NFL Week 5 Betting Preview
Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, SuperBook Sports releases their look-ahead lines for the following week, about 10-12 days before those games kick off. Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly offers his analysis of the NFL Week 5 opening lines, and what bettors should be watching for in this weekend’s games.
NFL Week 5 as of Tuesday, Sept. 29 | Courtesy of SuperBook Sports |
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Denver Broncos -2.5 vs Indianapolis Colts | o/u 43 |
Green Bay Packers -7.5 vs New York Giants (In London) | o/u 40.5 |
New Orleans Saints -6.5 vs Seattle Seahawks | o/u 40.5 |
Jacksonville Jaguars -7 vs Houston Texans | o/u 43.5 |
Buffalo Bills -13 vs Pittsburgh Steelers | o/u 47.5 |
Tampa Bay Bucs -8.5 vs Atlanta Falcons | o/u 47.5 |
Minnesota Vikings -6.5 vs Chicago Bears | o/u 43 |
Washington Commanders pick’em vs Tennessee Titans | o/u 42.5 |
Miami Dolphins -6 at New York Jets | o/u 45.5 |
Los Angeles Chargers -2 at Cleveland Browns | o/u 48 |
New England Patriots -2 vs Detroit Lions | o/u 44 |
San Francisco -3 at Carolina Panthers | o/u 39 |
Philadelphia Eagles -4 at Arizona Cardinals | o/u 48.5 |
Los Angeles Rams -7 vs Dallas Cowboys | o/u 46 |
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals | o/u 48.5 |
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 vs Las Vegas Raiders | o/u 50.5 |
Using NFL Look-Ahead Lines
Every week, before I look at the spreads and totals for the upcoming week, I set my own spreads and totals based on my power rankings so I can compare them to the SuperBook’s lines. This process is a great exercise for both professional and new bettors, and I recommend all NFL bettors attempt to set their own lines. Taking these steps allows me to check the strength of my power ratings, find edges, and build an understanding of how the market views each team from week to week.
After the Week 4 games are completed, I readjust my spreads and totals based on the new information from that past week, then I compare these numbers to the updated spreads and totals for that week.
Using that information, I have a picture painted of where I thought spreads and total should sit in the first place, if I believe these numbers will rise or fall, and if I have an edge over the market or if I am completely mispriced compared to the market.
NFL Week 5 Odds Analysis
Thursday Night Football: – Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
My Projections: Denver -2.5; o/u 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Denver -2.5; o/u 43
I was on-point predicting this spread, and I was just a point off of the total. Knowing that I value these two teams the same way oddsmakers do means I have a good understanding of how the market views these two teams, but since I am spot on, this may not be a game I have an edge on. The Colts play the Titans in Week 4 and the Broncos play the Raiders. I anticipate both Indy and Denver getting wins in Week 4, so barring any injuries, I expect this spread to stick after this week.
New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers (In London)
My Projections: Green Bay -8.5; o/u 41.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Green Bay -7.5; o/u 40.5
This matchup will be played in London, so no team will have a home-field advantage. Given the opening odds for this game, barring injuries, I do not expect much change in these numbers. Even if the Giants beat the Bears in Week 4, we have already seen the Packers destroy Chicago. So I do not think the market will put much stock in that, if that occurs. Green Bay faces the Patriots with a backup QB in Week 4 and given they are already a 7.5-point favorite in Week 5, I do not expect any change.
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints
My Projections: New Orleans -4.5; o/u 41
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: New Orleans -6.5; o/u 40.5
The Seahawks have shown their true colors in the past few weeks. Simply put, they are a bad football team. On the other hand, the Saints have struggled, but their defense is still sharp. Given that this matchup is in New Orleans, and the Saints have a better roster, I expect this line to stay put. If after Week 4 the Saints are still -6 or -6.5 favorites, New Orleans becomes a great addition to a Week 5 teaser.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
My Projections: Jacksonville -6; o/u 48
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Jacksonville -7; o/u 43.5
I am very far off the total right now, which leads me to believe that I am wrong and not the market. The Jaguars have one of the most underrated defenses in football, and the Texans have a problem scoring. However, given that this is a divisional game, I would not be shocked by any outcome. I expect this total to go up to 44.5 points, but I do not think I have an edge on the over.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
My Projections: Buffalo -6; o/u 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Buffalo -13; o/u 47.5
Boy, am I off on the spread. I would not advocate for taking a wager a week in advance in football because injuries are so common, but I know this line will fall. Pittsburgh beat the Bills last year and Buffalo is banged up in the secondary. The Bills are a juggernaut and they are better at home, but I think Mike Tomlin will have Pittsburgh ready for this game. I expect this line to drop and reopen closer to Buffalo -10 after Week 4.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My Projections: Tampa Bay -5; o/u 42
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Tampa Bay -8.5; o/u 47.5
This is another spread and total that I think will both drop. Brady has had the Falcons’ number since he got to Tampa Bay, but even Brady himself would admit he is not the same player right now. Atlanta plays hard and is better on defense than people think. I expect this to reopen at Tampa Bay -6.5 and the total to drop to 44.5 after the Falcons play a good Browns team and the Bucs get humbled by the Chiefs in Week 4.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
My Projections: Minnesota -7; o/u 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Minnesota -6.5; o/u 43
No one expected the Bears to be 2-1 through three weeks, and the market still does not respect them. On the other hand, the Vikings have had two good outings and one dud this season. The Bears should play them close, but I’d expect these numbers to stay the same barring any major injuries in Week 4.
