Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders Betting Preview: Game Analysis
On this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football, the 1-4 Washington Commanders head to Soldier Field to take on the 2-3 Chicago Bears. Can Washington break its three-game losing streak on the road in primetime? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears betting pick.
Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders Betting Pick – What Are the Best Odds?
Thursday, October 13 | NFL Week 5 Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Chicago Bears (PK) vs Washington Commanders |
Total: | o/u 38 Points |
Location: | Soldier Field in Chicago, IL |
Game Time: | 8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | Prime Video |
Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders Analysis
Washington lost their third straight game this past Sunday against the Titans in which they outgained Tennessee by 144 yards. Carson Wentz threw an interception in the end zone on third and goal from the two-yard line with 9 seconds left to end Washington’s hopes of winning the ball game.
Chicago is coming off a tough loss against the Vikings in Minnesota. The Bears rallied back to take a lead early in the fourth quarter, but they were unable to hold on to the lead. Chicago dropped to 2-3 and they are coming off back-to-back losses.
Washington Not Commanding Much
Carson Wentz has been sacked the second most of any other quarterback, and while some of these sacks are a result of him holding on to the ball too long, a lot of the sacks can be attributed to horrible offensive line play.
Washington’s offensive line has a 9.8% adjusted sack rate which is 30th in the NFL, and this also is why the Commanders cannot run the ball. The Commanders have skill players with a ton of talent, but if they cannot get them the ball in space, they cannot create.
Wentz is actually coming off his best game of the season, but it still was not enough to win. The Commanders’ offense is 19th in yards and 28th in rushing yards this season but they are 10th in passing yards.
Washington’s defense played well against the Titans, but they cannot stop the big play, and that has haunted them since Jack Del Rio was hired in 2019.
Washington allows opposing quarterbacks to average 7.2 yards per attempt, but their defense holds opposing QBs to a 58.9 completion percentage. They do not force turnovers which is a huge issue for this team.
This is a good matchup for Washington as the Bears are a ground-and-pound team. The Washington defense is talented, and they play very well at times, but they make too many mistakes and force too few turnovers to maximize their potential.
Justin Fields Must Improve For Bears
This Bears team runs the football 62.3% of the time, but this is not the best spot for that as we noted earlier that the Commanders’ run defense is the strength of that unit. For a team that runs the ball this much, you would like to see the Bears posses the ball more. Chicago has also allowed 18 sacks this season, which is the 5th most in the NFL.
This offense relies on the run, but Washington will do their best to stop the run. They need more out of Justin Fields and the passing game in order to win this football game. Chicago’s offense is 28th in third-down conversion percentage which is horrible, but they are 13th in red zone percentage.
The Bears have just eight sacks this season which is 30th in the NFL and they allow a 65.7% completion percentage and 6.9 yards per attempt to opposing QBs.
Chicago’s defense is 15th in points allowed, but 22nd in yards allowed, 32md in rushing attempts allowed, 31st in rushing yards, and 28th in rushing TDs. This defense also cannot get off the field. They are 32nd in average drive time, 31st in average plays, and 20th in points allowed per drive.
Their one strength is their passing defense. The Bears have allowed the 9th fewest passing yards and the 4th least passing TDs this season. Their third-down defense is last in the NFL and their red zone defense is 23rd.
Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders Prediction
As I mentioned earlier, my numbers have the Commanders as favorites, and based on what I typed above, you can clearly see why. However, Matt Eberfus, the Bears’ HC, knows Carson Wentz, his limitations, his strengths, and how to rush him. This is the only thing that makes me nervous about this matchup.
However, from a pure numbers perspective, Washington is the right side. I like the way this Bears team competes, and while it is possible this Washington team has given up on Ron Rivera, this game is do or die, and I like the road dog to win outright.
Prediction: Washington Commanders PK -110
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 6
Don’t just stop at this Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders betting pick! Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed this NFC clash between the Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 6 games, including this Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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