (1.0) and Alperen Sengun tied with Wood at one block per game.
The potential is unmatched with what Miami can do, and Houston will have their hands full in tonight’s game, but only time will tell if Oladipo can mesh with a team that has already gotten their barrings and has played well together as a unit the entirety of the season.
I think the Heat will take out the Rockets in the return of Oladipo, while this is one of the bigger lines we have seen recently in the NBA, I expect Miami to roll.
Prediction: Miami Heat -14
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— Sportsmemo (@sportsmemo) March 7, 2022
Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Notes from GoldSheet
NBA Stat Sheet
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