NFL Week 13 Betting Preview
Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, SuperBook Sports releases their look-ahead lines for the following week, about 10-12 days before those games kick-off. Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly offers his analysis of the NFL Week 13 opening lines, and what bettors should be watching for in this weekend’s games.
NFL Week 13 as of Thursday, November 23 | Courtesy of SuperBook Sports |
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Buffalo Bills -5.5 at New England Patriots | o/u 45.5 |
Green Bay Packers -2.5 at Chicago Bears | o/u 44 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 at Atlanta Falcons | o/u 42 |
New York Jets +3 at Minnesota Vikings | o/u 41.5 |
Jacksonville Jaguars PK at Detroit Lions | o/u 49.5 |
Tennessee Titans +7 at Philadelphia Eagles | o/u 45.5 |
Cleveland Browns -4.5 at Houston Texans | o/u 43.5 |
Washington Commanders -1.5 at New York Giants | o/u 42 |
Denver Broncos +6.5 at Baltimore Ravens | o/u 41 |
Miami Dolphins +5 at San Francisco 49ers | o/u 46 |
Seattle Seahawks -3 at Los Angeles Rams | o/u 42.5 |
Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Las Vegas Raiders | o/u 48 |
Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Cincinnati Bengals | o/u 51 |
Indianapolis Colts +9.5 at Dallas Cowboys | o/u 45 |
New Orleans Saints +6.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | o/u 42.5 |
Using NFL Look-Ahead Lines
Every week, before I look at the spreads and totals for the upcoming week, I set my own spreads and totals based on my power rankings so I can compare them to the SuperBook’s lines.
This process is a great exercise for both professional and new bettors, and I recommend all NFL bettors attempt to set their own lines. Taking these steps allows me to check the strength of my power ratings, find edges, and build an understanding of how the market views each team from week to week.
After that week’s games are completed, I readjust my spreads and totals based on the new information from that past week, then I compare these numbers to the updated spreads and totals for that week.
Using that information, I have a picture painted of where I thought spreads and total should sit in the first place if I believe these numbers will rise or fall, and if I have an edge over the market or if I am completely mispriced compared to the market.
NFL Week 13 Odds Analysis
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
My Projections: Buffalo -7, o/u 45.5
SuperBook Look-ahead: Buffalo -5.5 o/u 45.5
I was on point with the total here but off on the spread. Bill Belichick has his defense playing at a high level so I can see why SuperBook has this number where it is. The Patriots have done well against the Bills in the past and this should be a good game. I agree with SuperBook’s line here.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
My Projections: Green Bay -4, 44
SuperBook Look-ahead: Green Bay -2.5 o/u 44
Again, I am on point with the total here but slightly off on the spread. I expect this line to reopen closer to my numbers. Justin Fields may not be able to play and while the Packers have issues, they own the Bears. This line at 2.5 will go up and is too low.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons
My Projections: Atlanta -2, o/u 42
SuperBook Look-ahead: Atlanta -1, o/u 42
Another game, another spot on total. I am slightly off on the spread here and I think this line will reopen right in the middle. The Steelers will be coming off a short week and Atlanta has a tough matchup in Week 12. There should not be too much movement in this game.
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings
My Projections: Minnesota -3.5, o/u 43
SuperBook Look-ahead: Minnesota -3, o/u 41.5
I was very close with the spread here and slightly off on the total. The Jets cannot move the football but the Vikings are not a good team either. 3 points seem like the perfect middle ground for these two teams. However, I do expect this total to creep up as the Vikings’ defense is bad and the Jets make be making a QB change.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions
My Projections: Jacksonville -3, 50
SuperBook Look-ahead: Jacksonville PK, o/u 49.5
I have the Jaguars rated higher in my numbers so I gave them three points, but this number makes sense also. The Lions are playing a much better brand of football and they are better at home. I can see the Jaguars being favorites, but it may never touch Jacksonville -3.
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles
My Projections: Philadelphia -6.5, 43
SuperBook Look-ahead: Philadelphia -7, o/u 45.5
I was close on the spread and the total here but I actually expect the spread to come down. How many times can the Titans prove they are legit while still being disrespected by the market? It seems like Week 13 will be another instance of this, and I expect the Titans to reopen as smaller underdogs.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
My Projections: Cleveland -3.5, o/u 44
SuperBook Look-ahead: Cleveland -4.5, o/u 43.5
I was close on the spread and the total here and, to be honest, I do not know what to expect. This will be the first game Deshawn Watson starts and it is unknown what form he will be in. This could either be a Browns decisive win or a Texans upset win, nothing would shock me.
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
My Projections: New York -3, o/u 42.5
SuperBook Look-ahead: Washington -1.5, o/u 42
I thought the market would have less respect for the Commanders, but clearly, I was wrong. I have Washington rated higher in my power rankings. I agree with this line and I would not be surprised to see it flip-flop all week until this game kicks off.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
My Projections: Baltimore -3.5, o/u 41
SuperBook Look-ahead: Baltimore -6.5, o/u 41
I was on point with the total here but off on the spread. The Ravens are much better than the Broncos but Denver’s defense could give Lamar Jackson problems. At first glance, 6.5 seems to be too many points and I expect this line to drop.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
My Projections: San Francisco -3.5, o/u 48
SuperBook Look-ahead: San Francisco -5, o/u 46
I was off on the spread and total here and I like the SuperBook’s numbers better. Miami is overrated and the 49ers’ defense should be able to give them issues. This is a revenge game for Miami’s head coach, but I am not sure that aspect will move the line.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
My Projections: Seattle -3, o/u 43
SuperBook Look-ahead: Seattle -3, o/u 42.5
I was on point with the spread and the total here. Since it is a divisional game I do not expect a ton of movement, but the Seahawks are certainly the superior team in this matchup.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
My Projections: Los Angeles -3, o/u 47
SuperBook Look-ahead: Las Vegas -3, o/u 48
I have these numbers flipped around, and I am not sure why SuperBook has them this way in the first place. The Raiders are looking like one of the worst teams in football while the Chargers are in the middle of the pack. This line makes no sense to me and I expect a new favorite when this game re-opens.
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
My Projections: Kansas City -3, o/u 48
SuperBook Look-ahead: Kansas City -3, o/u 51
I was on point with the spread here but slightly off on the total. I expect this total to come down closer to my numbers. If Chase plays, maybe not, but if he doesn’t, these teams are both solid enough on defense to keep this total below 50 points for the game.
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys
My Projections: Dallas -7.5, o/u 42.5
SuperBook Look-ahead: Dallas -9.5, o/u 45
Dallas looks like a juggernaut and I actually like the SuperBook’s line better than mine. Dallas’ defensive line will give Indy trouble and I can see this being a two-score game. I think this game will reopen closer to what the SuperBook has than my numbers.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My Projections: Tampa Bay -3.5, o/u 44
SuperBook Look-ahead: Tampa Bay -6.5, o/u 42.5
I was off on the total and the spread here but I expect these numbers to reopen closer to my projections. While the Saints have had issues this season this team still has the Buccaneers’ number since Tom Brady joined the team.
Interested in placing a bet on the NFL Week 13 point spreads or totals? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 risk-free bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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