Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders Betting Preview: Game Analysis
The 5-5 Commanders head to Houston this Sunday to take on the 1-7-1 Texans. Will Washington win their second straight game? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Washington Commanders vs Houston Texans Week 11 betting pick.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders Betting Odds
Sunday, November 20 | Week 11 NFL Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Houston Texans +3.5 vs Washington Commanders |
Total: | o/u 40.5 Points |
Location: | NRG Stadium in Houston, TX |
Game Time: | 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | FOX |
Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders Analysis
The Commanders knocked off the unbeaten Eagles in Week 10, and now they head to Houston to take on the team with the worst record in the entire NFL. The Texans have not won since Week 5 and they have not been competitive in any game over the past month.
While Washington seems to be poised to cruise to a victory, this line is only Washington -3. While the Texans have issues on all levels of the field, this should be a closer game than most people think.
Wentz Healthy Could Be Trouble For Commanders
The Commanders shocked the NFL in Week 10 when they beat the Eagles on primetime, and now they have to beat an inferior opponent to get back over .500 on the season.
Taylor Heinicke did a great job Monday night in Philly, but he still has problems throwing the ball down the field and he makes some questionable decisions. Regardless, Washington is 3-1 in Heinicke’s starts this season, and while Wentz will be back off the IR, the Commanders should start Heinicke.
While Wentz has a much bigger arm than Heinicke, the later QB clearly inspires the locker room, is a better athlete, and is more of a threat on play-action. This team rallies around Heinicke, and while he has not been perfect by any means, he is leading this team to victory.
The Texans struggle to defend the run game, and as seen on Monday night, Washington is capable of playing bully ball in the run game.
Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson kept getting fed and this team was able to crank out long drives and convert a ton of short third downs. I expect more of the same in this game against a Texans rush defense that leaves a lot to be desired.
On defense, the Commanders have stepped up and they are finally playing close to their potential. They were not perfect against Philly, but they were opportunistic.
You cannot expect a team to force four turnovers per game, but if they can produce more interceptions or fumbles, this team is hard to move the ball and score points on. On a per-drive basis, Washington’s defense is 1st in drive time, 1st in plays, 6th in yards, and 11th in points.
This team is 7th on third down and 13th in the red zone. When this team is making plays like this, especially with Chase Young expected back in the lineup, they make life difficult for the other team. Washington is 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate this season.
If Wentz is under center, I am much less optimistic for Washington. The locker room will be divided, Wentz cannot escape pressure, and he cannot run the play-action as Heinicke has.
However, Washington’s defense is leaps and bounds better than Houston’s offense, so Washington may be able to win on the strength of their defense alone.
Terrible in Texas
The Texans have one win this season and based on their level of play, this is not surprising. The Texans had multiple chances to beat the Giants last week, but they were incapable of doing so. Now, at home, the Texans have to face a better defense.
On offense this season, the Texans have been limited in their weapons outside of Brandin Cooks and rookie running back Dameon Pierce. However, when it comes to the rest of this offense, there is not much to get excited about.
The Texans are 25th in net yards per attempt and 18th in yards per attempt on the ground. On a per-drive basis, the Texans are 27th in time, 30th in plays, 29th in yards, and 29th in points.
They do a good job of preventing sacks, but they have still allowed 23 so far this year. However, this team is a disaster on third down and in the red zone, so it is no wonder they are 28th in points scored this season.
On defense, the Texans have just as many problems if not more. They are middle of the pack in pressure rate and sacks, but that is the best thing about this defense.
The Texans are 25th in net yards per attempt and 29th in rushing yards per attempt. On a per-drive basis, this defense is 3rd in field position, but they are 27th in drive time, 26th in plays, 29th in yards, and 21st in points.
In the NFL, any team can beat anyone on any given Sunday, so I cannot say the Texans are a lock to lose. However, based on their offense, defense, and coaching, there is little to be excited about with this team.
Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders Prediction
This is a must-win game for Washington. If they win in Houston, they will be 6-5 and firmly in the hunt for an NFC Wild Card appearance. As for the Texans, it is clear they are rebuilding, and they had no expectations of winning anything this season.
Washington should be able to run the ball down Houston’s throat and there is not much the Texans can do back.
If Houston is able to force Heinicke, or Wentz, into turnovers, they will be in this game. Washington is by no means perfect, but they do match up well against a Texans team that has been preparing for the 2023 NFL Draft before the season even began.
Prediction: Washington Moneyline -160 & Texans team total under 17.5 -109
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 11
Don’t just stop at this Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders betting pick! Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed this clash between the Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 11 games, including this Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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