Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans Betting Pick: Game Analysis
The Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans will meet in a cross-conference clash for this Sunday’s NFL week 5 slate. Can the Commanders bounce back after a dismal showing the past three weeks or will the Titans extend their winning streak to three? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans betting pick.
Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans Betting Pick – What Are the Best Odds?
Sunday, October 9 | NFL Week 5 Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Washington Commanders +2.5 vs Tennessee Titans |
Total: | o/u 42.5 Points |
Location: | FedEx Field in Landover, MD |
Game Time: | 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | CBS |
Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans Betting Pick : Game Preview
On Sunday afternoon, the 2-2 Titans head to Landover Maryland to take on the 1-3 Washington Commanders. Tough game, tougher still to make a great Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans Betting Pick, but we’re diving in!
Tennessee is coming off back-to-back wins against Las Vegas and Indianapolis while the Commanders are coming off embarrassing outings against the Eagles and the Cowboys.
After Washington’s embarrassing performance in Dallas and a big Titans win on the road against the Colts, the Titans reopened at TEN -3 and the total dropped to 42. As of writing this, the consensus line is now TEN -2.5 and the total is 42.
Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans Betting Pick : Henry Rounding Back Into Form
Mike Vrabel was the coach of the year in the NFL last season, and not just because the Titans secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but because he is an excellent head coach.
After starting the season 0-2 with an embarrassing loss to Buffalo mixed in, Tennessee looks as if they have righted the ship, especially after injuries to Taylor Lewan, Armani Hooker, and Treylon Burks.
However, while this team is one of the best coached in the NFL, they still have their flaws. In four games so far this season, the Titans have not scored a single point in the fourth quarter and they only have seven points in the second half of games, and those seven points came in Week 1.
On the flip side, the Titans have scored 35 first-quarter points and 33 second-quarter points in four games. Against the Raiders and the Colts, the Titans were able to sustain the big leads they build.
However, this is not sustainable. The Titans rush the ball on 47.7% of plays since they have King Henry and their offensive line is built for the run game.
Derrick Henry looks like himself again after a 114-yard game against the Colts and an 85-yard game against the Raiders. In the passing game, the Titans have allowed just seven sacks this season, and Robert Woods is their leader in receptions (13) and yards (167).
The Titans, due to a lack of receivers and the strength of Henry, have an offense based on the run game and they only have one play of 40+ yards this season. The Titans’ offense is not explosive.
The Titans have allowed 101 points this season, but that number is skewed after losing to the Bills 41-7. In the other three games, the Titans have allowed 20, 24, and 17 points.
The Titans’ defense is 25th in the NFL in yards allowed per game, 28th in points allowed, and 28th in fourth-down percentage. The good news is, the Titans are 13th in red zone defense and 5th in third-down defense, two very important metrics.
Tennessee has compiled 10 sacks this season and their strength is in their defensive line. The Titans’ defense is No. 1 in rushing defense.
Teams find success passing short against the Titans since their defensive line is great at causing pressure. The Titans allowed a 67.8 completion percentage and 7.7 yards per attempt, which is third to last in the NFL.
On special teams, the Titans have the 2nd highest net average punt yards and they have pinned opponents in the 20-yard line seven times. However, the Titans have allowed 136 punt return yards which are the most in the NFL.
Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans Betting Pick : Washington Not Commanding Much
The Commanders are 28th in the NFL in offensive DVOA and it is not hard to see why when watching the game or looking at the stat sheet. Carson Wentz has been sacked the most times in the NFL and the Commanders do not trust him to work down the field.
Their offensive line is in shambles and Wentz does that unit no favors whatsoever. The Commanders have scored just 18 points in their last two games and they look atrocious. Washington’s offense is 30th in points per drive and 27th in rushing and passing DVOA this season, which suggests a Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans Betting Pick might include an under! Read on to find out.
Wentz has thrown five interceptions which is 2nd in the NFL. Washington has weapons, but if you cannot get the ball to them, that does not matter. Washington’s offensive line, mixed with Wentz’s horrific pocket presence, has fans holding their breath every time Wentz drops back to pass.
Washington’s defense is 24th in the NFL in DVOA and they are 30th in TD passes allowed, 23rd in yards allowed, and 20th in scoring. Washington has just one interception this season for their lone turnover forced. The Commanders have allowed 61 first-half points this season and 107 total points in four games.
Teams have had success throwing the ball all over the field against Washington. Their defensive line is playing well, they have nine sacks on the season, but their secondary cannot stop getting penalized and allowing big plays.
However, Washington’s defense is 1st in average drive time and 1st in plays allowed, meaning when they need quick stops, they can get them.
Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans Prediction
The Titans’ strengths defensively are in pressuring the QB, stopping the run, and shutting teams down on third down and in the red zone.
The Commander’s strengths offensively are more or less nonexistent, but they would be in running the ball and in the quick passing game. The latter helps Washington in this matchup, but the former is a major cause for concern.
On the flip side, the Titans’ offense is banged up and the Commanders’ defense, while playing poorly at times, is not as bad as it seems. They should be able to contain Henry as well as pressure Tannehill. I think this is a good matchup for Washington.
Lastly, based on coaching alone, this is a spot to back the Titans. Rivera seems to have lost the locker room, Wentz inspires no confidence, and the Titans are the better team. The fact that this line is 2.5 is a little fishy, but I expect the line to close at TEN -3.
The Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans Betting Pick is:
Prediction: Tennessee Titans -3
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 5
Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed this cross-conference clash between the Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans among other games giving their expert betting analysis
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 5 games, including this Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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