Ian Cameron Capping
MLB: 20* Main Event: Texas Over 8.5 -110 (969)
We have two suspect starters taking the mound for their respective teams in this game tonight making the Over a clear choice for me between Texas and Seattle and a bet worthy of elevating to 2 unit 20* MLB AL Total Of The Month status. Mike Minor is on the regression warpath at the moment as the Texas lefty is getting worse with each start and I have concerns that as his innings continue to mount for a pitcher that is not accustomed to being a full time starter, things will continue to unravel for him. Minor has surrendered 12 runs on 23 hits over his last 19 innings of work and he has just 12 K's during that span. Seattle has hit lefties fairly well this season so this is matchup that should bode well for the Mariners lineup to score runs in bunches against Minor and a very shaky Rangers bullpen behind him. On the flip side, Mike Leake is what he is an average pitcher who is capable of pitching alright but also capable of getting lit up. Leake has been inconsistent this season entering this game with a subpar 5.72 ERA and several current Texas hitters have solid numbers in their careers against Leake including Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara. Seattle and Texas both have bullpen ERA's higher than 4 which should give both teams the chance to score runs late in this game after both starters depart. I think both teams can get to 4 runs in this game which would be good enough to cash our ticket and the 8.5 number provides the value necessary for a step up level Over wager.