2023 NFL Draft Betting Analysis on #1 Draft Pick
The NFL combine is taking place in Indianapolis this week, but oddsmakers already have an idea of who will be the first pick in the 2023 NFL draft.
Key position groups still need to test, and prospects still need to have their pro days, so these odds are dynamic and are subject to change as soon as this weekend is over.
The Chicago Bears currently have the No. 1 pick, but rumors are circulating that the pick is for sale. Chicago’s need for a QB is debatable, and it is fair to wonder if they actually trade out of this pick or take the best player available.
Let’s take a look at some realistic options to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Sportsmemo’s 2022 No. 1 NFL handicapper Eric Pauly breaks down who he thinks will go first overall.
2023 NFL Draft Predictions: #1 Draft Pick Odds
Player/Position | #1 Draft Pick Odds |
---|---|
Bryce Young, QB | -170 |
CJ Stroud, QB | +350 |
Will Anderson, DE | +650 |
Anthony Richardson, QB | +650 |
Will Levis, QB | +750 |
Jalen Carter, DT | +2500 |
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama -170
Bryce Young won the Heisman in 2021, but he and Alabama had a down year in 2022. Young passed for 3328 yards on a 64.5% competition percentage last season.
Young’s toughness, poise, and accuracy are not questioned, but he is small in stature and mass, so teams may have concerns about his ability to hold up at the pro level. I do not think Young goes No. 1 overall.
CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State, +350
If the Bears do trade the No. 1 pick, I expect it to be the Colts for Stroud. CJ Stroud passed for 3,688 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2022 after a 4,435 passing yards and 44 passing touchdown season in 2021.
Stroud played at his best in Ohio State’s loss to Georgia last season, and he is my favorite QB in the draft. +350 is value for Stroud to go No. 1.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida +650
Anthony Richardson’s talent and athleticism are elite, but I am skeptical about how his game will translate to the next level.
Richardson has not won anything, but someone he is being treated like he is better than Lamar coming out. I am not buying it. He will be a first-round pick, but he will not go No. 1 overall.
Will Anderson, DE, Alabama +650
Will Anderson would have been the No. 1 overall pick last year, and he should be in consideration again. If the Bears do not trade the pick, he should be their top target. Anderson had a down year last year and was still better than the rest of the country.
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky +750
I don’t see it. Maybe I will come around during his pro day, but Levis is not better than Stroud or Young. Maybe a QB-desperate team falls in love and gives the Bears a haul, but I think they would be making a mistake.
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia +2500
This number was much lower before the warrant went out for Carter’s role in a driving incident that killed a teammate and a Georgia staffer. Carter is the best player in the draft, but character concerns will probably push him out of the No. 1 slot.
Opening Line Report | NFL Futures Betting Report
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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