Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview: Game Analysis
The San Francisco 49ers head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons in an NFC showdown. Can the 49ers win their third straight game? Will they cover the spread? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers week 6 betting pick.
Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers Betting Pick – What Are the Best Odds?
Sunday, October 16 | NFL Week 6 Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Atlanta Falcons +5.5 vs San Francisco 49ers |
Total: | o/u 44.5 Points |
Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA |
Game Time: | 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | FOX |
Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers Analysis
On Sunday afternoon, the 3-2 49ers head to Atlanta to take on the 2-3 Falcons. The 49ers are coming off a win in Carolina and this is the second consecutive road game for the 49ers.
The Falcons are coming off a deflating loss against the Bucs in Tampa where they had all the momentum but ended up losing due to a questionable penalty call. The Falcons have overperformed so far this season, and they have looked good at times, but the 49ers seem like a Super Bowl team.
Falcons Flustered In Close Games
I was low on Atlanta coming into this season, but I am impressed with what I have seen so far. However, the issue with the Falcons is that, while they are in tight games, they have lost three of them. NFL teams cannot rely on 4th quarter rallies to win – they need to bring it in all 4 quarters.
Atlanta runs the ball 54.98% of the time and they are third in rush yards, 3rds in touchdowns, and 7th in yards per attempt. Cordarrelle Patterson, their leading rusher, is on the IR, and, outside of scrambles from Mariota, this team could not get their run game going against Tampa last week.
Atlanta struggles when they are forced to drop back and pass. The Falcons are 31st in passing attempts, 29th in passing yards, and 24th in net yards per attempt.
On the defensive side of the ball, Atlanta has done a solid job despite not having the most talented defensive unit. What concerns me is the Falcons’ defense is 30th in average drive time, 32nd in average plays per drive, 31st in average yards per drive, and 28 in average points allowed per drive.
They have only sacked opposing QBs 8 times, and they have the lowest pressure rate in the NFL, yet they only blitz 19.7% of the time, meaning they are relying on coverage and their four-man front to get to opposing QBs.
49ers Defense Is Frightening
Since Lance went down with an injury and Garoppolo was inserted back into the starting lineup, this is a different team. The 49ers are coming off back-to-back dominant victories and they look to be the real deal.
San Fran runs the ball at a 51.16% clip and they are 8th in rushing yards, 13th in yards per rush attempt, and they have broken off seven runs of 20+ yards and 20 rushes of 40+ yards. In the passing game, their team stats are slightly skewed due to Lance starting two games, but their passing offense has been effective.
Jimmy G has been sacked 9 times this season, he has thrown 1 pick, and he is completing 60.7% of his passes with 8 yards per attempt. Their offense is 11th in the NFL on third down but 17th in red zone percentage.
As everyone knows, or if you don’t know you soon will know, this team is elite defensively. This team is first in points allowed per game allowing a measly 12.2 points to opposing offenses.
San Fran is 1st in points for, 1st in yards against, 1st in passing TDs allowed, 3rd in passing yards allowed, 1st in rushing yards allowed, 1st in defensive yards per rushing attempt, 2nd in net yards per passing attempt, 9th in average drive time, and 1st in yards and points per average drive. Didn’t I tell you this unit was elite?
Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction
The strength of the Falcons is their run game and the 49ers’ defense defends the run better than any other team in the NFL. The Falcons struggle in the passing game, and the 49ers’ defense is great against the pass.
The Falcons have an 8.9% adjusted sack rate, which is 25th in the NFL, and they are going against the best passing defense in the NFL. Do you see where I’m going with this?
The Falcons have been a fun story this season, and while I respect their effort this season, and they played solidly toward the end of the Bucs’ game against the 3rd rated defense in DVOA this year, they still only scored 15 points.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers -5.5 (if you see SF -6, considering teasing them to PK in a 6 points teaser)
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 6
Don’t just stop at this Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers betting pick! Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed this NFC clash between the Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 6 games, including this Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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