Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview: Game Analysis
On Sunday afternoon, the 3-2-1 Colts head to Nashville to take on the 3-2 Titans. Will the Titans win their fourth in a row and sweep the season series against the Colts? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Week 7 betting pick.
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Betting Pick – What Are the Best Odds?
Sunday, October 23 | NFL Week 7 Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Tennessee Titans -2.5 vs Indianapolis Colts |
Total: | o/u 42 Points |
Location: | Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN |
Game Time: | 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | CBS |
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Analysis
The Titans won their third game in a row heading into the bye week, and now they look to extend their winning streak to four games against the Colts. Indy started the season off slow but they are coming off back-to-back wins and they are over .500 on the season.
Tennessee beat the Colts 24-17 in Indy in Week 4, and the Colts are looking for revenge. Not only does this matchup have implications for each team now, but if the Titans win, they have a much easier path to lock in the AFC South crown. The Colts need a win here, but are they good enough to get it?
Taylor’s Health Determines Colts Offense
This Colts team had a lot of hype coming into the season, and they even beat the Chiefs, but they are still not a scary team. They put on an offensive show in Week 6, so the Colts showed they can still play, and I think this team is showing signs of life and will be competitive moving forward.
Matt Ryan has been sacked 21 times which is 3rd in the NFL and their offensive line is 23rd in adjusted sack rate. This team hasn’t had Jon Taylor for two weeks, and it shows in their game script.
Indy throws the ball 65% of the time which gives Matt Ryan more chances to be sacked or throw an INT (he has 7 this season). The Colts’ offense stats are bad, but on a per-drive basis, they are not horrible. The Colts are 11th in drive time, 6th in plays, and 16th in yards, but 25th in points, which is a killer.
The Colts have generated 15 sacks this season, but they only get pressure at a 22.4% clip. Despite having a higher DVOA in rushing defense, the Colts are 10th in passing yards allowed and 21st in rushing yards allowed.
On a per-drive basis, the Colt’s defense is 8th in time, 7th in plays, 6th in yards, and 11th in points. They are great on third down, but they struggle in the red zone. The Colts get shredded in the first half of games – they have allowed more first-quarter points than second-half points so far this season.
In order for the Colts to continue their winning ways, they need to keep their intensity at the ends of games but pick it up at the beginning of games.
Titans Lean on Underrated Defense
The Titans won three straight games heading into their bye week, and they are healthy and well-rested coming into this game. The Titans are 3-2, and could easily be 4-2, but how good are they? The Titans find ways to win, which is great, but none of their wins have come in convincing fashion.
Aside from the game against the Bills, the Titans have been in a position to win every game, but they did not outplay their opponents.
In their three straight wins, their opponent outgained them significantly and they only pulled out wins due to winning the turnover battle. On a per-drive basis, this offense is 20th in time, 30th in plays, 30th in yards, and 19th in points.
Tannehill has thrown three picks and he has been sacked 12 times, so this offensive line has been doing well in protection. Tennessee still looks to pound the ball on offense and they are almost 50/50 in rushing plays and passing plays.
Much like the Colts, the Titans’ defense is what is keeping them alive. Tennessee has let up the 2nd most touchdowns and they are last in net yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks. On a per-drive basis, the Titans are 22nd in time, 14th in plays, 29th in yards, and 22nd in points.
They have created 13 sacks so far this season and they create pressure on 22.8% of drop backs. This team locks in on third down and in the red zone – the Titans are 2nd in third-down defense and 9th in red zone defense.
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction
The Titans are coming off a bye week, but I am not sure how big of an advantage that is. Tennessee has the Colts number over the past few seasons, but almost all of those games have been close.
Vrabel is a better coach than Reich, but the Colts seem to have momentum brewing and their offense finally woke up last week.
Neither of these teams plays a particularly pretty brand of football, but each team has shown they can be effective. The Colts allow fewer points and yards per game than the Titans do and the gain yards more frequently as well.
This spread is 2.5 points and it makes total sense, but I have to go with the Colts here. They are not a sexy pick, but the Titans are more lucky than good to be 3-2 so far this season.
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts Moneyline (also a great 6-point teaser leg at 2.5)
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 7
Don’t just stop at this Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts betting pick! Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed this AFC South between the Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 7 games, including this Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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