Big Ticket: Take Detroit (#968)
The betting markets have been asleep at the wheel when it comes to both of these teams! The Tigers were widely expected to compete for last place coming into the campaign, while the Twins were expected to compete for a playoff spot. Neither preseason betting market prediction has rung true; yet the markets continue to lag behind – the Tigers rank in the top quartile of MLB in terms of profitability YTD, while the Twins rank in the bottom quartile.
To call the Twins a miserable road team would not be an overstatement. Minnesota's very young squad has struggled mightily on the highway all season – only the Orioles have fewer road wins than the Twins 11 as we sit here in mid-June. Minnesota has lost six of their last seven away from home, scoring three runs or less in five of those six defeats. It's not like Minnesota is in good current form anyway – they just dropped four out of six at home to the White Sox and Angels.
Twins ‘tired re-tread' starter Jake Odorizzi has allowed 11 runs in 8.2 innings of work over his last two starts, and he's shown extreme vulnerability to the gopher ball all year, allowing 14 home runs in just 68 innings of work. Odorizzi is no innings eater either – he's yet to record a single out past the sixth inning all year. Behind him, Minnesota's bullpen has been problematic, with 15 losses and 12 blown saves already.
Tigers converted reliever Blaine Hardy won't have to face big bats Joe Mauer or Bryon Buxton, both languishing on the DL for Minnesota. Hardy's advanced metrics don't wow the wiseguys, but he's been dominant in each of his last two home starts, allowing just three combined runs on six hits over 13 innings of work, leading to a pair of Tigers victories. Expect more of the same tonight in a game that is mispriced enough to warrant a Big Ticket sized wager for Tuesday. Take the Tigers.