Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview: Game Analysis
Sunday afternoon, the Jaguars head to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs in an AFC showdown. Will the Chief’s offense bounce back after a poor outing against Tennessee? Do the Jaguars have momentum after their 17-point comeback win? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 10 betting pick.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Pick – What Are the Best Odds?
Sunday, November 13 | NFL Week 10 Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars |
Total: | o/u 51 Points |
Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO |
Game Time: | 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | CBS |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Analysis
After nine weeks of the season, the Chiefs look like a juggernaut and the Jaguars seem like the same old Jags. Kansas City has not been overly explosive on offense or defense, but they are a solid team through and through.
The Jaguars, and Trevor Lawrence, have great moments where they seem like a playoff team but also have some times where they look like the same old Jaguars. 9.5 points is a lot of points, and the Chiefs have not been covering at home this season. If Lawrence is on his A-game, this could be a closer game than most people think.
Jaguars Making Progress
The Jaguars have had an up-and-down season. They have not lost a game by more than 7 points, but they also could have won some of those games that have become losses.
They are resilient, but often times they seem poorly coached. In the weak AFC South, this team is not out of the race, but this is a good measuring stick game for this team.
The Jaguars have been a mixed bag on offense this season. For starters, Lawrence has been sacked the second least amount of times of any QB this season, but their offense still struggles to move the ball.
Sometimes Lawrence looks like the highly touted prospect he was, and other times it seems like he is not ready for the speed of the NFL yet. On a per-drive basis, the Jaguars are 11th in time, 10th in plays, 8th in yards, but 16th in points.
This team lacks a true No. 1 receiver, and that also hinders this offense. This team is 9th in third-down offense and 21st in red zone offense, but they are just 24th on fourth down and they go for it a ton.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Jaguars started off hot but seem to be regressing to the mean.
This team struggles against the pass but is better against the run. On a per-drive basis, Jacksonville is 17th in time, 25th in plays, 20th in yards, and 17th in points.
They are 15th in third-down defense and 15th in red zone percentage. This unit has played well, but they have also not played a team as good as the Chiefs yet this season.
While the Jaguars show some good signs, it is clear they are not ready to be elite yet. If they can put up a fight against the Chiefs, it could be a great morale booster for this locker room.
Chiefs Not Missing Hill
Unsurprisingly, the Cheifs have been one of the best teams in the NFL so far this season. Patrick Mahomes is my MVP of the league so far and this team is poised for another stretch run.
They have had very few downs so far this season, and even when things do not go their way, they still have Mahomes, so it is safe to believe they will be alright.
On offense, the Chiefs are as dynamic as ever even without Tyreek Hill. Kansas City, on a per-drive basis, is 13th in field position, 8th in drive time, 4th in plays, 2nd in yards, and 1st in points.
Kansas City is 2nd on third down conversion and 2nd in red zone offense. This team struggles in the ground game, but their passing game is electric. This team is as good as its been in years past.
On defense, the Chiefs have taken a slight step back. On a per-drive basis, the Chiefs are 10th in drive time, 19th in plays, 18th in yards, and 24th in points.
The Chiefs defense relies on getting negative plays and then shutting down the opponent. If they do not create a negative play on a drive, it is tough for this team. Kansas City is 4th in the NFL in pressure rate and they can wreak havoc on offense when they are getting after the quarterback.
Their secondary is a little suspect, and they let up a ton of yards to wide receivers out of the backfield, but this unit is still solid.
All in all, the Chiefs match up well with the Jaguars and they are still the team to beat in the AFC. This team is great in all three phases of the game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
The Jaguars are not bad enough to be 9.5-point underdogs to the Cheifs, but at the same time, I do not feel comfortable taking them since this game is priced efficiently.
The Chiefs struggle to cover at home, and the Jaguars play close games, so it will be interesting to see how this game plays out.
I am looking at the total here. Yes, it is high, but these teams have high-powered offenses and they leave a little to be desired on defense. This should lead to points, points, and more points.
Prediction: Over 51 Points Scored -110
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 10
Don’t just stop at this Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons betting pick! Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed this clash between the Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 10 games, including this Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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