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders
My Projections: Tennessee -3; o/u 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Pick’Em; o/u 42.5
This is a game to keep your eye on. I expect Washington to win and cover in Week 4 and I expect the Titans to lose but cover in Week 4. How will this affect the reopened line? Well, for starters, both of these teams’ strengths (defensive lines) have an advantage over both of these teams’ weaknesses (offensive lines). I think this game will go to Tennessee -2, and I think that may be a good bet as well.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
My Projections: Miami -6; o/u 44
SuperBook’s Lookahead: Miami -6; o/u 45.5
Looking at this matchup, I already see a potential trap game. I think the Dolphins will cover in Week 4, and I think the Jets are doomed for disaster, but this game screams trap. In my rankings, Miami should be -10, but I fell on -6 given how I expected the market to view this game. I was right, and while I am happy about that, I do not think it bodes well for Dolphins’ bettors. If this game stays at -6 all week, which it may, I would lean Jets. However, my numbers say it should close at Miami -8.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
My Projections: Los Angeles -3; o/u 50
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Los Angeles -2; o/u 48
The Chargers cannot avoid the injury bug and they are on a downward spiral early in the season. The Browns had their one horrible loss of the season, but they have been well coached and have executed in all three phases of the game. Given how close my numbers are, and given my outlook for each team’s Week 4 matchup, I do not expect much movement in this line whatsoever.
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots
My Projections: Detroit -2.5; o/u 46
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: New England -2; o/u 44
This is a game to keep your eye on. Some books had this open at a pick’em, but the SuperBook has the Patriots as favorites. New England will be trotting out a backup quarterback and Dan Campbell knows the Patriots well. If any of these teams are 1.5 or 2.5-point underdogs to close, I would take them in a teaser. New England has a slight advantage since they know how to rush Goff, but the Patriots’ defensive line is not as strong as it once was.
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
My Projections: San Francisco -3; o/u 41
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: San Francisco -3; o/u 39
I am not surprised that I am spot on for the look-ahead for this matchup. Baker Mayfield and Jimmy G. fold under pressure, and I expect a ton of that when these two teams play. Both of these teams have great defensive lines and the run game will be nonexistent. I do not expect these numbers to move heavily in either direction.
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
My Projections: Philadelphia -4; o/u 50
Super Book’s Look-Ahead: Philadelphia -4; o/u 48.5
This is another matchup where I do not anticipate much movement. The Eagles are on fire and they have the roster to back up their play. The Cardinals are on a downward spiral and they have a tough Week 4 matchup. If anything, I see the Eagles closing closer to -6. Philly has a team that walls what the Cardinals do, so it makes sense they are favorites and for this line to increase.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
My Projections: Los Angeles -4.5; o/u 47
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Los Angeles -7; o/u 46
I am slightly shocked the Rams are this big of favorites, but at the same time, it makes sense. I expect the Rams to close closer to -6.5, but they should still be priced as high as they are. I expect Dallas to lose in Week 4. Regardless of how the Rams fare in Week 4, this number should not move too much at all, unless Dak Prescott is healthy and can suit up. Time will tell, but I like the Rams to reopen as at least 5-point favorites.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
My Projections: Baltimore -3; o/u 52
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Baltimore -3.5; o/u 48.5
I expect this total to come closer to 52 than to 48. I think the spread is priced perfectly and will not move to below Baltimore -3, so my focus is on the total. These two teams, at their best, are good defensively. But they are not at their best right now. I anticipate these two teams to have high-scoring games again in Week 4 which will have oddsmakers bringing their totals higher when they reopen.
Monday Night Football – Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
My Projections: Kansas City -6; o/u 54
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Kansas City -6.5; o/u 50.5
This is another game where I expect this total to increase. The Raiders have a new head coach and defensive coordinator that are not adept at stopping Patrick Mahomes. On the other hand, the Raiders’ offense is better than it was in years’ past so points should be plenty on Monday Night. After Week 4, I expect this total to close closer to 52.5 with two-way action on both sides.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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