Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders Betting Preview: Game Analysis
The 4-5 Commanders head to Philly on Monday night to take on the undefeated Eagles in primetime. Will the Eagles remain unbeaten this season? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles Week 10 Monday Night Football betting pick.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders Betting Pick – What Are the Best Odds?
Monday, November 14 | Monday Night Football Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Philadelphia Eagles -11 vs Washington Commanders |
Total: | o/u 44 Points |
Location: | Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA |
Game Time: | 8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | ESPN |
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders Analysis
In Week 3, the Eagles went into Washington and blew the doors off the Commanders. Carson Wentz was sacked nine times and the Eagles left FedEx Field with a 24-8 victory. Fast forward to Week 10 and the Eagles are still undefeated and Washington is still having issues at quarterback.
Though the Eagles blew out Washington the first time these two teams met, and the spread is 11 points, I expect this to be a good game.
Commanding Attention
As we all know, Washington made a move for Carson Wentz this offseason and through 9 weeks they have a negative ROI on that investment.
Taylor Heinicke has been under center for Washington since Week 7 as Wentz is out with an injury to his throwing hand. And after the past three weeks, it is clear that no one on Washington’s roster can solve their quarterback woes.
Heinicke brings a different skill set to the table, and I think it will help him fare better against the Eagles this time around. As I previously mentioned, Wentz was sacked nine times in the first meeting with Philly, and while a few of those sacks were due to bad blocking up-front, others were because Wentz is a statue in the pocket.
Heinicke is more athletic and he can evade the rush. However, Wentz has a cannon, and Heinicke has a noodle arm, and there are a lot of times when Heinicke makes poor decisions which leads to turnovers as well as under thrown deep balls.
This Philly defensive front and secondary are too damn good for Heinicke to be reckless with the football. With that being said, while Heinicke has lead Washington to two wins and a close loss, their offense is still one of the worst in the league.
On a per-drive basis, Washington is 32nd in field position, 26th in time, 27th in plays, 28th in yards, and 29th in points.
On defense, Washington has really stepped it up. They currently have one of the best run defenses in the entire NFL and Washington is near the leaders of sacks and pressure rates on opposing quarterbacks.
On a per-drive basis, Washington’s defense, despite being 25th in starting field position, is 1st in time, 1st in plays, 7th in yards, and 11th in points.
Washington is 3rd in third-down defense and 7th in red zone defense. This unit finally seems to be reaching its potential and Washington’s defense has carried this team over the last month of the season.
In order for Washington to put up a fight, Heinicke needs to not turn the ball over and the Commanders need to establish the run. On defense, this team needs to keep doing exactly what they are doing. Stop the run, limit big plays, and pressure the quarterback.
Phenomenal in Philadelphia
It is not a secret why the Eagles are undefeated. They are well coached, they have a loaded roster, and their quarterback is playing lights out.
Pair that with an easy schedule so far, and you have a legitimate unbeaten team with a Super Bowl contender upside. This team is no fluke.
At this time last season, it seemed like Jalen Hurts was just a great athlete with a myriad of limitations as an NFL quarterback. Now, he is in the MVP race and he is the engine that ignites one of the best offenses in football.
The Eagles have an amazing offensive line that helps with pass protection and run blocking, but Hurts’ ability to limit mistakes and make big throws this season has been impressive to watch.
On a per-drive basis, Philly is 6th in drive time, 7th in plays, 5th in yards, and 2nd in points. Also, this offense is 4th in the NFL on third down and 5th in the red zone. It is hard to beat a team that is this efficient with the football.
When looking at the Eagles, it is important to note that they are a complete football team. Their defense does just as much for this team as their offense does.
With no Jordan Davis, the Eagles can be run on, but overall, this is still a stout unit. Philly is 4th in the NFL in points against and 3rd in yards against on defense, and on a per-drive basis, this defense is 11th in time, 10th in yards, and 4th in points. Furthermore, they are 12th in 3rd down percentage as well as 13th in red zone percentage.
When the Eagles are on, they fire from all cylinders. This team has true studs on every level and they pose a threat to every team they play.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders Prediction
While the Eagles are undoubtedly better than the Commanders, 11 points is a lot of points for an NFL game. Philly covered this spread easily the first time these two teams met, and the game went under with ease, but these are not the same two teams that faced off in Week 3.
Washington has a new quarterback that can hurt Philly by making plays with his legs. The Eagles have improved week in and week out, but now they are missing their premiere run defender. Washington’s defense is ascending and I think they can limit the explosiveness of the Eagles in this game.
The Eagles team total is 27.5 points, and I like the under. Washington has allowed this many points one time this season, and even when the Eagles dismantled them in Week 3, they did not hit this number.
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles Team Total Under 27.5 -110
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 10
Don’t just stop at this Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons betting pick! Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed this clash between the Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 10 games, including this Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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