New York Giants vs Washington Commanders Betting Preview
Sunday afternoon, the 7-5 Commanders head to New York to take on the 7-4 Giants in an NFC East showdown. This is essentially an early playoff game. Will Washington continue their winning ways? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert New York Giants vs Washington Commanders Week 13 betting pick.
New York Giants vs Washington Commanders Week 13 Betting Odds
Sunday, December 4 | Week 13 NFL Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | New York Giants +2.5 vs Washington Commanders |
Total: | o/u 40.5 Points |
Location: | MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ |
Game Time: | 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | FOX |
New York Giants vs Washington Commanders Betting Analysis
We are in Week 13 of the season, and at the moment, all 4 NFC East teams are in the playoffs. The Commanders and the Giants hold the final two spots, and this game might as well be a playoff game. With limited time left in the season, every game matters, and it is hard to overstate the importance of this one.
Washington is 6-1 in their last 7 games while the Giants are 2-3 in their last 5. Both of these teams are flawed and have negative point differentials, but they find ways to win. This may be an ugly game on Sunday, but it should be a close one.
Washington Winning Ugly
Their games may come down to the wire almost every week, but the Commanders have bounced back from a 1-4 start. Taylor Heinicke is by no means perfect, and he is due for one turnover every game, but this team competes.
Washington has been able to find an identity on both sides of the ball, and its ability to stay true to its formula has been huge for this team over the past two months.
On offense, Washington has turned into a tried and true ground-and-pound team. Heinicke has very limited arm talent as we know, so despite the fact Washington has great outside weapons, this team leans on the run game to move the ball on offense.
Washington likes to control the clock by breaking off runs at a modest 3-4 yards per clip, and it works. This offense is not explosive and it does not score many points, but when they are churning out yards and not turning it over, this team is set up for success.
On a per-drive basis, Washington’s offense is 15th in time, 18th in plays, 24th in yards, and 25th in points. Not very exciting by any means, but it has gotten the job done.
Where Washington deserves a lot of credit is on defense. This unit was gashed by the Falcons’ ground game last week, which was a bit surprising, but I give more credit to Atlanta than blame to Washington.
This is one of the best run defenses in the league and they are improving week after week in coverage as well. On a per-drive basis, the Commanders’ defense is 1st in time, 1st in plays, 6th in yards, and 9th in points.
Washington is 4th in the NFL on third down and 13th in the red zone. This team is still susceptible to the big play, but they pressure the QB, make timely stops, and force turnovers. This unit is playing at a high level.
Washington wins ugly, but a win is a win. This is not an easy matchup for this team. The Commanders need to stay true to their formula to pull off a win at MetLife heading into their bye week.
Danny Dimes Must Limit Mistakes
I was bearish on the Giants heading into this season. This team proved me wrong with a mix of great coaching, a solid run game, and a “bend don’t break” defensive approach. However, even when this team was 7-3, it was obvious they were nowhere near as good as their record.
This offense relies on Saquon Barkley, and rightly so for a few reasons. For starters, this team is dealing with injuries to all their outside receivers, making Barkley by far the most dynamic player they have on offense.
Also, Daniel Jones is a turnover waiting to happen, so taking the ball out of his hands’ benefits this team. On a per-drive basis, the Giants are 6th in time and 6th in plays, but 15th in yards and 18th in points.
Jones has been sacked 33 times and he is 25th in net yards per attempt. This team is 28th in passing yards and 29th in passing touchdowns this season. New York is dealing with injuries to its offensive line, and to Barkley, which is scary facing this defense.
On defense, the Giants have done a great job overperforming their talent level. New York is 7th in third-down defense and 5th in red zone defense. However, they struggle to force turnovers and they are 30th in opposing yards per carry.
On a per-drive basis, this defense is 10th in time, 21st in plays, 24th in yards, and 16th in points. This unit struggles to get pressure and sacks which makes it tough for this team to apply pressure on their opponent.
Daniel Jones plays his best against the Commanders, and they need another one of those efforts to win this game. Jones can’t do it alone, but it is fair to see why this team is a slight underdog.
New York Giants vs Washington Commanders Prediction
Washington is the better team, but the Giants are the better-coached team. As I mentioned earlier, Daniel Jones shows out against the Commanders with his legs and his arm, so if he keeps up that form, it will be tough for Washington to win.
I think this is a close game, so the best thing to do here would be to tease up the Giants to +8.5. This fits the criteria needed for 6 points teasers in the NFL, and I find it hard to see this team losing by 9.
Prediction: Take New York Giants +8.5 in 6-Point Teaser
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 13
Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed New York Giants vs Washington Commanders in Week 13 among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 13 games, including this New York Giants vs Washington Commanders showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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