2022 NBA Playoffs Preview: Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Prediction and Betting Preview
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports gives his betting preview on the Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers conference semi-final in the Eastern Conference. Miami finished first in the East with a 53-29 record. Philadelphia finished fourth at 51-31.
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Series Winner | NBA Betting Notes (by DraftKings) |
---|---|
Win in 4 | Heat (+400) 76ers (+5000) |
Win in 5 | Heat (+260) 76ers (+2500) |
Win in 6 | Heat (+450) 76ers (+750) |
Win in 7 | Heat (+340) 76ers (+800) |
Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Preview
Since 2010, these two teams have been two of the most consistent teams in the Eastern Conference when it comes to making the Conference Semifinals. Although, from that point on the history favors the Heat.
This is the 5th time since 2010 that Philadelphia has made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs, but they haven’t advanced to the Conference Finals once since 2010. They have made it this far in 3 out of the last 4 years, and their 4th appearance came back in 2012.
They did push 3 of those series all the way to a game 7 (2012, 2019 & 2021) but they won just a single game in the 2018 series against the Celtics. In that same time frame, Philadelphia is exactly .500 in the postseason, including the 1st round of this seasons playoffs.
They hold a 31-31 record in the previous 12 years, now they look to get back on the positive side of the record and advanced to the Conference Finals for the first time since 2001. Meanwhile, Miami has secured their 7th trip to the Eastern Conference Semifinals since 2010, and they have advanced to the Conference Finals in 5 of their previous 6 appearances.
While their runs earlier in the decade included a certain player (Lebron) who failed to make the postseason this year, they advanced to the Conference Finals 4 straight years (2011-2014), but they also accomplished that feat in 2020, with their only loss in the 2nd round coming in 2016.
Not only did they advance to the Conference Finals in 5 out of those 6 years, but all 5 years that they won in the Semifinals, they also advanced to the NBA Finals.
The Heat have a noticeably better record in the postseason dating back to 2010, winning nearly 61% of their games, posting a 86-55 record, which includes round 1 this year. Although, the one slight downside for Miami is the fact that the #1 seed has lost in the Semifinals in 3 of the last 4 seasons, falling in 2021, 2020 & 2018.
Philadelphia 76ers Preview
Philadelphia is the underdog headed into this series, as any team would be playing the #1 seed in their conference, but they are at an even bigger disadvantage playing without Joel Embiid.
Yet, the addition of James Harden this season has drastically improved this team as a whole, and it doesn’t look like they will have to play the entirety of this series without their big man. Embiid and the team has made it known that barring any setbacks, he is eyeing a return to the series in game 3, their first home game against the Miami Heat.
Even though we have only seen one round played thus far, Philadelphia has been a force on both sides of the court. They rank 4th of the 16 teams when it comes to PPG, putting up 111.5 points on average, shooting nearly 49% from the field and ranking in the top 3 when shooting from deep, capitalizing on nearly 41% of their 3PT shot attempts.
They have been the most consistent team from the free throw line in the first round, shooting nearly 85% from the charity stripe, and they have limited the opportunities their opponent has had from the free throw line, committing just 20.3 fouls on average, the 3rd best number in the 1st round.
This has been a result of a team that shot 51% or better in all 4 of their wins in the 1st round, yet they struggled in the losses, shooting under 43% in both losses against Toronto.
On the defensive side of the ball they are allowing just 103 PPG to their opposition (#4) and allowing them to shoot under 30% from the 3PT line. Their one issue through the first round has been their ability to force turnovers and they ranked 14 out of 16 teams forcing just 9.2 turnovers per game.
Miami has been impressive against teams that have struggled to force turnovers and Philly failed to force 12+ turnovers in a single game of the 1st round.
One of the keys for the 76ers this season has been rest, they are 9-1 on the road when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season, 12-2 on the road when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and again 12-2 on the road when playing 2 or less games in 5 days. While that will be key early in the series, this Semifinals match-up is set to tip off every other day from here on out.
Although that seems to be one of the big things in the 76ers favor, because they are just 3-14 on the road off a win by 20+ points against a divisional opponent since 1996, setting them up for an issue coming into game 1.
On top of that, an underdog that covered the spread by 24+ points in the previous game, against a team that went under the total by 18+ points in their previous game is just 5-33 in the last 5 seasons, again another stat that points to this series getting off to a shaky start for Philadelphia.
Miami Heat Preview
Miami handled Atlanta “with ease” in the 1st round this season, taking just 5 games to advance to the Eastern Semi’s, but their offense was slightly lack-luster and their defense proved to be one of the big keys to taking the series quickly.
They were middle of the pack in most of their offensive stats, ranking 9th of 16 teams in PPG, putting up just over 109 points on average, shooting 46.5% from the field and 34.4% from 3PT range. They were 10th from the FT line, shooting just over 78% and they fouled the opposition over 23 times per game (12th of 16 teams).
Yet their defense stayed strong throughout, allowing just 97.4 points to Atlanta per game and holding them to just 44% shooting!
It has shown how many versatile options this Miami team has had all season, while they have created a dominating line-up on paper, the amount of times this team has had the entirety of their line-up healthy has been limited.
They are again coming into this series with some question marks when it comes to health, they will be without Kyle Lowry in game 1 of the series, and PJ Tucker, Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin and Jimmy Butler have all found themselves on the injury report and listed as questionable for the opener.
Although I do expect most of them to be active and ready to go. None-the-less, even with the limited line-up this season, they still secured the #1 seed in the East for a reason.
Miami has held the advantage in recent years against Philadelphia, especially on their home court as they are 4-1 in Miami when taking on the 76ers in the last 3 years. The two teams have split their last 6 games overall, but Miami is 18-8 this season when seeking revenge for a loss.
As I mentioned quickly above, Miami has taken advantage of teams that have struggled to force turnovers in pressure situations, they are 33-11 when playing teams that have forced 13 or less turnovers per game on average this season.
Similar to Philly, Miami has also benefited from a little extra rest, they have posted a record of 12-3 when playing with 3+ days rest, and they will look to come out hot in game 1. While the entirety of this series will be an exciting one to watch, multiple aspects point to Miami coming out of the gate strong and taking game 1.
They are 29-6 this season following at least 1 consecutive game staying under the total, and 11-2 after 2 or more consecutive games staying under. Not only did the last game of round 1 stay under, but it was under the total by a long shot, and the Heat are 16-2 this season following a game with a combined score of 205 or less!
As history has had it, a home favorite that went under the total by 12+ points in back-to-back games with a winning record is 615-223 (73.4%) since 1996 and an even more impressive 126-27 (82.4%) in just the last 5 years!
If Miami can start this series right, they can set themselves up for success in the series, they are 18-3 at home after winning 3 of the last 4 games (and they are winning those games by over 7 PPG), just as they have, and they can continue that trend with a win in game 1.
Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Prediction
Miami has dominated at home, and I anticipate the Heat taking both of the first two games with relative ease. When Embiid returns, I do think that will be some added sparks to this team, especially if he returns in Philly.
This 76ers team has been a new team since that addition of James Harden, they very well may have been a noticeably higher seed if Harden had played all season and I don’t think this will be an easy series for the Heat, forcing them to win a game 7 at home to move on to their 6th Conference Finals appearance since 2010.
Prediction: Miami Heat 4-2 (+450)
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Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Against the Spread Notes from GoldSheet
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