Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers Betting Pick: Game Analysis
On Sunday afternoon, the 2-2 Browns host the 2-2 Chargers in an AFC showdown. The Chargers are coming off a much-needed win in Houston and the Browns are coming off a loss in Atlanta.
For this matchup, my lookahead line was LAC -3, 50, and the lookahead line was LAC -1, 48. After Week 4 was played, the line reopened at LAC -3, 48 which was exactly in line with my numbers in the first place.
As of writing this, the consensus line on this matchup is LAC -3 and the total is 48. Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick.
Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers Betting Pick – What Are the Best Odds?
Sunday, October 9 | NFL Week 5 Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Cleveland Browns +3 vs Los Angeles Chargers |
Total: | o/u 47.5 Points |
Location: | FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, OH |
Game Time: | 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | CBS |
Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction : LA Trying To Overcome Injuries
The Chargers suffered huge losses to injury across their entire team. Sophomore left tackle Rashwan Slater is out for the season, Keenan Allen has been hurt, and Nick Bosa has hit the IR.
The Chargers were embarrassed at home by the Jaguars two weeks ago but they bounced back nicely on the road against the Texans.
Charging Up The Run Game
The Texans are not a good team by any stretch, but the Chargers’ ability to get Ekeler more involved due to injuries paid dividends and was a good sign for LA. The Chargers have scored 92 points this season and 48 of them have come in the second quarter of games.
With no Allen, the Chargers need to get their ground game back on track. They did a good job against the Texans who are 29th in Rush DVOA. This week they take on Cleveland which is 30th in rush DVOA, so the Chargers must continue to rely on Ekeler in the run game and short passing game.
The Chargers’ numbers against the Texans on the ground should have been better considering how bad the Texans run defense is.
Defense Must Come Around For Chargers
The Chargers have allowed 108 points on defense this year which is not good considering the investments they made on that side of the ball. LA is 30th in points allowed, 20th in total yards allowed, 31st in rushing yards per attempt, 21st in third-down defense, and 15th in red zone defense.
Los Angeles has 11 sacks this season but losing Joey Bosa seriously stings. The Chargers allow the most yards per carry of any team in the NFL which is troubling going against this Browns team. The Chargers are 14th in passing yards allowed this season to wide receivers and 13th in passing yards allowed to tight ends.
Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers Betting Pick : Chubb! Chubb! Chubb!
The Browns are 3rd in the NFL in rush DVOA and I could not be further from shocked. Nick Chubb is the best pure runner in the NFL and he is a man on a mission this season.
Chubb is 2nd in the NFL in rush yards, 2nd in rushing TDs, and 3rd in rush attempts. The Browns have run the ball 53% of the time on offense this season.
Somewhat shockingly, the Browns, with a backup, are 11th in the league in passing DVOA this season. Brissett is not asked to pass much, but when he does, he has completed 64.6% of his passes and has an 87.1 passer rating. He has been sacked just 5 times this year and the Browns have the fifth-highest adjust sack rate in the NFL.
Cleveland Must Try To Contain Ekeler
The Browns have allowed 95 points this season which is not great, but what is most troubling is the fact they have allowed 50 points in the fourth quarter. Cleveland locks down to start the game and the second half, but they are susceptible at the end of the first half and the final quarter of the game.
Where Cleveland really struggles is rushing defense – they are 30th in the league in total DVOA. The Browns are 29th in rushing TDs allowed, 18th in rush yards per attempt, and 28th in yards per carry allowed.
In the passing game, the Browns are 18th in passing DVOA. The Browns are the 13th best third-down defense and the 21st best red zone defense in the NFL, which is not great. Myles Garrett should be suiting up on Sunday, so that should help this team.
Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
Looking at this number, I expect it to close at Chargers -2. Cleveland has shown their inability to close out games this season, but I think they can put up a fight in this matchup. I think the total of 48 is too high since both teams will try to run the ball on each other, so I would look at an under-angle for this game.
Prediction: Under 47.5 Points Scored
And there’s your Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick for October 9th’s game.
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 5
Don’t just stop at this Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick! Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed this AFC clash between the Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers among other games giving their expert betting analysis
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 5 games, including this Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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